Infantile-Reconsideration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.03K

Unrealized P&L

-$23

Hit rate

77.4%

Resolved

5,206

Trades

19,521

lifetime

Volume

$521.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$40

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 10-13 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 180 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 71% -$1,001

Tech

0% — —

Other

0% 0% -$10

Politics

0% 0% -$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	+29	$15	78¢	$23	+$8	09-11 10:33
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	+29	$15	22¢	$7	-$8	09-13 01:59
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+11	$17	58¢	$6	-$11	09-11 15:00
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+11	$16	42¢	$4	-$12	09-11 14:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 16:30 UTC	2	$1.4K	723	723	+0	Up	+$4	02-17 16:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 16:35 UTC	2	$1.0K	536	535	+1	Up	+$30	02-17 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 17:55 UTC	5	$1.0K	615	407	+208	Up	+$11	02-17 17:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 01:30 UTC	20	$860	464	463	+1	Down	+$45	03-21 01:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 02:55 UTC	24	$852	458	458	+1	Down	+$37	03-21 02:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 01:05 UTC	6	$841	439	438	+0	Up	+$27	03-21 01:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 02:40 UTC	10	$839	458	457	+2	Up	+$56	03-21 02:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 00:50 UTC	32	$838	453	453	+1	Up	+$23	03-21 00:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:50 UTC	4	$838	448	448	+1	Up	+$23	03-20 19:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 05:25 UTC	29	$837	464	462	+2	Up	+$33	03-21 05:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 05:15 UTC	19	$836	458	457	+2	Up	+$34	03-21 05:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 16:30 UTC	8	$835	439	438	+1	Down	+$24	03-20 16:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 15:55 UTC	48	$835	469	468	+1	Down	+$20	03-20 15:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 17:40 UTC	18	$834	448	448	+0	Down	+$18	03-20 17:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 00:00 UTC	21	$834	453	453	+0	Up	+$18	03-21 00:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 02:15 UTC	3	$833	434	434	+0	Up	+$18	03-21 02:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 03:00 UTC	16	$832	469	467	+2	Down	+$20	03-21 03:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 19:00 UTC	3	$832	448	447	+1	Up	+$28	03-20 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 02:30 UTC	35	$830	448	447	+1	Down	+$21	03-21 02:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 01:15 UTC	3	$830	448	447	+1	Down	+$21	03-21 01:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 23:00 UTC	9	$829	429	429	+0	Down	+$13	03-20 23:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 18:50 UTC	14	$826	464	464	+0	Up	+$10	03-20 18:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 04:30 UTC	18	$825	469	467	+2	Down	+$36	03-21 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 00:15 UTC	10	$825	439	437	+1	Up	+$42	03-21 00:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 17:50 UTC	61	$824	469	468	+1	Up	+$10	03-20 17:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 22:00 UTC	15	$824	434	433	+1	Up	+$26	03-20 22:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 06:15 UTC	4	$824	429	429	+1	Up	+$17	03-21 06:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 23:05 UTC	18	$823	453	451	+2	Down	+$36	03-20 23:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 18:35 UTC	3	$822	434	433	+1	Down	+$28	03-20 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 01:20 UTC	7	$820	443	443	+0	Down	+$4	03-21 01:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 17:52:55	Ethereum tapered issuance burn implemented by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xd94745…
10-13 17:17:49	Ethereum tapered issuance burn implemented by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x12cb57…
10-13 16:41:58	Ethereum tapered issuance burn implemented by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xee8997…
10-13 16:25:58	Will Chris Godwin have 699.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xb55235…
10-13 16:25:22	Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xa507e7…
10-13 16:22:52	Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x7ddc4d…
10-13 16:22:31	Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	No	SELL	23	44¢	$10	0x7fd940…
10-13 16:21:28	Will Amon-Ra St. Brown have 13.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe5115f…
10-13 16:21:28	Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xaeb2b1…
10-13 16:21:28	Will Amon-Ra St. Brown have 13.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x988904…
10-13 16:16:55	Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x5ad0d3…
10-13 16:16:55	Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x393e6e…
10-13 16:16:33	Will Amon-Ra St. Brown have 13.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xe3002d…
10-13 16:16:33	Will Amon-Ra St. Brown have 13.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0x4f59c9…
09-17 03:00:40	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0xcfea18…
09-17 03:00:27	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xdfc186…
09-13 11:40:18	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	224	65¢	$146	0xe2f6c2…
09-13 01:59:46	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	37	54¢	$20	0x8c04e1…
09-13 01:59:39	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	19	54¢	$10	0x44f536…
09-11 15:00:16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	358	23¢	$82	0xf0ca1d…
09-11 15:00:00	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0xf00829…
09-11 15:00:00	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	102	26¢	$26	0x091d2c…
09-11 14:59:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	162	73¢	$118	0xf3d5f5…
09-11 14:59:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	162	27¢	$44	0xf3d5f5…
09-11 13:42:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0x09dce3…
09-11 13:38:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x8c8193…
09-11 13:34:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	162	78¢	$126	0x00b6cf…
