Embarrassed-Fixture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$127

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

Trades

555

lifetime

Volume

$10.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-06 20:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

57% 60% $-130

Other

33% 100% +$3

Tech

10% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	25	$427	430	430	+0	open	—	04-22 03:59
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	9	$384	199	200	-1	open	—	01-30 11:31
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	7	$355	190	190	+0	open	—	02-28 08:55
will russia capture kostyantynivka by january 31	12	$344	260	130	+130	open	—	01-29 20:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	16	$340	331	184	+147	open	—	06-14 18:38
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	19	$338	500	153	+347	open	—	02-27 17:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	18	$316	295	392	-97	open	—	06-14 22:19
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	7	$297	230	230	+0	open	—	05-01 18:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	9	$292	307	0	+307	open	—	05-07 15:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	10	$288	315	69	+246	open	—	07-06 20:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$265	159	139	+20	open	—	01-29 07:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$254	244	244	+0	open	—	03-01 08:33
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	11	$247	270	10	+260	open	—	01-29 21:12
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	7	$216	110	110	+0	open	—	04-21 20:29
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	8	$192	110	110	+0	open	—	04-23 19:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$167	120	120	+0	open	—	01-23 14:47
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	3	$160	169	0	+169	open	—	04-15 16:36
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$153	160	0	+160	open	—	02-04 23:17
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	10	$137	166	0	+166	open	—	02-20 18:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	8	$135	140	75	+65	open	—	04-25 21:04
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	6	$132	140	0	+140	open	—	01-23 23:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	9	$126	136	16	+120	open	—	05-24 10:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	13	$117	1,070	1,050	+20	open	—	04-16 09:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$117	76	76	+0	open	—	04-22 20:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	5	$110	240	0	+240	open	—	03-12 21:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$109	115	115	+0	Yes	$-108	05-09 06:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	6	$104	160	0	+160	open	—	03-12 23:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	5	$103	0	200	-200	open	—	04-23 00:09
will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 31 125	6	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	01-31 22:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	2	$97	100	0	+100	open	—	05-27 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 20:25:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xd550de…
07-06 04:48:25	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xc52d80…
07-02 21:14:08	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xe61039…
06-21 11:27:08	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	33¢	$12	0x4fc7d3…
06-14 22:52:54	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x5cc029…
06-14 22:19:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xd8460f…
06-14 22:16:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x2899b4…
06-14 22:10:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	50	24¢	$12	0xa90f90…
06-14 22:08:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x60ed8f…
06-14 22:08:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	72	77¢	$55	0x60ed8f…
06-14 22:01:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x1fbe99…
06-14 21:56:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x1099d2…
06-14 21:53:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x9d72c3…
06-14 21:46:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xd70b48…
06-14 21:45:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	250	25¢	$62	0xcf96e0…
06-14 21:31:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x1dfc52…
06-14 21:28:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x096b42…
06-14 21:28:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe465eb…
06-14 21:27:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x63be09…
06-14 21:06:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xed78de…
06-14 20:37:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x4c1b56…
06-14 18:38:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x2d5890…
06-14 16:37:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	40	79¢	$31	0x8dfd13…
06-14 15:42:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x25a700…
06-14 14:26:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xfa9c25…
06-13 16:58:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xc46c55…
06-13 11:49:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x9839ed…
06-13 01:15:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	85¢	$21	0xe9a13c…
06-12 20:13:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x469482…
06-12 19:58:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	40	73¢	$29	0x9bb0df…
06-12 18:20:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	38	81¢	$31	0x3dc47d…
06-12 18:06:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x8d250c…
06-12 16:22:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x86561c…
06-12 13:55:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xa2fc56…
06-12 12:54:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 14 2026 20260612000748609	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0x0fdb73…
06-12 10:57:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 14 2026 20260612000748609	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x7289be…
06-12 08:20:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	66	85¢	$56	0x0b27e5…
06-11 22:34:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0x6069fb…
06-11 18:00:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	18	80¢	$14	0x86d9e8…
06-11 18:00:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0xe518cc…
06-11 18:00:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0xcef483…
06-11 18:00:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xdc637f…
06-11 11:20:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x059e52…
06-11 11:18:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	32¢	$43	0x015332…
06-08 11:57:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xd28880…
06-08 11:56:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x12b1c7…
06-02 10:37:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x1cb73b…
06-02 00:19:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x5dc204…
06-01 20:45:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xcda47f…
06-01 20:43:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x3184a9…
06-01 16:45:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	47¢	$12	0x3fcfe1…
06-01 16:43:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x145db6…
06-01 16:40:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x34ea22…
06-01 16:29:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x3f026b…
05-31 06:57:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0xf0a91b…
05-31 06:57:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	29	82¢	$24	0x9359e7…
05-27 16:09:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$22	0xdb6906…
05-27 10:30:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	78	97¢	$75	0x359e46…
05-24 10:30:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x203cc2…
05-22 21:01:26	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xfc657f…
05-21 16:59:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xdf1558…
05-21 16:54:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x12df7a…
05-21 14:55:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x1d30f5…
05-18 13:12:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x4c7609…
05-18 11:57:35	Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xc2916b…
05-18 10:45:26	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x415972…
05-18 10:44:09	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x5c5d23…
05-18 10:20:31	Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x82e1ba…
05-16 08:29:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x07a543…
05-13 05:58:17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3e9f0a…
05-11 16:11:59	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	3¢	$2	0x880a8b…
05-09 06:45:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	115	0¢	$0	0xaf4301…
05-08 20:53:39	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x23aa3a…
05-08 18:02:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	60¢	$27	0x3775a1…
05-07 21:05:40	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x527513…
05-07 21:04:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x921d56…
05-07 21:01:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xaf83e8…
05-07 15:51:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xc3d657…
05-07 15:43:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x58a1c8…
05-07 15:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x6f3dbc…
05-06 15:33:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x7ec483…
05-06 15:29:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x0eb6e1…
05-06 11:11:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	16	45¢	$7	0xe36ab9…
05-05 15:13:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x6e1a98…
05-05 15:12:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xd472f6…
05-05 07:07:14	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xdf5092…
05-03 21:06:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x26ad49…
05-03 06:12:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x0474ab…
05-02 09:08:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xc0abea…
05-01 19:04:14	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0xc52864…
05-01 18:38:52	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	115	80¢	$92	0xd8b685…
05-01 18:38:00	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	115	75¢	$86	0x7d871c…
04-29 20:43:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x559bc9…
04-29 20:41:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0xa183bb…
04-29 17:20:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x4993da…
04-29 13:49:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x79d00f…
04-27 19:46:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xa059c7…
04-27 19:45:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$10	0x827c26…
04-27 19:45:12	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x146bc3…
04-25 21:05:06	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xdb2842…