Well-Off-Declaration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.36K

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

91.5%

Resolved

176

Trades

292

lifetime

Volume

$77.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$265

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-12

last 05-21 00:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

78% 94% +$967

Politics

22% 81% +$405

Tech

0% 50% -$13

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-21).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes		-28	-$17	18¢	$-5	+$12	05-21 00:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	2	$6.5K	3,273	3,273	+0	Yes	+$36	04-03 13:59
will 20 24 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$5.4K	2,785	2,785	+0	No	+$195	03-31 13:33
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	11	$4.0K	2,181	1,933	+248	No	+$17	04-12 14:09
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt7	5	$3.5K	1,827	1,827	+0	Yes	+$132	03-03 12:19
will trump visit china by march 31	5	$3.2K	1,584	1,584	+0	No	+$5	03-30 23:31
will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt4	1	$2.6K	2,663	0	+2,663	Yes	+$76	03-06 13:30
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on april 19 2026	1	$2.6K	2,877	0	+2,877	Yes	+$292	04-21 13:04
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	8	$2.5K	1,271	1,271	+0	No	-$15	05-11 13:43
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	1	$2.3K	2,274	0	+2,274	Yes	+$12	04-10 12:30
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	10	$2.0K	1,217	1,217	+0	Yes	+$199	05-05 20:58
ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	2	$1.9K	1,998	0	+1,998	Yes	+$57	04-22 11:30
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	1	$1.7K	2,198	0	+2,198	No	+$490	04-14 12:45
will the bank of mexico announce no change at the march meeting	1	$1.3K	1,334	0	+1,334	No	+$40	03-26 19:00
will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	1	$1.2K	1,253	0	+1,253	Yes	+$13	03-24 12:45
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	7	$1.1K	654	654	+0	Yes	+$4	04-12 03:36
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	1	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	+$12	03-18 21:34
mtb quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 4	1	$970	990	0	+990	Yes	+$20	04-15 09:30
will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	1	$904	912	0	+912	No	+$9	03-24 12:45
amc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 24 2026 neg0pt25	2	$845	846	0	+846	Yes	+$1	02-24 03:25
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$843	1,437	1	+1,435	No	-$843	05-09 00:19
will vertiv holdings vrt be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	1	$825	833	0	+833	Yes	+$8	03-06 22:15
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be between 1pt0 and 1pt5	2	$722	723	0	+723	Yes	+$1	02-20 13:39
will the bank of israel increase the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	1	$659	660	0	+660	No	+$1	03-30 13:01
ftdr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 26 2026 0pt13	1	$647	671	0	+671	Yes	+$24	02-26 12:00
gpro quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 05 2026 0pt04	1	$647	660	0	+660	No	+$13	03-05 21:03
no change in the selic rate after bank of brazils march 2026 meeting	1	$647	694	0	+694	No	+$47	03-18 21:34
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	4	$627	925	0	+925	Yes	+$298	04-04 17:41
will 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	1	$606	612	0	+612	Yes	+$6	04-14 12:45
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	1	$588	883	0	+883	Yes	+$295	04-14 12:45
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	3	$576	326	326	+0	Yes	+$41	05-11 13:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 00:37:25	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x9a9e28…
05-21 00:37:18	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	28	61¢	$17	0xa7ee7b…
05-21 00:37:12	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	267	5¢	$13	0x23d558…
05-11 13:44:46	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	96¢	$63	0xc6f9b6…
05-11 13:44:38	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?	No	SELL	132	99¢	$131	0xf41d56…
05-11 13:44:27	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	93¢	$184	0xa15d99…
05-11 13:44:18	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	329	59¢	$194	0xd7a5a9…
05-11 13:43:59	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	326	95¢	$309	0x195546…
05-11 13:43:49	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	SELL	1,271	96¢	$1,226	0x7b18a1…
05-09 00:19:48	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x9c2c82…
05-08 12:30:08	Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	114	95¢	$108	0x5bee1f…
05-08 12:30:06	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	161	99¢	$160	0xc49e93…
05-08 12:30:06	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Yes	BUY	98	97¢	$95	0x3b3ea9…
05-08 12:30:06	Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	No	BUY	57	99¢	$57	0x2f5575…
05-07 20:01:03	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x830674…
05-07 11:00:04	Will Papa John's (PZZA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xbb7c4b…
05-07 01:26:13	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	65	61¢	$40	0x19f469…
05-07 01:25:45	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	65	61¢	$40	0xc9e133…
05-06 10:40:50	Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	273	100¢	$273	0xc27d6b…
05-05 21:58:14	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	59	6¢	$3	0x660cd0…
05-05 21:48:00	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	52	5¢	$3	0xf819f4…
05-05 21:41:20	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	34	5¢	$2	0xc69e9c…
05-05 21:22:58	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0x3e601c…
05-05 20:58:16	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x53d574…
05-05 20:58:12	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,217	92¢	$1,119	0x263fc1…
05-05 20:58:12	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x11ca2b…
05-05 20:57:06	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x674cb9…
05-05 20:13:18	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x585f70…
05-05 20:05:04	Will Electronic Arts (EA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	205	99¢	$203	0x69b131…
05-05 12:48:48	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	64	95¢	$61	0xf275b3…
05-05 12:47:06	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,437	59¢	$843	0xbc4271…
05-05 12:47:04	Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	373	100¢	$373	0x8fdbb0…
05-05 10:45:04	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xd189f4…
