Daring-Arch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$30.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$378

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 09-05 12:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 89% +$5

Other

23% 91% $0

Sports

21% 47% -$14

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	2	$3.4K	1,738	1,722	+16	No	-$2	02-04 13:15
will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on february 12	2	$3.3K	1,658	1,620	+38	No	+$0	02-12 13:31
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	3	$3.2K	1,603	1,602	+2	No	-$2	02-05 11:26
will meituan have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$3.2K	1,594	1,580	+14	No	-$2	02-09 02:16
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	2	$3.1K	1,548	1,522	+26	No	-$1	02-12 01:17
solana above 110 on february 9	2	$1.6K	1,639	0	+1,639	No	+$2	02-09 02:17
solana above 140 on february 12	2	$1.6K	1,638	0	+1,638	No	+$2	02-12 13:31
nba sas lal 2026 02 10	1	$1.6K	1,622	0	+1,622	Spurs	+$2	02-11 04:59
will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on february 10	1	$1.6K	1,620	0	+1,620	No	+$2	02-10 06:02
bitcoin above 78k on february 7	1	$1.6K	1,618	0	+1,618	No	+$2	02-07 06:15
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 240 259	1	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$2	02-05 11:28
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	1	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$2	02-06 06:27
nba was cle 2026 02 11	8	$1.6K	1,576	0	+1,576	Cavaliers	+$3	02-12 03:11
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$199	102	100	+2	No	+$1	02-12 05:51
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 260 279	2	$126	126	0	+126	No	+$0	01-29 09:05
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$109	109	0	+109	No	+$0	04-21 07:16
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	1	$72	73	0	+73	No	+$1	07-15 18:33
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	1	$43	43	0	+43	No	+$0	03-15 08:37
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	05-16 14:33
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 20 39	2	$38	39	0	+39	No	+$0	02-08 06:01
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	06-07 11:56
xrp above 1pt6 on february 11	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	02-11 09:48
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	05-16 17:07
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 580plus	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	03-15 08:36
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 520 539	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	02-13 02:02
will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	06-07 11:56
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	08-16 03:07
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in September?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	09-05 12:35
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 40 59	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	02-28 13:53
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 0 19	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	02-04 07:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-05 12:35:45	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in September?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x09c20d…
09-05 12:34:34	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd4dfdb…
08-16 03:07:25	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x291461…
08-16 03:06:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xec7cd9…
07-15 18:33:47	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	73	98¢	$72	0xa9659b…
07-15 14:53:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf4abd6…
07-15 13:30:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0xd70e31…
07-15 13:30:17	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x55f987…
06-07 11:57:16	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x941a94…
06-07 11:56:55	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xccd91d…
06-07 11:56:43	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xef4d11…
05-16 17:07:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$32	0xa02e32…
05-16 14:33:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x18fe7f…
05-16 14:33:08	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x6428bf…
05-16 14:32:55	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc291fb…
05-16 14:32:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x79c55d…
04-21 07:16:16	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x84409e…
04-21 07:15:48	nba por sas 2026 04 21	Spurs	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x2f6535…
04-21 07:15:40	nba phi bos 2026 04 21	Celtics	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xe9422e…
03-19 05:09:29	nba cle chi 2026 03 19	Cavaliers	BUY	13	88¢	$11	0x6da6a4…
03-19 05:09:13	nba phx sas 2026 03 19	Spurs	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0xf2d604…
03-15 08:37:19	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x9d110a…
03-15 08:36:59	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 580plus	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x862b33…
03-15 08:36:47	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 580plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x113b09…
03-15 08:36:31	nba dal cle 2026 03 15	Cavaliers	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xbd33a0…
03-15 08:36:23	nba sas lac 2026 03 16	Spurs	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x5c744d…
03-15 08:36:07	nba gsw nyk 2026 03 15	Knicks	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xa593ad…
