Harmful-Lobby — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$163

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.1%

Resolved

Trades

7,715

lifetime

Volume

$1.10M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$143

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 07-27 21:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 0% $-24

Politics

43% 50% $-151

Sports

5% 100% +$12

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 237 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	685	$228.5K	122,840	115,530	+7,310	open	—	03-23 15:57
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	559	$131.3K	82,692	80,345	+2,347	open	—	03-31 19:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	612	$128.7K	70,169	64,410	+5,759	open	—	03-27 17:31
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	301	$92.8K	47,983	47,683	+300	open	—	03-26 21:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	472	$67.2K	62,443	59,881	+2,562	open	—	03-31 12:21
Iran leadership change by March 13?	180	$51.0K	26,271	26,243	+28	open	—	03-13 22:22
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	499	$49.9K	28,009	27,628	+381	open	—	03-17 15:43
iran closes its airspace by june 8	208	$31.4K	22,271	22,271	+0	open	—	06-07 23:01
will trump visit china by march 31	117	$28.0K	14,942	14,202	+741	open	—	03-25 00:57
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	116	$26.5K	13,238	14,207	-969	open	—	02-09 18:42
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	94	$16.5K	10,582	10,575	+6	open	—	03-31 12:27
will iran strike israel on march 10	476	$12.0K	39,633	38,660	+973	open	—	03-13 17:45
another us government shutdown by february 14	208	$9.8K	11,817	12,463	-646	open	—	02-13 19:44
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	57	$7.7K	11,415	12,015	-600	open	—	01-31 03:17
Will the US strike Somalia next?	32	$6.6K	3,321	3,321	+0	open	—	01-27 00:15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	23	$6.3K	3,339	3,187	+153	open	—	06-08 11:06
Will the US strike Iran next?	33	$5.4K	3,046	2,446	+600	open	—	01-27 15:56
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	156	$5.3K	5,822	5,940	-118	open	—	03-08 21:09
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	30	$5.2K	2,678	2,678	+0	open	—	02-03 21:14
will the us strike iran next 433	65	$5.1K	2,860	2,360	+500	open	—	01-23 20:10
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	43	$5.1K	2,800	2,900	-100	open	—	03-15 21:10
Will the US strike Iran next?	23	$4.6K	2,579	2,079	+500	open	—	01-29 23:54
will iran strike israel on march 6	13	$4.6K	2,300	2,300	+0	open	—	03-10 19:07
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	11	$4.5K	2,066	2,482	-416	open	—	01-26 22:41
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	61	$4.5K	3,146	2,891	+256	open	—	05-08 09:08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	67	$4.1K	3,301	3,086	+215	open	—	03-26 21:01
iran leadership change by march 31	26	$4.0K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	03-25 18:12
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	25	$3.9K	2,477	1,866	+611	open	—	01-31 18:12
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	87	$3.8K	3,005	2,981	+25	open	—	03-21 19:22
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	54	$3.8K	2,508	2,508	+0	open	—	03-31 16:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 21:17:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x466cfe…
07-27 16:10:51	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	SELL	126	93¢	$118	0xdeb30a…
07-27 16:08:25	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	SELL	9	93¢	$9	0xac7842…
07-27 16:08:25	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x0eb19a…
07-27 16:08:12	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0xb4c5dc…
07-27 15:30:43	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0xfcfd39…
07-27 15:30:06	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	1	66¢	$0	0xc58196…
07-23 00:39:49	will russia enter novyi donbas by september 30	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5163ae…
07-23 00:38:57	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	170	99¢	$169	0xc41331…
07-21 22:45:55	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	300	95¢	$284	0x5327b1…
07-21 15:45:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	59	4¢	$2	0x808db7…
07-20 17:24:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	59	47¢	$28	0x1096fd…
07-17 19:24:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	686	52¢	$357	0x9963f4…
07-17 19:22:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	414	52¢	$215	0xaf74c0…
07-10 19:36:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0xd4b364…
07-09 22:25:59	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x685676…
07-09 19:37:58	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x7f96a6…
07-09 16:34:37	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	23	93¢	$21	0x7af20f…
07-08 21:56:31	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xced4f3…
07-04 19:12:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	SELL	300	98¢	$293	0xc6e651…
07-04 19:09:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0xc785b6…
07-04 19:09:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0xe61acf…
07-04 18:46:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x3ad0c4…
07-04 00:19:14	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xad82ab…
07-03 21:14:38	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x07c3f8…
07-03 17:23:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x25998b…
07-03 17:22:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xa2bde5…
07-03 17:22:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	54	31¢	$17	0x57bfe5…
07-03 04:57:11	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x597809…
