Ill-Pigeon — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$9

Unrealized P&L

-$71

Hit rate

74.9%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

262 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$1.40K

$8.18K lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$308

1 position

First seen

2026-05-31

last 10-29 09:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

43% 61% +$218

Sports

37% 23% -$179

Politics

20% — —

Tech

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes		+467	$379	66¢	$308	-$71	10-29 09:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	27	$749	2,075	2,075	+0	No	-$285	07-14 20:45
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	8	$605	811	345	+467	open	—	10-29 09:49
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	18	$489	1,057	1,057	+0	Yes	+$115	07-19 22:05
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	13	$461	1,264	1,264	+0	No	-$13	07-15 20:46
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$354	863	863	+0	No	+$14	07-15 21:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	4	$331	201	201	+0	No	+$24	07-15 10:32
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	5	$296	187	187	+0	No	+$20	08-22 08:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$276	178	178	+0	No	+$46	07-07 10:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$260	234	234	+0	open	—	10-29 09:47
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	9	$215	153	153	+0	Yes	+$15	06-30 22:17
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	4	$206	205	205	+0	open	—	10-29 09:47
will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	3	$196	114	114	+0	Yes	+$32	07-10 21:01
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	2	$194	130	130	+0	No	-$1	06-28 13:26
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	2	$187	169	169	+0	open	—	10-29 09:47
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	7	$173	216	216	+0	Yes	-$1	07-14 22:19
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$147	128	128	+0	open	—	10-27 16:57
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	2	$123	333	333	+0	open	—	10-11 11:24
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	3	$117	378	378	+0	open	—	10-23 11:43
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	3	$110	113	113	+0	Yes	-$43	07-10 20:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$105	77	77	+0	No	+$5	08-13 15:39
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	2	$104	59	59	+0	Yes	+$14	07-19 12:45
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	4	$102	113	63	+50	Yes	+$22	06-26 11:21
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$101	229	229	+0	open	—	10-13 12:26
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$99	76	76	+0	open	—	10-27 12:57
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	2	$96	357	357	+0	open	—	10-27 12:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$95	54	54	+0	Yes	+$5	10-24 09:56
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	2	$95	364	364	+0	open	—	10-27 12:39
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	2	$91	57	57	+0	Yes	+$22	10-18 17:25
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	5	$82	49	49	+0	Yes	+$14	06-24 23:51
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	2	$79	56	56	+0	open	—	10-15 12:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:49:16	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	188	56¢	$106	0x856c28…
10-29 09:47:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	120	88¢	$106	0xaaf1f3…
10-29 09:47:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	279	53¢	$149	0x09f43a…
10-29 09:47:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	169	44¢	$74	0xb6e38c…
10-29 09:47:11	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	142	53¢	$75	0x81923c…
10-28 15:09:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	169	67¢	$113	0x133f42…
10-28 15:08:40	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	345	33¢	$113	0x275bb7…
10-28 14:43:32	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	142	57¢	$81	0x5b729c…
10-27 17:24:00	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	62	39¢	$24	0xb3ab78…
10-27 17:06:57	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x4fb7ff…
10-27 16:57:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	128	64¢	$82	0x479847…
10-27 12:58:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x48d448…
10-27 12:57:11	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	66¢	$50	0xcd0796…
10-27 12:41:12	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x732a1e…
10-27 12:40:54	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	627	1¢	$8	0xe1a488…
10-27 12:39:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	64	70¢	$45	0x8b5797…
10-27 12:39:05	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	364	13¢	$47	0x0c4311…
10-27 12:30:59	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	64	71¢	$45	0xff24f2…
10-27 12:30:03	Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	357	13¢	$46	0xc554ed…
10-25 13:01:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	54	69¢	$37	0x1ce495…
10-24 12:56:09	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	44	18¢	$8	0x59b5cb…
10-24 12:54:54	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	SELL	42	17¢	$7	0xe2929a…
10-24 10:04:30	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x6b8f0f…
10-24 10:04:21	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x0aa9dd…
10-24 09:56:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	54	93¢	$50	0x42658f…
10-23 11:43:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	97	62¢	$60	0x503e64…
10-23 11:43:20	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	378	17¢	$64	0xe1772a…
10-23 11:42:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	114	49¢	$56	0xe6f5be…
10-18 17:25:59	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0x786dfc…
10-18 14:15:23	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	57	61¢	$35	0x497651…
10-18 14:14:09	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	72¢	$35	0x7c4df2…