02-28 13:53:07	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 40 59	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf10531…
02-28 13:52:55	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 140 159	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x840a07…
02-28 13:52:27	will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe428fd…
02-13 02:03:13	will xrp reach 4 in february 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0b9245…
02-13 02:02:23	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 520 539	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xc69862…
02-12 13:31:39	solana above 140 on february 12	No	BUY	1,620	100¢	$1,618	0xf4fa54…
02-12 13:31:25	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on february 12	No	SELL	1,620	100¢	$1,618	0x11c068…
02-12 13:30:31	solana above 140 on february 12	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x52fd3c…
02-12 13:30:07	nba mil okc 2026 02 12	Thunder	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xcd0d7e…
02-12 06:19:33	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on february 12	No	BUY	1,658	100¢	$1,657	0x520a4a…
02-12 05:52:21	solana above 130 on february 12	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0cdad7…
02-12 05:51:59	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x7039d7…
02-12 03:11:43	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	227	100¢	$227	0x26a85b…
02-12 03:04:43	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x33f18d…
02-12 03:03:43	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x09c79d…
02-12 03:02:59	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe396a4…
02-12 02:58:49	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xcf4320…
02-12 02:57:09	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb99d64…
02-12 02:55:25	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	1,232	100¢	$1,231	0x65f844…
02-12 01:17:11	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	No	SELL	1,522	100¢	$1,516	0xd06830…
02-11 09:48:59	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	No	BUY	1,548	100¢	$1,543	0x712586…
02-11 09:48:35	xrp above 1pt6 on february 11	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x013f02…
02-11 09:47:25	solana above 100 on february 11	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4e98f0…
02-11 09:46:31	nba was cle 2026 02 11	Cavaliers	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xf0362b…
02-11 09:46:21	nba mem den 2026 02 11	Nuggets	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x0711da…
02-11 09:46:13	nba sas gsw 2026 02 11	Spurs	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xa9ba4e…
02-11 04:59:53	nba sas lal 2026 02 10	Spurs	BUY	1,622	100¢	$1,620	0x50a5fa…
02-10 06:02:13	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on february 10	No	BUY	1,620	100¢	$1,619	0x013e18…
02-10 05:59:09	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 580plus	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb747fd…
02-09 02:17:23	solana above 110 on february 9	No	BUY	953	100¢	$952	0xb7bab0…
02-09 02:17:15	solana above 110 on february 9	No	BUY	685	100¢	$684	0xdc4bcd…
02-09 02:16:57	will meituan have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	1,580	100¢	$1,577	0x9ef005…
02-08 06:01:29	will meituan have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	1,594	100¢	$1,592	0x2da19c…
02-08 06:01:07	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 20 39	No	BUY	27	100¢	$26	0x93a52f…
02-07 06:15:35	bitcoin above 78k on february 7	No	BUY	1,618	100¢	$1,616	0xd1044c…
02-06 06:27:27	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	No	BUY	1,600	100¢	$1,598	0xecdf09…
02-05 11:28:13	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 240 259	No	BUY	1,600	100¢	$1,599	0xa74afe…
02-05 11:26:15	Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	800	100¢	$798	0x8bc963…
02-05 11:25:45	Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	802	100¢	$800	0x73769e…
02-05 06:30:53	Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	1,603	100¢	$1,602	0x9763d1…
02-05 06:30:11	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x9cf84c…
02-05 06:29:53	nba was det 2026 02 05	Pistons	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xb7b12a…
02-05 06:29:39	nba cha hou 2026 02 05	Rockets	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe8f6b7…
02-04 13:15:08	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	SELL	1,722	100¢	$1,713	0x39f0a9…
02-04 07:56:28	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	BUY	1,738	100¢	$1,731	0xd6da9a…
02-04 07:35:12	nba okc sas 2026 02 04	Thunder	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x39799f…
02-04 07:35:04	nba den nyk 2026 02 04	Nuggets	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x788abe…
02-04 07:30:34	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 20 39	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf66703…
02-04 07:30:28	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 0 19	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb40764…
01-29 09:05:32	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 260 279	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x4cba7c…
01-29 09:05:18	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 740plus	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x47a395…
01-29 09:05:10	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 80 99	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x82046b…
01-29 09:04:52	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 260 279	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf7cca2…