Fat-Mess — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$149

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

90.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.94K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

$52

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 11-02 15:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

73% 81% +$132

Politics

27% 77% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	No		+57	$50	92¢	$52	+$2	11-02 15:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	4	$596	340	340	+0	No	+$56	04-27 15:00
Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?	4	$592	419	223	+196	No	+$8	05-22 13:47
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	4	$468	241	241	+0	No	+$12	05-01 05:05
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	5	$390	218	218	+0	No	+$32	04-01 04:22
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	2	$334	195	195	+0	No	+$34	05-09 16:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	3	$330	359	0	+359	No	+$29	06-16 07:54
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026?	2	$307	164	164	+0	No	+$7	05-01 05:06
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	4	$300	334	0	+334	No	+$34	09-24 13:35
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026?	4	$270	317	0	+317	No	+$47	10-15 18:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$239	150	150	+0	No	+$59	04-01 04:22
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?	3	$221	121	121	+0	No	+$21	06-01 05:44
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?	2	$205	105	105	+0	No	+$5	06-01 05:45
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026?	2	$205	106	106	+0	No	+$5	08-26 16:58
will ukraine re enter hryshyne by july 31 20260604220043035	1	$200	213	0	+213	No	+$13	07-21 07:55
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	2	$200	112	112	+0	open	—	06-09 12:33
will ukraine re enter uspenivka by march 31	2	$194	129	129	+0	No	-$4	03-14 17:10
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?	2	$163	129	129	+0	No	-$27	03-16 05:38
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	4	$153	79	79	+0	No	+$3	06-01 05:45
russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260609011545512	2	$150	187	0	+187	Yes	-$150	06-25 09:42
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?	2	$123	65	65	+0	No	+$3	09-22 13:03
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	2	$103	54	54	+0	No	+$3	05-25 13:42
will russia capture serhiivka by july 31	2	$103	61	61	+0	No	+$3	06-04 07:34
will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	2	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$1	07-30 17:46
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	2	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$1	10-16 08:10
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	2	$101	60	60	+0	open	—	06-24 05:06
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	2	$100	52	52	+0	No	+$2	05-01 05:05
will russia enter ternuvate again by august 31	1	$100	110	0	+110	No	+$10	08-07 15:54
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	2	$99	54	54	+0	open	—	11-02 15:04
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	2	$71	79	0	+79	No	+$8	02-26 21:03
will russia enter moskovka by august 31	1	$66	77	0	+77	No	+$11	08-07 15:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 15:04:12	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	90¢	$49	0x54e98c…
11-02 15:03:28	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x832e48…
11-02 15:02:49	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x4becbd…
10-19 20:34:36	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	42	12¢	$5	0xbf2991…
10-16 09:22:34	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x7c57dc…
10-16 08:12:00	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xb1d789…
10-16 08:10:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0x3e9677…
10-15 18:05:11	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x9ac021…
10-14 06:17:43	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x7cb6e2…
10-08 13:53:35	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x214658…
10-08 13:51:18	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x1b5a11…
10-05 08:47:17	will ukraine re enter terny by october 31 2026	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xeb44d4…
09-24 13:35:35	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	No	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0xe982b8…
09-22 13:03:37	Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?	No	SELL	65	97¢	$63	0x12a44e…
09-22 13:03:16	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x8aa414…
09-15 17:54:18	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x466bc5…
09-09 06:21:39	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xffb896…
08-31 17:00:24	Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x08bc3c…
08-26 17:04:31	Will Russia capture Svitle by August 31?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x43ffab…
08-26 16:58:33	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0x11d72a…
08-24 09:00:58	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0xd3fe64…
08-07 15:57:00	will russia enter moskovka by august 31	No	BUY	77	86¢	$66	0xd47a74…
08-07 15:54:21	will russia enter ternuvate again by august 31	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x82585a…
08-07 12:43:13	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by august 31 2026	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x28abb8…
07-30 17:47:09	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xf3bf33…
07-30 17:46:47	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x5085e3…
07-22 09:10:33	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	9	87¢	$7	0x1e0c85…
07-21 07:55:01	will ukraine re enter hryshyne by july 31 20260604220043035	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xb95cb2…