10-15 12:44:14	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	70¢	$39	0xf61a75…
10-14 22:00:57	openai reports another ai sandbox escape by october 31 20261012	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x0c6dcc…
10-14 21:50:57	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0x71e7fe…
10-14 17:52:57	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x3f4f35…
10-13 17:15:06	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x41fb02…
10-13 17:09:27	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	208	10¢	$21	0xa94b1d…
10-13 12:28:46	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	65¢	$49	0x73b992…
10-13 12:26:01	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	229	22¢	$51	0x9498a8…
10-11 11:32:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	54	84¢	$45	0x9a35b2…
10-11 11:31:56	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x18e940…
10-11 11:24:08	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	333	22¢	$73	0xa8b0da…
09-19 14:14:23	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	107	54¢	$58	0x00083f…
09-19 14:12:53	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	312	13¢	$41	0x329c58…
09-19 14:12:30	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	230	9¢	$21	0x094060…
08-22 08:29:49	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xa0b0d2…
08-22 08:29:16	Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	357	14¢	$50	0xc6789a…
08-22 08:28:58	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	229	22¢	$50	0x4a9573…
08-22 08:28:12	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x25a2f7…
08-22 08:27:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	120	94¢	$113	0x49e6ac…
08-13 15:42:37	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	186	15¢	$28	0x35b113…
08-13 15:40:25	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0xe60a18…
08-13 15:39:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	77	71¢	$55	0xd4735c…
08-11 17:51:00	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	364	13¢	$47	0xd35b6c…
08-11 17:50:10	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0xf6ae8a…
07-31 16:54:48	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	230	13¢	$30	0xfe2f97…
07-24 13:23:39	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$5	0x0859e3…
07-19 22:56:45	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x7fcedb…
07-19 22:05:48	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0xb19563…
07-19 12:46:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0x65e244…
07-19 12:45:09	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0xcbfbcc…
07-15 23:09:50	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	59	76¢	$45	0xc65557…
07-15 22:56:47	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	80¢	$35	0xa922c3…
07-15 22:32:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x01bfea…
07-15 21:13:07	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	279	58¢	$161	0x79a957…
07-15 21:05:28	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	196	42¢	$82	0x6cc17a…
07-15 20:48:40	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	196	22¢	$43	0x50b3f3…
07-15 20:46:05	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	214	22¢	$46	0x3adf66…
07-15 20:16:08	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	57	32¢	$18	0x967841…
07-15 20:15:40	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	193	10¢	$20	0xdd379a…
07-15 20:09:47	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	158	22¢	$35	0x6c62e2…
07-15 20:08:04	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	167	22¢	$38	0x4b9ca7…
07-15 19:44:14	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	167	23¢	$39	0xbc3f94…
07-15 19:43:55	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	190	22¢	$42	0xf0840d…
07-15 19:38:38	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	190	23¢	$44	0xcceb45…
07-15 19:37:50	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	202	24¢	$48	0x334e30…
07-15 19:36:23	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	193	19¢	$37	0x9f5cfb…
07-15 19:35:35	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	205	19¢	$40	0x4aeb24…
07-15 10:36:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	120	76¢	$91	0x8bf258…
07-15 10:32:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	103	89¢	$92	0xfcb155…
07-15 09:29:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xc34a6f…
07-14 22:19:58	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0xa77c3a…
07-14 22:19:40	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	16	46¢	$7	0xe777d0…
07-14 22:17:23	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	175	23¢	$40	0x0a7204…
07-14 22:17:19	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	205	19¢	$40	0xf3d2af…
07-14 22:16:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	98	88¢	$86	0x9604f7…
07-14 20:45:47	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	41	55¢	$23	0xd5da29…
07-14 20:45:17	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,377	2¢	$25	0xc56d48…
07-13 22:29:52	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	83	21¢	$18	0x10f43d…
07-13 22:29:28	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	33	56¢	$19	0x77deca…
07-12 22:15:22	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	33	57¢	$19	0x8e92f4…
07-12 22:12:38	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	56	35¢	$19	0x94f798…
07-12 22:11:01	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0xbc873c…
07-12 10:21:58	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	46	45¢	$21	0x19b406…
07-12 01:36:49	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x62e046…
07-10 21:05:31	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0x122f17…
07-10 21:04:52	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1b13b1…
07-10 21:04:35	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x675b37…
07-10 21:04:08	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xbd3958…
07-10 21:03:13	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	93	38¢	$35	0x75cb33…