09-11 13:26:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	121	22¢	$27	0x3cf848…
09-11 13:26:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	167	22¢	$37	0xcd705f…
09-11 13:10:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x624590…
09-11 10:33:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	48	46¢	$22	0xffd21d…
09-11 10:33:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	54¢	$30	0xffd21d…
09-11 09:54:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	172	24¢	$41	0x4ef5f7…
09-11 09:54:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	21	25¢	$5	0x9a3076…
09-11 09:54:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	161	26¢	$42	0x4b913e…
09-11 08:28:21	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	32	26¢	$8	0xe44fcd…
09-11 04:02:55	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	383	36¢	$138	0xe50f44…
09-10 18:32:27	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	76	48¢	$36	0xcfffb6…
09-10 13:58:52	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xeee086…
09-10 12:50:54	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x52bf3f…
09-10 12:41:46	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x2370e3…
09-10 12:40:16	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xc0dcd3…
09-10 12:33:37	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x671ab1…
09-10 12:32:01	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xb529b2…
09-10 11:48:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf8e64e…
09-10 09:36:54	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x45656a…
09-10 09:18:43	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x369c79…
09-10 09:11:36	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x2792c9…
09-10 08:24:58	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x46f480…
09-08 01:33:22	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	255	36¢	$92	0x2a53f1…
09-07 17:13:49	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	224	63¢	$141	0xab3f2e…
09-07 17:13:34	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	212	38¢	$80	0x0c2cae…
09-07 16:19:16	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	258	29¢	$75	0x6773f0…
09-07 13:38:04	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	46	38¢	$17	0xad4dda…
09-04 00:54:46	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	66	40¢	$26	0x6dff8d…
09-03 23:23:07	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	192	40¢	$77	0xb0741b…
09-02 20:00:37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	228	85¢	$194	0x526f60…
09-02 20:00:28	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	228	14¢	$32	0x37bd45…
09-01 21:40:52	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	228	87¢	$198	0x3868cb…
09-01 21:40:48	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	88¢	$224	0x2024d7…
09-01 21:40:34	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	510	11¢	$56	0x2c4205…
09-01 19:25:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	228	19¢	$43	0x26e95e…
08-31 17:22:19	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	9¢	$3	0xe9a4d1…
08-31 17:22:15	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	107	9¢	$10	0x860271…
08-31 17:22:15	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	110	9¢	$10	0x5aa21b…
08-31 16:22:28	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	91¢	$232	0xa686e6…
08-31 16:22:13	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	255	15¢	$38	0x0d42c9…
08-31 11:04:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	521	47¢	$245	0x63e1e0…
08-30 20:04:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	260	48¢	$125	0xba041c…
08-30 18:28:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	260	50¢	$130	0x37c6c5…
08-27 18:00:00	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x4b5cf7…
08-26 10:25:04	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x4a9db9…
08-26 08:16:07	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x880f9a…
08-17 14:23:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x4a2f50…
08-17 14:23:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	24	75¢	$18	0x7bb0df…
08-17 14:23:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0xd8c6f1…
08-17 14:23:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0xa52dab…
08-17 14:23:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 14:20 UTC	Down	SELL	13	75¢	$10	0x7fe2ed…
08-17 14:23:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 14:20 UTC	Down	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x35daa3…
08-14 13:07:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 13:05 UTC	Down	SELL	61	75¢	$46	0xd0ae9a…
08-14 13:06:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x149f95…
08-14 01:09:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 01:05 UTC	Down	SELL	60	99¢	$60	0xa4ebd0…
08-14 01:07:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 01:05 UTC	Down	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xcd976b…
08-13 11:36:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 11:35 UTC	Down	SELL	61	68¢	$42	0x7a19a1…
08-13 11:35:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x4d43e0…
08-13 08:13:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 08:10 UTC	Down	SELL	62	79¢	$49	0xb5c61a…
08-13 08:13:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	63	80¢	$50	0x8ed013…
08-11 20:09:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 20:05 UTC	Up	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0xd247ce…
08-11 20:07:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xbcda00…
08-10 09:49:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 09:45 UTC	Down	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0xca8097…
08-10 09:46:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xef171f…
08-10 02:03:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	63	80¢	$50	0xd700ca…
08-09 21:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	27	77¢	$21	0xe90bb5…
08-09 21:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xddfbe1…
08-09 21:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0xa57569…
08-09 21:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x9859e9…
08-09 21:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x93c02c…
08-09 21:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x706f64…
08-09 21:43:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x39dca1…
08-09 21:43:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x21877c…