Extra-Small-Tender — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$645

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

79.8%

Resolved

416

Trades

1,780

lifetime

Volume

$81.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

$119

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 11-14 07:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 182 days

Categories

Other

56% 92% -$767

Tech

44% 88% +$120

Politics

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No		+100	$99	100¢	$100	+$1	11-09 17:17
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?	No		+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$0	11-06 16:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	296	$15.3K	8,324	8,324	+0	Yes	+$53	06-18 09:30
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	176	$7.2K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	-$44	07-15 16:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	84	$5.0K	2,605	2,605	+0	Yes	+$11	05-22 09:03
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	104	$4.8K	2,700	2,700	+0	Yes	+$44	08-13 11:19
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	174	$4.7K	2,610	2,610	+0	Yes	-$74	09-23 10:11
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	15	$2.0K	1,064	1,064	+0	No	+$11	06-05 06:40
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	12	$1.1K	575	575	+0	No	+$23	03-30 08:52
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	7	$735	553	188	+365	No	+$5	04-20 04:35
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$601	378	378	+0	Yes	-$147	05-03 13:12
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	4	$594	300	300	+0	No	+$3	10-15 22:58
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?	4	$593	623	0	+623	No	+$29	06-03 11:48
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	4	$547	591	0	+591	No	+$44	04-24 02:59
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 160 179	3	$533	268	268	+0	No	+$2	03-31 16:35
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	10	$500	375	374	+1	Yes	-$184	04-24 01:42
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 180 199	9	$479	245	245	+0	No	+$10	04-03 14:58
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 160 179	3	$462	233	233	+0	No	+$2	04-07 01:45
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 160 179	3	$459	231	231	+0	No	+$2	04-09 15:33
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 180 199	2	$458	234	234	+0	No	+$9	04-12 10:45
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5?	17	$438	472	0	+472	Yes	+$34	05-05 08:33
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 180 199	3	$436	224	224	+0	No	+$5	04-08 01:03
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 160 179	3	$430	218	218	+0	No	+$5	04-03 07:47
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 200 219	10	$429	219	219	+0	No	+$7	04-05 01:53
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$420	444	0	+444	No	+$24	04-23 12:50
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	1	$414	426	0	+426	No	+$11	04-20 04:16
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	4	$412	420	0	+420	No	+$8	04-29 09:41
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	5	$411	214	214	+0	No	+$16	04-09 12:53
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt8t	7	$411	420	0	+420	No	+$9	06-07 23:49
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$398	248	247	+0	No	-$79	05-05 14:53
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	3	$392	205	205	+0	open	—	09-19 23:20
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$389	396	0	+396	No	+$7	04-24 01:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 07:54:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 14?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x74b873…
11-14 07:46:14	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 14?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb775af…
11-14 07:44:13	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 14?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x9b21c9…
11-14 04:01:22	Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x2444f2…
11-13 07:31:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on November 13?	Yes	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x8238a9…
11-13 06:34:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 13?	Yes	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x863ed6…
11-13 06:34:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 13?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xac544f…
11-12 16:06:31	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on November 12?	Yes	BUY	54	95¢	$52	0x746660…
11-12 07:41:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on November 12?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x12c4ae…
11-12 06:41:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 12?	Yes	BUY	51	94¢	$48	0xf01782…
11-10 14:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on November 10?	Yes	BUY	66	95¢	$62	0xe9d2ca…
11-10 04:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 10?	Yes	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xc270ac…
11-09 17:17:49	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0ce0a7…
11-08 14:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on November 8?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1ce78a…
11-08 08:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 7°C on November 8?	Yes	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0xac1857…
11-08 07:50:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 7°C on November 8?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xa6d23d…
11-06 16:13:49	Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x5fb8f1…
11-06 16:13:12	Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xad7b99…
11-06 06:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 6?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x7e6b12…
11-06 06:30:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 6?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xdb1df7…
11-03 19:02:13	Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x612e39…
11-03 19:02:12	Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x6a88af…
11-02 07:41:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	57	94¢	$54	0xe698f0…
11-01 17:00:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x87befd…
11-01 09:02:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0x68789c…
11-01 06:30:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x4c7cc2…
10-29 14:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xd5edfc…
10-29 09:00:20	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xb9d80a…
10-29 07:38:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	45	95¢	$43	0xaf2d23…
10-29 07:30:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	17	96¢	$17	0xe37c1a…
10-26 17:04:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x2ce624…
10-26 17:04:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x41ff4a…
10-26 17:03:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc9058e…
10-26 17:03:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9b1e1e…
10-26 08:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xbe6adb…
10-25 07:41:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0xae3899…
10-25 07:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xafda7e…
10-25 07:23:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x8d29c9…
10-24 20:47:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xbc7327…
10-24 20:45:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	53	93¢	$49	0x907c18…
10-24 20:44:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xa1a778…
10-24 07:30:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb398ea…
10-24 06:39:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x7104c7…
10-23 07:30:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x18a31d…
10-23 06:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x4f0f31…
10-23 04:12:02	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xd141dc…
10-22 16:01:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x95526c…
10-22 16:01:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1c4011…
10-22 16:00:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb0c053…
10-22 16:00:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x00471f…
10-21 09:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xf61b16…
10-21 07:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x18143e…
10-20 16:00:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xa6ec13…
10-20 16:00:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xe5e319…
10-20 14:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0x1661a9…
10-20 09:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	99	97¢	$96	0xeaae38…
10-20 09:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0xaf2206…
10-20 07:49:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x0aa71b…
10-19 16:01:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5598df…
10-19 16:01:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6bdd5d…
10-19 16:00:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x878c87…
10-18 15:03:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x21f2a7…
10-18 15:02:42	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x1502de…
10-18 09:13:26	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9ee7eb…
10-18 09:13:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x0737ce…
10-17 07:30:14	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	34	96¢	$32	0x55ceb4…
10-16 09:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa122db…
10-16 09:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x7f3d0a…
10-16 06:30:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xac041a…
10-15 22:58:19	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$55	0xb050f3…
10-15 08:11:47	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x3e75bc…
10-15 07:34:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	33	93¢	$30	0x1ed4a5…
10-15 07:33:55	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x92186a…
10-15 07:33:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xbe9d6d…
10-15 07:33:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x0df224…
10-15 07:12:34	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xdc9183…
10-14 21:46:48	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x521326…
10-14 08:12:11	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	59	97¢	$57	0xa7bf2e…
10-11 04:02:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	36	95¢	$35	0x32fcf7…
10-11 02:23:24	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xeabe37…
10-10 09:02:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x812cab…
10-10 09:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xdab898…
10-10 07:30:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x8ea7e2…
10-10 07:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xf5cf5e…
10-10 04:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x7a9fde…
10-10 04:50:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x429d89…
10-10 04:49:49	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa6d396…
10-10 04:49:22	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xcd6e8a…
10-10 04:48:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xf5f97e…
10-08 08:19:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x47fab2…
10-08 08:16:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x2514e4…
10-08 07:44:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	23	97¢	$23	0x444838…
10-08 07:42:03	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$11	0xd93a9f…
10-07 07:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x3acde6…
10-07 06:31:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe23962…
10-07 06:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	93	94¢	$88	0x411ab6…
10-06 16:00:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$25	0x614799…
10-06 08:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xf2c4db…
10-03 16:00:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0xe164d9…
10-02 09:02:32	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$25	0x16bbb7…