Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

132

Trades

138

lifetime

Volume

$236

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-21

last 11-12 02:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

85% 54% +$10

Politics

12% 56% -$3

Tech

2% 67% +$3

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No		+2	$1	61¢	$1	+$0	11-10 06:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	2	$4	8	+8	No	-$1	09-19 16:40
wti closes above 103 on september 16 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	09-16 06:53
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-11 19:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-11 10:19
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-08 17:18
meta up or down on september 17 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Up	+$2	09-16 23:15
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-08 19:39
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-10 13:12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-09 08:44
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-15 13:41
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-15 14:34
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $3.25 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	+$3	09-08 08:29
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-20 21:27
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	09-10 05:03
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	+$7	09-20 00:52
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-22 06:45
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	+$0	07-25 17:52
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-23 12:55
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-12 04:41
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-30 14:54
will trump say maga or make america great again during remarks in new york 20260811183234692	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-12 17:31
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-13 09:08
will warsh say anchor during september press conference 20260909	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	09-16 15:15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-23 02:48
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-23 10:48
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-18 09:44
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-20 10:24
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-17 07:36
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-08 17:15
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-18 22:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 02:58:34	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa17b95…
11-10 06:32:24	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf7dd21…
11-09 22:32:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x66e26a…
11-08 02:31:06	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x7f8c61…
11-05 05:38:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x6ed604…
11-04 21:38:34	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2dd080…
11-04 01:01:22	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x9aa2ca…
11-03 16:59:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x5dfe77…
11-03 07:57:03	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xdfbacf…
10-31 20:44:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x2cb5ca…
10-30 18:14:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x962b7b…
10-14 04:37:44	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb18662…
10-13 20:29:10	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5a3bd0…
10-09 09:29:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x249a69…
10-07 23:24:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbb0209…
10-07 02:39:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 7?	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x5f4d34…
10-06 18:39:21	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9a3dc6…
10-02 20:38:38	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xca4078…
10-02 12:32:18	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x31ba0b…
09-30 00:16:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x143435…
09-29 16:16:30	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc95adb…
09-29 16:16:29	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8693f0…
09-29 08:16:15	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4dd83c…
09-29 00:14:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb86767…
09-29 00:13:51	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x1c29dc…
09-28 15:34:41	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x5ceb7a…
09-28 07:04:35	will meta reach 780 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x55c2e2…
09-27 22:45:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb79222…
09-27 14:06:39	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x283121…
09-27 06:05:24	will msft dip to 510 in september 2026 from september 25	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdb7349…
09-26 21:23:41	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x4144f3…
09-26 12:41:33	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1d435f…
09-26 04:41:23	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2d1c3d…
09-23 18:48:52	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x3b58f0…
09-23 10:48:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x746047…
09-23 02:48:02	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xbb6c51…
09-22 06:45:10	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x9d4c47…
09-20 21:27:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x4f9dfa…
09-20 10:24:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xb7c57b…
09-20 00:52:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xb2b126…
09-19 16:40:48	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x3319cc…
09-19 16:17:15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xb74497…
09-19 07:42:43	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf0cd9c…
09-18 22:38:19	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x5723ee…
09-18 09:44:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2d4e9a…
09-18 00:28:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xad1b6b…
09-17 16:23:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x04ecaf…
09-17 07:36:37	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xf04093…
09-16 23:15:18	meta up or down on september 17 2026	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7d6710…
09-16 15:15:06	will warsh say anchor during september press conference 20260909	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x5bd2db…
09-16 06:53:21	wti closes above 103 on september 16 2026	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xcccd28…
09-15 22:51:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x538685…
09-15 14:34:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x120a00…
09-14 18:33:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x61c02c…
09-13 09:08:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xb28889…
09-13 00:25:13	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x5fc417…
09-12 14:00:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x225caa…
09-12 04:41:10	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x773eac…
09-11 19:31:19	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xbf3ceb…
09-11 10:19:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x3cf836…
09-10 13:12:28	Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x68cf8a…
09-10 05:03:22	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf251b4…
09-09 08:44:37	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x990eee…
09-08 17:18:01	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x84ac8e…
09-08 17:15:46	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x97a409…
09-08 08:29:37	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $3.25 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xfe1252…
09-08 00:17:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xad778c…
09-07 10:21:45	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x22f9c8…
09-03 07:51:51	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x3204c7…
09-02 21:11:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x6890e7…
09-02 20:33:16	will apple release a foldable iphone by september 15 877 292	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x28f6c4…
09-02 12:20:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xe96a16…
08-30 14:54:43	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x171b66…
08-30 06:53:52	Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x9d4bdc…
08-29 21:53:54	Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xbfbf92…
08-29 13:43:16	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xb88781…
08-28 20:43:58	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x2b43c4…
08-27 12:41:37	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x88cc41…
08-27 04:40:27	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xbdc798…
08-26 19:59:54	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x49f4c7…
08-26 11:41:48	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x4a3fe1…
08-26 03:07:03	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $197.50 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x818a1d…
08-25 19:02:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x7731e3…
08-23 21:05:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x60408d…
08-23 12:55:01	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xa06916…
08-23 04:31:55	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x668782…
08-21 15:29:33	will warsh say good morning during jackson hole speech on august 28	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x3947b4…
08-20 19:19:49	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x9f9ed7…
08-20 11:18:04	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x8883ca…
08-20 01:16:49	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x7dda61…
08-19 15:01:16	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x92a027…
08-19 06:39:10	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xaaf737…
08-18 22:27:34	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xbb2129…
08-16 00:12:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xcbd872…
08-15 13:41:34	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x97666c…
08-15 05:32:15	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xcf1e3e…
08-14 20:34:40	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x2fbe37…
08-14 12:33:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x82602e…
08-14 01:41:46	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x2408ce…
08-13 17:40:25	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x0ba032…