05-05 04:30:08	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	No	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x98f317…
05-05 04:30:08	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x2829b6…
05-04 20:15:04	Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc476fe…
05-04 20:05:04	Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	110	99¢	$108	0x550518…
05-04 20:05:04	Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	261	99¢	$258	0x20c7d6…
05-04 11:45:34	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	94¢	$62	0x6a044a…
05-01 10:30:06	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x2e4db1…
04-27 02:42:10	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$40	0xf42f69…
04-26 23:10:54	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0x898b85…
04-25 20:46:48	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	BUY	103	96¢	$100	0x4c40ce…
04-25 16:55:24	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	62	13¢	$8	0xece40d…
04-25 00:16:52	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	66	86¢	$57	0xfeeaf0…
04-24 19:07:02	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	62	69¢	$43	0x637db8…
04-24 18:06:26	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	195	80¢	$156	0x24e1a0…
04-24 18:05:00	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	Yes	BUY	66	90¢	$59	0x58527d…
04-24 17:06:36	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	132	85¢	$112	0x6cf31b…
04-24 17:03:22	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	Yes	BUY	152	100¢	$151	0x741406…
04-23 11:00:06	aal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 neg0pt46	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x3d7f3e…
04-22 20:53:16	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	BUY	177	99¢	$174	0xe70d74…
04-22 17:15:14	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	BUY	657	97¢	$637	0xf5bf36…
04-22 11:30:26	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	Yes	BUY	980	99¢	$970	0x7b3190…
04-22 11:30:18	ba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 neg0pt59	Yes	BUY	1,018	95¢	$970	0x1bc459…
04-21 13:04:06	will 50 59 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 662	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x9b4fac…
04-21 13:04:06	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on april 19 2026	Yes	BUY	2,877	90¢	$2,585	0x789729…
04-21 10:30:04	mmm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 1pt98	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x46e9b4…
04-20 00:41:32	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x75f774…
04-17 21:30:06	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?	No	BUY	132	99¢	$131	0x09c11e…
04-17 21:27:06	Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	No	BUY	194	99¢	$192	0x1d9e38…
04-17 00:23:04	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	581	21¢	$122	0x629d9f…
04-17 00:16:14	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	43	18¢	$8	0x591aac…
04-16 23:51:48	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	172	19¢	$33	0x9ff100…
04-16 23:50:40	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	65	21¢	$14	0x09cda5…
04-16 23:50:12	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	126	21¢	$27	0xb481d0…
04-16 01:20:24	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	107	43¢	$46	0x540c61…
04-15 23:52:38	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	126	42¢	$53	0xba7782…
04-15 23:19:18	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	188	43¢	$81	0x54c73a…
04-15 23:15:36	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	159	44¢	$70	0xf2d839…
04-15 22:33:52	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	86	43¢	$37	0x2acfe7…
04-15 21:20:16	Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	320	33¢	$106	0x5e57bb…
04-15 10:43:08	bac quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 1	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$29	0x23ac14…
04-15 10:29:36	pnc quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 3pt92	Yes	BUY	165	99¢	$163	0x5bb1e5…
04-15 09:30:12	mtb quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 4	Yes	BUY	990	98¢	$970	0xc15a1c…
04-14 22:38:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	49	80¢	$39	0x58f7a3…
04-14 22:37:54	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	57	68¢	$39	0x759c59…
04-14 22:37:32	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	92	48¢	$44	0x9ccd8f…
04-14 22:36:58	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	Yes	SELL	137	31¢	$43	0x8280ee…
04-14 22:23:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	57	69¢	$39	0x8601e9…
04-14 22:23:16	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	Yes	BUY	137	29¢	$39	0x34b02a…
04-14 22:23:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	92	43¢	$39	0x1333bb…
04-14 22:23:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	49	80¢	$40	0x0053e6…
04-14 19:02:02	will argentinas monthly inflation in march 2026 be between 3pt4 and 3pt6	Yes	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0xcba815…
04-14 19:02:00	will argentinas monthly inflation in march 2026 be between 3pt1 and 3pt3	No	BUY	265	73¢	$194	0x818e63…
04-14 12:45:09	will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	No	BUY	2,198	78¢	$1,708	0x739188…
04-14 12:45:09	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on april 12 2026	No	BUY	582	89¢	$517	0x58ec89…
04-14 12:45:09	will 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	Yes	BUY	612	99¢	$606	0x52756d…
04-14 12:45:09	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	883	67¢	$588	0x10ebbf…
04-14 10:28:51	wfc quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 1pt58	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x107c07…
04-12 14:09:45	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x6aa55e…
04-12 14:09:43	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	158	99¢	$156	0x940550…
04-12 03:36:13	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	654	84¢	$550	0x5c2031…
04-11 23:53:17	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	261	76¢	$198	0x1d2e44…
04-11 23:33:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	76	97¢	$74	0x5187a4…
04-11 00:26:51	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	98¢	$65	0x5e078c…
04-11 00:26:13	US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	99¢	$72	0x742a74…
04-11 00:22:39	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	SELL	132	94¢	$124	0x12b8c5…
04-10 19:38:35	US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	98¢	$65	0x780d5a…
04-10 19:38:17	US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	98¢	$84	0x8db06b…