Mushy-Understatement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.8%

Resolved

434

Trades

805

lifetime

Volume

$11.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 10-19 16:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Other

74% 83% +$2

Crypto

21% 87% +$1

Politics

4% 88% +$0

Sports

1% 50% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 67% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on July 20?	3	$116	58	58	+0	No	$0	07-19 18:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on July 24?	3	$109	55	55	+0	No	$0	07-23 17:47
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?	6	$99	50	50	+0	No	$0	07-27 06:48
nyc air quality index below 100 by july 21 20260717052446994	3	$97	49	49	+0	Yes	+$0	07-21 02:11
bitcoin above 60k on july 23 2026	3	$69	34	34	+0	Yes	+$0	07-22 14:48
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 11?	3	$68	37	31	+6	No	+$0	07-11 00:54
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 44°C or higher on July 26?	4	$67	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-25 14:37
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 21 million views on day 2?	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-27 17:06
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	4	$65	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-30 13:19
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	2	$65	33	33	+0	No	$0	07-26 10:15
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	3	$65	33	33	+0	No	+$0	04-29 21:31
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on July 26?	4	$65	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-25 09:16
will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	4	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-30 20:32
bitcoin above 58k on july 30 2026	2	$63	31	31	+0	Yes	+$0	07-30 04:14
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2?	3	$63	31	31	+0	No	+$0	06-02 05:51
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C or higher on July 26?	2	$63	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-25 23:46
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 10?	6	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	05-10 05:48
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	2	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	10-13 11:23
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on July 30?	2	$61	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-29 08:47
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	07-30 18:15
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 23?	4	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-22 20:22
bitcoin above 60k on july 29 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	07-29 08:49
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 23?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-23 03:06
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 22?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-21 13:23
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	2	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	08-24 15:55
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on July 25?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-25 00:48
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-19 04:53
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$54	27	27	+0	Yes	+$0	07-19 23:14
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 89°F or below on July 20?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-19 18:46
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 29?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-29 01:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 16:41:36	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xbc4587…
10-18 20:45:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C or higher on October 19?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0x2ea288…
10-16 09:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x39a3bf…
10-13 11:23:46	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x420825…
10-13 11:13:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 14?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x4b2493…
10-13 08:27:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 14?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x77cab9…
10-12 10:07:26	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on October 12?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x311f44…
10-12 04:28:35	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xcdec68…
10-12 02:51:44	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on October 12?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xdf3043…
10-12 01:09:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 12?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x4b09b7…
10-11 23:43:50	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 12?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa2cd1d…
10-10 06:08:55	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on October 10?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x29a5f5…
10-07 18:50:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 7?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x142450…
10-05 09:22:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on October 5?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x96f6df…
10-02 02:31:29	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on October 2?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x5b019f…
10-01 21:43:57	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 2?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa8031f…
10-01 06:29:15	bitcoin above 78k on october 1 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0x198b54…
09-28 05:07:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x98da65…
09-27 18:28:41	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on September 28?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfb643c…
09-23 20:37:08	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on September 24?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xa68f17…
09-23 19:28:26	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on September 24?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4b0cb0…
09-22 22:30:37	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x6397e4…
09-22 12:12:40	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xec52d8…
09-21 20:49:03	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on September 22?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xea32f5…
09-18 22:21:39	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 18?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfd08e9…
09-18 00:03:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on September 18?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbb23c5…
09-17 15:19:37	Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf00808…
09-13 05:13:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on September 13?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8d7925…
09-11 16:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 11?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xf03eeb…
09-11 16:12:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on September 11?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xaa4c58…
09-11 00:54:39	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x6107a9…
09-10 19:11:40	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 11?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x3177c0…
09-07 13:36:42	bitcoin above 76k on september 7 2026	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xcebf42…
09-06 13:53:00	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 33°C or higher on September 7?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$26	0x7e155f…
09-06 09:30:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 6?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xeaa7bf…
09-06 01:39:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on September 6?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x468765…
09-05 09:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xf6438d…
09-04 23:38:43	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc097b9…
09-04 23:02:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 5?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x09eb17…
09-04 16:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on September 5?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x66704d…
09-04 06:03:49	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 5?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x982620…
09-04 02:45:51	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 104°F or higher on September 4?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8c1fbf…
09-03 14:48:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on September 4?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x73f7e4…
09-03 12:11:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 4?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6a18fa…
09-02 23:08:21	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on September 3?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3f27ce…
09-02 17:32:48	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C or below on September 3?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6039a9…
09-02 12:58:18	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x5eb8b0…
09-02 05:52:06	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on September 2?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x934035…
09-01 14:06:22	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 1?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x80099c…
09-01 08:17:40	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 1?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x67bd78…
09-01 02:42:58	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0x27840e…
08-31 03:38:01	Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x95cf61…
08-31 00:34:22	Will Tropical Storm Saudel peak as a "Violent Typhoon"?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xcf6436…
08-30 16:42:18	will bitcoin dip to 74k august 24 30 2026	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x50a980…
08-30 13:12:43	bitcoin above 76k on august 30 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x435cc3…
08-30 06:11:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 30?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xa3e4b8…
08-29 22:28:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x26f6be…
08-29 17:08:49	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x674488…
08-29 07:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x67102a…
08-28 08:45:21	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 28?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2c6c93…
08-27 09:30:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on August 28?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0479f3…
08-27 04:37:43	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 27?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0xc5484f…
08-26 22:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on August 27?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x642b92…
08-26 20:00:00	will bitcoin dip to 73k on august 26 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd10cc6…
08-26 16:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 27?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf94190…
08-25 12:50:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3b989f…
08-25 12:37:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcf29e2…
08-25 06:48:04	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 25?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc3eb97…
08-25 00:17:45	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 25?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x5cd984…
08-24 15:55:57	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xeeabeb…
08-24 13:58:31	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x4aadb5…
08-24 01:38:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1dab4e…
08-23 17:32:06	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd043c8…
08-14 17:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 15?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbeec8e…
08-14 08:01:48	Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5bf5a0…
08-13 17:20:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on August 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x901218…
08-13 15:40:21	Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be at least 60,000?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0x75d643…
08-13 10:50:13	Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xde3e7a…
08-12 23:45:24	Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 13?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x2cc427…
08-12 22:49:42	Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 13?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0x0ead2f…
08-12 06:32:06	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 12?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$34	0xff35fb…
08-12 02:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on August 13?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xdfddeb…
08-12 01:14:07	bitcoin above 60k on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5bd11c…
08-11 14:43:00	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on August 11?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x8f5668…
08-11 14:18:36	bitcoin above 62k on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x39960f…
08-10 21:57:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 11?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd07411…
08-10 20:29:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C or higher on August 11?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0xbc8a68…
08-10 14:22:21	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 11?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xfc3e72…
08-10 11:39:48	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5c48f5…
08-09 12:41:43	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8f2b90…
08-09 07:02:10	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xe3883b…
08-09 06:03:42	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on August 10?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0xccc36b…
08-09 03:06:42	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 10?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x0da842…
08-08 17:48:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x03bc6e…
08-08 04:40:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 8?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb569a2…
08-08 00:56:31	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on August 8?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x77fa56…
08-07 19:31:21	will bitcoin dip to 63k on august 7	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb3f145…
08-07 18:20:33	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x8f2413…
08-07 12:27:43	will spy dip to 730 by august 3 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfc335a…
08-07 08:51:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 7?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x954eab…