07-02 17:29:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x67c7b4…
07-02 17:26:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x298616…
07-02 17:22:22	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x63f0a9…
07-02 17:13:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	BUY	46	92¢	$42	0xde7a03…
07-02 16:33:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0x2e7643…
07-02 03:00:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xdb840d…
07-01 20:46:08	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	200	41¢	$82	0x0189f5…
07-01 02:52:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	150	97¢	$145	0x86c82a…
07-01 01:11:11	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	176	57¢	$100	0x26d6d3…
06-30 21:38:53	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	24	57¢	$14	0xb91fcf…
06-30 16:24:59	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x640d34…
06-28 15:01:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0xc4ded1…
06-28 14:58:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0xd366d1…
06-26 22:00:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662	Yes	BUY	250	97¢	$243	0xfb340e…
06-26 21:02:25	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	250	96¢	$239	0x008028…
06-26 04:40:40	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xca72fe…
06-26 04:40:20	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	95¢	$79	0x0817ff…
06-26 02:57:08	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0x781858…
06-26 02:54:32	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0x558b0a…
06-26 02:40:19	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xbae901…
06-26 02:23:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xeef714…
06-25 17:27:47	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x6be3d7…
06-25 16:30:25	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	185	49¢	$91	0xc22c44…
06-25 16:22:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0xd1cdf9…
06-25 07:25:16	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0xe24e16…
06-25 07:25:16	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x825048…
06-25 07:25:16	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x80d7b7…
06-25 07:25:14	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	86¢	$28	0xcf8e54…
06-25 07:25:14	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xcb9c78…
06-25 07:25:14	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x458dd2…
06-25 07:25:14	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0x391a70…
06-25 07:25:14	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	86¢	$69	0x123434…
06-25 03:03:58	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xa3edbc…
06-24 20:09:10	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0x683f75…
06-24 20:08:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	46¢	$92	0xaf3b13…
06-22 21:42:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x157369…
06-22 20:39:50	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	600	97¢	$583	0x5b0329…
06-22 08:20:23	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x1ffb54…
06-20 18:33:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$288	0x5eca29…
06-20 13:53:53	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	82¢	$820	0xd5987c…
06-19 19:54:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	300	22¢	$66	0x14fa80…
06-19 19:37:23	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x81b090…
06-19 19:32:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x1455ce…
06-19 18:20:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	300	44¢	$132	0xf32d39…
06-18 21:52:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x4abb89…
06-18 20:02:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x33c9aa…
06-18 19:58:55	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x929f8d…
06-18 19:51:53	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0x93cdb1…
06-18 19:50:10	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	189	41¢	$77	0x0aade4…
06-18 19:50:07	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	11	41¢	$5	0x7d4781…
06-18 19:33:19	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	197	45¢	$88	0x76276d…
06-18 19:33:01	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xfb9e4c…
06-18 19:33:01	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	1	45¢	$1	0x0031cc…
06-18 19:32:50	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xbcde75…
06-18 19:30:58	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0x415468…
06-18 19:28:59	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0xbaf6d1…
06-18 17:34:08	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x9691bb…
06-17 15:17:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xa87eac…
06-15 13:59:40	us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x215526…
06-15 13:45:00	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x535673…
06-15 13:23:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0xff07fc…
06-12 19:52:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0xa9d589…
06-12 18:46:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	181	76¢	$138	0x94968c…
06-12 18:45:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0x9398dd…
06-12 17:48:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0x331529…
06-12 17:42:25	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	SELL	188	99¢	$185	0x4e2b9c…
06-12 17:20:57	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x849c27…
06-12 17:20:30	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x0d1d75…
06-12 17:13:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	105	93¢	$98	0xf3e3ec…
06-12 17:12:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	47	93¢	$44	0x679287…
06-12 17:12:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	48	93¢	$45	0x600fa2…