Distorted-Experiment — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$997

Unrealized P&L

-$59

Hit rate

34.9%

Resolved (30d)

108

Trades (30d)

154

1,052 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$4.72K

$155.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$148

Open exposure

$90

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 10-29 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 132 days

Categories

Other

80% 55% -$1,726

Crypto

16% 90% +$18

Sports

3% 48% -$398

Politics

2% 44% -$8

Tech

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$80	29¢	$57	-$23	10-24 15:19
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+500	$40	4¢	$22	-$18	10-28 22:57
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$30	6¢	$11	-$19	10-07 09:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	34	$4.4K	2,200	2,200	+0	No	+$8	06-16 03:17
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	13	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$6	06-16 13:55
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	6	$3.8K	1,912	1,912	+0	No	+$13	06-18 02:05
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	6	$3.4K	1,719	1,719	+0	No	+$26	06-22 15:58
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	20	$3.3K	1,700	1,700	+0	No	+$17	06-09 04:49
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	2	$3.3K	1,674	1,674	+0	No	+$3	06-28 05:42
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	20	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$3	06-13 01:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	7	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$2	05-26 11:57
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?	3	$2.8K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$3	06-17 08:23
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	2	$2.7K	1,377	1,377	+0	No	+$5	06-25 03:50
bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	5	$2.4K	1,600	800	+800	No	+$2	06-04 14:23
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	2	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$1	06-13 05:03
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	7	$2.3K	1,134	1,134	+0	No	+$1	05-20 07:33
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	15	$2.1K	1,058	1,058	+0	No	+$4	06-03 10:18
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,013	1,013	+0	No	+$7	06-18 20:37
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$1	06-12 06:44
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	10	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$1	05-14 11:24
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	20	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$1	06-05 16:04
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	2	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$4	06-14 05:50
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	4	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$7	06-20 11:44
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	4	$1.8K	890	890	+0	No	+$3	07-07 16:23
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	2	$1.8K	881	881	+0	No	+$3	06-14 22:05
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	5	$1.6K	1,025	595	+430	No	+$5	07-15 05:25
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	3	$1.6K	800	800	+0	No	+$2	06-24 14:58
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	4	$1.5K	1,268	268	+1,000	No	+$17	07-06 17:21
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$1	05-26 08:49
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	2	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$1	06-19 19:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	2	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$1	05-27 11:56
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	22	$1.3K	674	674	+0	No	+$1	05-20 10:35
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	5	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	No	+$27	07-27 03:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 11:24:44	Gangwon FC vs. Kuching City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x3015b6…
10-29 11:22:20	Gangwon FC vs. Kuching City FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	160	9¢	$14	0x809dd3…
10-29 11:22:16	Gangwon FC vs. Kuching City FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xe1c448…
10-29 04:34:29	CF América vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x7a94ed…
10-29 04:02:47	Seattle Sounders FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x21ad82…
10-29 03:57:52	Seattle Sounders FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xe965a8…
10-29 01:56:19	Atletico Tucuman vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x04aace…
10-29 01:30:23	Toronto FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x93245a…
10-28 22:57:17	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xa01754…
10-25 15:43:59	Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xcbb9ec…
10-25 15:43:09	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x8aa298…
10-25 09:12:32	Paju Frontier FC vs. Hwaseong FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x728d54…
10-25 08:54:29	Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xc64613…
10-25 08:49:44	Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	55	24¢	$13	0x651949…
10-25 08:49:39	Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	45	24¢	$11	0x4609c7…
10-25 07:51:23	Iwaki FC vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x149244…
10-25 05:49:42	Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x4d0f77…
10-25 05:46:29	Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x39f302…
10-25 05:04:41	Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x052d87…
10-25 03:23:33	Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x45cbb0…
10-25 01:41:56	Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0xf39794…
10-25 01:41:56	Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7f2765…
10-24 18:47:27	CF Montréal vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x36422a…
10-24 17:46:15	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xc64176…
10-24 17:41:03	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x8e2a05…
10-24 15:45:42	Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x8abbfc…
10-24 15:19:23	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xd0080a…
10-24 15:05:27	RB Leipzig vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	80	19¢	$15	0xb43176…
10-24 15:05:20	RB Leipzig vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x442ccf…
