Scarce-Swivel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$43

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

67.4%

Resolved

Trades

268

lifetime

Volume

$43.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$161

Open exposure

$298

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 08-23 13:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

59% 96% +$29

Politics

40% 94% +$13

Crypto

1% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No		+301	$277	98¢	$296	+$19	08-23 13:54
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes		+113	$8	2¢	$2	-$6	06-08 04:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	53	$16.1K	8,319	7,980	+339	No	+$3	03-23 05:59
will trump visit china by march 31	33	$13.8K	6,291	7,661	-1,370	No	-$11	03-24 02:09
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$2.4K	1,202	1,202	+0	No	+$1	03-23 03:58
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	13	$1.4K	694	694	+0	No	+$2	03-27 13:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	6	$739	373	373	+0	No	+$2	04-19 15:53
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	5	$648	610	196	+414	open	—	08-23 13:54
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$533	282	282	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 18:49
trump out as president by march 31	6	$532	276	276	+0	No	+$6	03-14 03:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$404	206	206	+0	No	+$3	05-06 11:51
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$397	200	200	+0	No	+$1	04-23 16:51
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	2	$394	200	200	+0	No	+$4	04-27 15:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	2	$382	197	197	+0	No	+$1	05-11 17:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	5	$380	195	195	+0	No	+$2	04-08 04:11
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	5	$363	182	182	+0	No	+$0	01-20 13:50
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	3	$267	135	135	+0	No	+$1	05-25 04:57
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$265	134	134	+0	No	+$1	05-03 02:09
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$241	242	0	+242	Yes	+$1	05-14 14:20
will jd vance say rigged during meetings with orbn	4	$237	119	119	+0	No	+$1	04-09 05:57
Netanyahu out by April 30?	2	$235	120	120	+0	No	+$0	04-08 17:50
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	3	$231	235	0	+235	No	+$4	05-13 16:38
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-21 12:42
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$194	97	97	+0	No	+$0	01-10 17:55
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	2	$192	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	02-24 07:17
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$188	97	92	+5	No	+$0	03-14 12:21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$188	96	92	+5	Yes	+$0	03-13 13:42
will iran strike israel on march 10	2	$181	92	90	+2	Yes	+$0	03-15 12:29
will jd vance say venezuela during meetings with orbn	2	$154	77	77	+0	No	+$1	04-09 05:28
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	2	$120	96	24	+72	No	+$0	01-04 11:58
Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	3	$119	246	0	+246	No	+$4	05-27 02:39
Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	2	$118	64	64	+0	Yes	+$7	06-02 01:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-23 13:54:07	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	188	92¢	$173	0xda1b01…
07-26 13:04:04	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x76f941…
07-18 06:25:57	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa6d6f2…
07-18 04:08:19	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeaf36c…
07-18 04:07:07	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf0ae7b…
07-08 13:54:04	will wti dip to 50 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa56abd…
06-29 10:31:56	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	33	98¢	$32	0xcc84e3…
06-25 10:47:41	Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x69f7a2…
06-21 02:59:22	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x36b3bf…
06-13 10:02:46	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	196	93¢	$182	0x410b28…
06-10 10:49:36	will trump speak to yoon suk yeol in june	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x1b6d3a…
06-10 10:49:13	jd vance out as vp by june 30	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x708ec5…
06-09 18:47:43	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	196	92¢	$181	0xe68268…
06-08 04:10:39	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	113	7¢	$8	0x8d0cd9…
06-04 04:32:30	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0x00c21b…
06-03 18:56:51	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x8b0617…
06-03 18:23:34	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x6f415a…
06-03 08:22:44	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xc39710…
06-03 05:52:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	113	93¢	$105	0x33ee78…
06-02 23:24:42	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0x830877…
06-02 03:41:24	Will James Lally be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x391718…
06-02 01:39:08	Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	Yes	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0xd818de…
05-31 14:05:37	Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x9c623d…
05-31 14:04:45	JD Vance out as VP by June 30?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x7ed65c…
05-31 14:04:17	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfa661a…
05-27 02:39:02	Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	No	BUY	75	12¢	$9	0x6188ef…
05-27 02:38:36	Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	Yes	SELL	75	8¢	$6	0x6bd9e9…
05-26 14:27:43	Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	Yes	SELL	48	7¢	$3	0xd7ebd7…
05-26 14:27:21	Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	No	BUY	48	11¢	$5	0x266c7c…
05-26 13:42:48	Will James Lally be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	Yes	SELL	28	9¢	$3	0x5e9fd5…
05-26 13:42:13	Will James Lally be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	Yes	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0xaba3a3…
