Shadowy-Making — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.3%

Resolved

Trades

192

lifetime

Volume

$450

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 07-13 19:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

39% 67% +$21

Crypto

38% — —

Other

17% 0% $-1

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	3	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	04-23 17:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$40	22	22	+0	open	—	04-23 20:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	8	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	04-24 19:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	6	$17	193	25	+168	open	—	04-24 20:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	5	$16	95	14	+82	open	—	04-24 20:41
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 15?	2	$15	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 12:14
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	2	$13	0	17	-17	open	—	06-21 03:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	4	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 20:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	3	$12	23	0	+23	open	—	04-24 21:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-24 20:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	3	$8	13	12	+1	open	—	04-24 20:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	04-24 20:37
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-23 08:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	5	$7	57	0	+57	open	—	04-24 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	1	$7	22	0	+22	open	—	04-24 21:00
btc updown 5m 1777059600	3	$6	9	0	+9	open	—	04-24 19:43
will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	1	$6	0	56	-56	open	—	07-06 12:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-24 19:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	3	$5	27	0	+27	open	—	04-24 20:02
btc updown 5m 1777055400	3	$5	25	0	+25	open	—	04-24 18:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	05-23 08:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-24 20:33
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-24 19:58
btc updown 5m 1777055100	3	$4	7	3	+4	open	—	04-24 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	04-24 20:06
btc updown 5m 1777054800	4	$4	23	0	+23	open	—	04-24 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	4	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	04-24 19:57
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-24 19:58
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	05-06 22:59
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$3	101	51	+49	open	—	04-24 10:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 19:27:59	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xd6941d…
07-06 12:35:08	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes	SELL	56	10¢	$6	0x3dec09…
06-22 08:11:22	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x5d0549…
06-21 03:31:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	79¢	$7	0xa0af0d…
06-21 03:31:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	79¢	$7	0x580352…
06-17 15:50:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xa9fbb5…
06-17 15:50:17	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x378875…
06-17 15:50:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x418d84…
06-17 15:49:52	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xae8418…
06-10 20:14:39	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0xce6eeb…
05-31 18:12:07	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x6212ab…
05-29 10:37:45	Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0xefbaad…
05-28 16:31:00	Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0xedf818…
05-26 07:51:24	Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3abf95…
05-26 07:49:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc6463d…
05-24 14:21:39	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x02746c…
05-23 08:17:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x4cbc36…
05-23 08:17:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x3f4b03…
05-20 13:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x5dec86…
05-15 12:14:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xeb6968…
05-15 10:15:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x7cfffa…
05-14 19:28:21	FDA approves AstraZeneca's Camizestrant?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x72b24a…
05-14 19:22:29	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x923990…
05-14 19:20:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd63821…
05-14 19:20:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x2a12ae…
05-14 19:20:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xafa427…
05-14 19:15:13	Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0e373e…
05-14 18:02:52	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb8bd31…
05-14 13:19:01	Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xfd6474…
05-14 13:18:38	Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xeae538…
05-14 13:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x82fba6…
05-14 13:17:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x2ffb57…
05-09 21:17:52	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0xe13df1…
05-09 14:47:48	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	43	2¢	$1	0x2ae413…
05-09 13:59:42	Netanyahu out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x751eeb…
05-09 13:57:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x47d20c…
05-09 13:37:13	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xdea104…
05-08 18:49:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xfef9ea…
05-08 18:49:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xea3f3e…
05-06 22:59:06	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x7b6571…
05-02 12:41:20	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xedeae6…
05-02 12:31:48	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x59fab6…
05-01 20:56:36	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x3ccb03…
05-01 11:10:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x9b6ce9…
05-01 11:09:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x19e229…
04-29 23:10:20	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xddbb87…
04-29 23:09:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0xf5e3e8…
04-24 21:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x0964f7…
04-24 21:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xb493d5…
04-24 21:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x60d87a…
04-24 21:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xc8d8bf…
04-24 21:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xb63d46…
04-24 21:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x3e6583…
04-24 21:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x626f25…
04-24 21:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7d0780…
04-24 21:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x11a37c…
04-24 21:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x5f4586…
04-24 20:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xecaa82…
04-24 20:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xd43272…
04-24 20:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2b28a6…
04-24 20:53:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x1dee7a…
04-24 20:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0x4ebc9b…
04-24 20:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xe30776…
04-24 20:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x07939a…
04-24 20:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x81bad2…
04-24 20:41:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x1d0171…
04-24 20:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x2fccd1…
04-24 20:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	14	18¢	$2	0x84fabb…
04-24 20:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd011ad…
04-24 20:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x6ee023…
04-24 20:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xdf7682…
04-24 20:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x2c3e1c…
04-24 20:26:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x78bf2a…
04-24 20:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x01edd9…
04-24 20:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x1714f3…
04-24 20:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x129190…
04-24 20:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x099da0…
04-24 20:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xbc5213…
04-24 20:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x61e8f7…
04-24 20:20:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x55d328…
04-24 20:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	25	27¢	$7	0xf84769…
04-24 20:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0x47eaad…
04-24 20:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xd2a6ce…
04-24 20:07:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0xb114a8…
04-24 20:07:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x904cf8…
04-24 20:06:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x4a0cba…
04-24 20:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x235e1f…
04-24 20:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x977c87…
04-24 20:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x496105…
04-24 20:02:22	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0x4ff65a…
04-24 20:02:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x111d17…
04-24 20:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xbdd2ca…
04-24 20:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x1e17c7…
04-24 19:58:20	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xe81596…
04-24 19:58:02	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x13db8f…
04-24 19:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xbaa1e3…
04-24 19:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbf8673…
04-24 19:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9088c5…
04-24 19:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2099a4…
04-24 19:52:02	btc updown 5m 1777060200	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa5793a…