10-24 15:05:17	RB Leipzig vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	115	19¢	$22	0x91908e…
10-24 14:49:02	IK Sirius vs. AIK: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xf2eefd…
10-24 13:50:42	Córdoba CF vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x7bcc83…
10-24 13:13:56	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0xce3b5e…
10-24 10:28:23	Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xf93167…
10-24 09:20:51	Gimpo FC vs. Gimhae FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x088c0d…
10-24 08:50:56	Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x4cbf26…
10-24 08:50:56	Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	56	25¢	$14	0x055502…
10-24 07:47:30	Kashima Antlers vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x57dca1…
10-24 05:11:14	Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x605c9a…
10-23 02:41:23	Atlético Nacional vs. AD Pasto: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0xeabd27…
10-23 02:08:56	Atlético Nacional vs. AD Pasto: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	128	15¢	$19	0xbfe1c4…
10-23 02:08:56	Atlético Nacional vs. AD Pasto: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	172	15¢	$26	0x0407ad…
10-22 16:45:02	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October?	Yes	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0x369df8…
10-22 10:17:50	Persik Kediri vs. PSS Sleman: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x370905…
10-22 08:20:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0xc22610…
10-22 02:52:51	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xc5f387…
10-22 02:52:51	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xbbac54…
10-22 02:52:51	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x6a6ca6…
10-22 02:52:51	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	42	35¢	$15	0x2656dc…
10-22 02:52:51	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x1c4ae7…
10-22 02:49:57	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Tijuana: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xbb3aad…
10-21 16:39:50	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	Yes	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0xb0c35d…
10-21 13:04:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0x0ed73b…
10-21 01:32:24	CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0xd36020…
10-21 01:32:23	CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	52	15¢	$8	0x7f17eb…
10-21 01:32:23	CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x24de6e…
10-21 01:14:36	Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0xcec5ca…
10-21 01:13:39	Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x3b67bc…
10-20 00:49:02	SC Corinthians Paulista vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xea61f5…
10-19 03:00:26	CF Monterrey vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	172	10¢	$17	0x7436cc…
10-19 03:00:26	CF Monterrey vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	111	10¢	$11	0x2d250d…
10-19 03:00:26	CF Monterrey vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0x1a49b9…
10-19 02:34:24	AD Cali vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x5a42bf…
10-19 02:31:23	AD Cali vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	283	15¢	$42	0xbbffa5…
10-19 02:31:23	AD Cali vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x2b4885…
10-19 02:31:23	AD Cali vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x061b45…
10-19 01:48:32	CSD Municipal vs. CD Guastatoya: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x5bcf10…
10-18 17:14:14	Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xf8d60b…
10-18 17:10:56	Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x4a7064…
10-18 16:41:36	Vålerenga Fotball vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x522045…
10-18 16:39:56	Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x0c664d…
10-18 15:46:33	Odense BK vs. Brøndby IF: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xc89ca1…
10-18 15:23:51	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xe4c050…
10-18 14:23:36	SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. AZ: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x5c2761…
10-18 14:13:00	Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x94171b…
10-18 14:06:27	Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x49b1f9…
10-18 13:18:35	Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x5ccfe6…
10-18 13:17:47	DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x9f33be…
10-18 12:45:14	FK Zenit vs. RFK Akhmat Groznyi: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x616200…
10-18 07:02:32	Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Gwangju FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xe87984…
10-18 04:30:38	San Jose Earthquakes vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xe6894a…
10-18 04:27:36	Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x322108…
10-18 04:26:53	Seattle Sounders FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x07774f…
10-18 04:18:42	Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0x1bc72a…
10-18 04:17:56	Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	84	20¢	$17	0xc6df01…
10-18 03:51:32	Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xcd80b7…
10-17 17:48:08	Viking FK vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xd163dc…
10-17 16:00:29	Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xbd5faa…
10-17 15:52:08	Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xac169d…
10-17 15:47:00	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	49	30¢	$15	0x8bcc9e…
10-17 15:46:59	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	51	30¢	$15	0x654685…
10-17 15:14:26	SV Werder Bremen vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xc0c3c8…
10-17 12:47:39	VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x8b5768…
10-17 12:17:51	Erzurumspor FK vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xe2fe06…
10-17 12:15:57	Erzurumspor FK vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xddbd0f…
10-17 12:15:57	Erzurumspor FK vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x49bba8…
10-17 12:15:56	Erzurumspor FK vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	87	27¢	$24	0x9a0d33…
10-17 10:50:32	Kataller Toyama vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	84	25¢	$21	0x2ff49f…
10-17 10:50:30	Kataller Toyama vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0xbd1b4e…
10-17 10:30:24	Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x8714de…