07-07 12:47:11	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x3c777b…
06-25 09:42:44	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260609011545512	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x603c5e…
06-24 05:06:26	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	60	84¢	$51	0x56a190…
06-18 14:35:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x80ee12…
06-16 07:54:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xb0c2a6…
06-11 21:11:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	16	57¢	$9	0xfb5b8c…
06-11 19:14:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x7ddda5…
06-10 08:56:25	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260609011545512	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x73a411…
06-09 12:33:33	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	112	89¢	$100	0x5744de…
06-09 04:46:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	86	93¢	$80	0x14d75e…
06-05 17:08:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0xbe6157…
06-04 07:42:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x9fc3cc…
06-04 07:37:22	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xc1a7d3…
06-04 07:34:24	will russia capture serhiivka by july 31	No	SELL	61	87¢	$53	0xcfe638…
06-01 06:11:11	Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x118342…
06-01 05:45:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x675c3a…
06-01 05:45:07	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x92d464…
06-01 05:44:54	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?	No	SELL	121	100¢	$121	0x723524…
05-29 10:20:50	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x817334…
05-29 10:20:34	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	SELL	36	13¢	$5	0xe989c2…
05-29 10:19:17	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x20f1c9…
05-26 17:17:20	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x8e95e6…
05-25 13:42:21	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0xbe3525…
05-22 13:47:10	Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xdd0ee0…
05-22 07:13:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x87781c…
05-19 08:56:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x1efb26…
05-18 14:00:21	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x9ba30e…
05-12 08:03:11	Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	155	97¢	$150	0x800cfe…
05-12 08:01:35	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x15957b…
05-12 07:57:37	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x31b6d0…
05-09 16:40:32	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	No	SELL	195	95¢	$184	0xe254f7…
05-06 09:01:14	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x0b3087…
05-05 13:17:54	Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	223	91¢	$202	0x4de059…
05-04 08:39:20	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x1f3490…
05-01 14:27:54	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	No	BUY	195	77¢	$150	0xa25ce1…
05-01 14:23:24	Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	223	90¢	$200	0x5dfd6c…
05-01 05:06:42	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	164	96¢	$157	0x2e1b5a…
05-01 05:05:58	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$51	0x790ab6…
05-01 05:05:50	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	No	SELL	241	100¢	$240	0x87b98f…
04-29 08:21:36	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	No	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0x84bebc…
04-29 08:21:14	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x4c5fc4…
04-27 15:21:56	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	92¢	$150	0x6ab5b3…
04-27 15:00:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	340	96¢	$326	0xd66edc…
04-24 20:42:14	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	90	11¢	$10	0x8a2903…
04-20 17:30:52	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x7a9d9d…
04-07 16:13:37	Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?	No	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0x3d391d…
04-01 04:23:41	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0x036aee…
04-01 04:22:13	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0xb32bca…
04-01 04:22:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	150	99¢	$149	0xbef896…
03-25 12:41:41	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xa6073e…
03-23 10:52:57	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x5ca0e8…
03-18 14:01:57	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	SELL	110	94¢	$103	0x6c0265…
03-16 05:48:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0x8c5b48…
03-16 05:38:17	Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?	No	SELL	129	52¢	$68	0xb59512…
03-15 07:16:07	Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?	No	BUY	129	74¢	$95	0xf56c2e…
03-14 17:10:13	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by march 31	No	SELL	129	74¢	$95	0xd15afd…
03-13 09:20:39	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by march 31	No	BUY	129	77¢	$99	0xae7d66…
03-09 09:20:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	150	60¢	$90	0x70b056…
03-02 09:14:49	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0xa281ff…
03-02 09:10:13	will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	No	BUY	97	72¢	$70	0xf720f1…
02-26 21:03:06	will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xe0d76b…
02-02 15:23:10	will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	No	BUY	28	75¢	$21	0xc5b343…
01-28 18:39:30	will russia capture kostyantynivka by january 31	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x561024…
01-26 05:52:38	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaa39a0…
01-24 06:27:56	us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x60eaad…
01-24 06:26:48	us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0x2e8494…
01-21 09:37:00	us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x569b26…