05-26 13:42:12	Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	Yes	BUY	64	86¢	$55	0x9eea1d…
05-26 13:36:30	Will James Lally be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	Yes	BUY	64	9¢	$6	0x49cc88…
05-26 13:06:54	Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	Yes	BUY	123	85¢	$105	0xa92098…
05-26 12:47:50	Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0x0b3e48…
05-26 12:47:48	Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x20a335…
05-25 04:57:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	130	99¢	$129	0x728f9f…
05-25 03:40:07	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x592596…
05-25 02:54:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x144ae1…
05-23 23:00:43	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x240133…
05-23 14:20:26	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	135	98¢	$133	0xcda805…
05-21 15:39:43	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5c38fd…
05-21 12:42:24	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x934ea5…
05-18 00:49:38	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xb70f5f…
05-17 05:20:40	Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x83b118…
05-14 14:20:31	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	242	100¢	$241	0xbff8d3…
05-13 16:38:54	Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	BUY	81	99¢	$79	0x88c8f9…
05-13 14:37:10	Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	BUY	76	99¢	$75	0xb3fa2e…
05-13 14:08:05	Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	BUY	79	99¢	$77	0x8c1199…
05-11 17:12:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	SELL	197	97¢	$191	0x146d8b…
05-10 12:42:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	197	97¢	$190	0x93bb9a…
05-10 12:41:23	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0xa9c491…
05-10 02:28:25	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0xa8ad74…
05-08 14:13:50	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x69d1a0…
05-06 11:51:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	206	99¢	$204	0xe1be9c…
05-04 21:18:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xe77da5…
05-03 02:09:42	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	134	99¢	$133	0xcd5a32…
04-30 04:49:02	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	134	98¢	$132	0x64267c…
04-30 04:06:18	Will Trump say "Moon" 5+ times during astronaut greeting?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x1b11a2…
04-27 15:16:32	Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x590264…
04-25 15:49:16	Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x9464c0…
04-23 16:51:08	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x42eb4b…
04-21 11:10:14	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x6cedae…
04-20 11:34:20	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3ca09b…
04-19 15:53:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	88	99¢	$88	0xaa0843…
04-19 15:27:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x34d983…
04-19 14:54:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	99	99¢	$98	0x63a4ab…
04-18 23:12:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	188	99¢	$186	0xdada71…
04-16 18:49:36	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	199	94¢	$188	0xfd986e…
04-16 14:43:32	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3536d8…
04-15 15:31:34	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	199	94¢	$187	0x8a36b4…
04-15 13:13:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0x682052…
04-13 13:30:09	will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xafa3be…
04-12 16:48:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	185	99¢	$183	0xae9e70…
04-12 14:15:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xebe4a4…
04-11 15:18:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	185	99¢	$183	0x6b366c…
04-11 04:53:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xb4da42…
04-10 11:01:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x938c02…
04-10 11:01:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x69c480…
04-09 05:57:45	will jd vance say rigged during meetings with orbn	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xab94f7…
04-09 05:31:49	will jd vance say rigged during meetings with orbn	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xd399f0…
04-09 05:29:09	will jd vance say rigged during meetings with orbn	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa813c8…
04-09 05:28:49	will jd vance say venezuela during meetings with orbn	No	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0x341df9…
04-09 03:46:51	will jd vance say venezuela during meetings with orbn	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x0b5e61…
04-09 03:46:17	will jd vance say rigged during meetings with orbn	No	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0x54aac7…
04-08 17:50:41	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$118	0x430eba…
04-08 14:12:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0x490e1f…
04-08 06:37:15	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0xf87f8a…
04-08 04:11:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0xf8d38f…
04-07 22:37:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	112	97¢	$109	0x7c98f4…
04-07 22:36:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x73d089…
04-07 13:40:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0xd53563…
04-07 12:35:45	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	75	96¢	$72	0x425933…
04-05 04:16:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	120	97¢	$117	0xe510e8…
03-27 14:17:37	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0xb16257…
03-27 13:39:19	will gold gc hit low 3600 by end of march	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6249e5…
03-27 13:27:51	will russia test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x268d6a…
03-27 13:27:29	will trump meet with putin by march 31	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc18fb8…
03-27 13:26:03	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x3e37f1…
03-27 13:25:35	will the us tariff rate on china be less than 5 on march 31	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xcac052…