Realized P&L
-$244
Unrealized P&L
+$48
Hit rate
57.1%
Resolved
45
Trades
866
lifetime
Volume
$6.78K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$394
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-28
last 10-26 17:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 25 days
Categories
Politics
67% 58% -$177
Other
32% 33% -$69
Crypto
0% 67% +$2
Tech
0% — —
Sports
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
37 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? Yes +53 $17 81¢ $43 +$25 10-23 17:40
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +30 $16 84¢ $25 +$9 10-23 16:50
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +20 $14 88¢ $18 +$3 10-22 17:00
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +30 $16 59¢ $18 +$1 10-23 17:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +16 $13 97¢ $16 +$3 10-22 16:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +16 $12 94¢ $15 +$3 10-22 17:00
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +75 $18 19¢ $14 -$3 10-22 17:10
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +23 $13 62¢ $14 +$1 10-22 17:10
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +18 $13 76¢ $14 +$1 10-23 17:10
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +16 $13 80¢ $13 $0 10-23 17:10
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +16 $12 74¢ $12 $0 10-23 17:10
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No +14 $10 82¢ $11 +$2 10-22 17:50
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes +27 $13 42¢ $11 -$1 10-22 17:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +14 $10 79¢ $11 +$1 10-22 17:10
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? No +15 $10 72¢ $11 +$1 10-23 17:20
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? No +11 $9 96¢ $11 +$1 10-23 18:10
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +17 $10 62¢ $11 +$1 10-23 17:10
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +14 $9 74¢ $10 +$2 10-24 16:40
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +11 $9 93¢ $10 +$1 10-22 17:10
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? No +13 $10 78¢ $10 +$1 10-22 17:10
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? No +14 $11 72¢ $10 -$1 10-22 17:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +16 $11 62¢ $10 -$1 10-22 17:10
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +12 $9 83¢ $10 +$1 10-22 17:00
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +23 $12 43¢ $10 -$2 10-22 17:20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +15 $10 65¢ $10 $0 10-22 17:10
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$1 10-23 17:30
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +11 $10 86¢ $9 $0 10-22 16:50
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No +11 $9 84¢ $9 $0 10-22 17:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +11 $9 84¢ $9 +$0 10-22 17:10
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +12 $9 76¢ $9 $0 10-22 16:50