Plain-Deviance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.5%

Resolved

Trades

283

lifetime

Volume

$4.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 05-20 03:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

71% — —

Crypto

19% 83% +$0

Politics

4% — —

Sports

4% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Carlos Espá finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$98	49	49	+0	open	—	04-13 06:51
highest temperature in paris on april 1 2026 16corhigher	2	$66	66	0	+66	open	—	04-01 14:08
Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?	4	$65	33	33	+0	open	—	04-13 06:53
xrp above 1pt3 on april 11	1	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	04-11 05:23
highest temperature in taipei on march 28 2026 19c	1	$58	58	0	+58	open	—	03-28 03:04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	2	$54	27	27	+0	open	—	05-14 23:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	2	$54	27	27	+0	open	—	05-13 21:07
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$54	27	27	+0	open	—	02-01 19:35
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	4	$54	27	27	+0	open	—	05-04 11:24
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	1	$53	53	0	+53	open	—	04-04 03:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?	2	$53	26	26	+0	Yes	+$0	05-09 13:02
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11?	5	$51	25	25	+0	No	$-0	05-11 09:24
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 14?	3	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	05-14 23:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?	2	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	05-16 00:28
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	04-30 02:52
highest temperature in houston on april 19 2026 78 79f	2	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	04-20 01:08
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	2	$49	25	25	+0	open	—	04-27 15:03
highest temperature in denver on april 7 2026 63forbelow	1	$48	48	0	+48	open	—	04-07 03:22
will grok 4pt20 beta 0309 reasoning be the top ai model on april 17 2026 style control on	6	$48	24	24	+0	open	—	04-17 01:30
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 22 2026 23corbelow	2	$47	24	24	+0	open	—	04-22 00:03
highest temperature in seattle on april 17 2026 68 69f	2	$47	23	23	+0	open	—	04-17 11:25
highest temperature in miami on april 18 2026 76 77f	2	$46	23	23	+0	open	—	04-18 02:52
will swim bts be the billboard hot 100 2 song for the week of april 25	2	$45	22	22	+0	open	—	04-20 01:09
highest temperature in miami on april 2 2026 86 87f	1	$44	44	0	+44	open	—	04-02 06:43
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 28?	4	$44	22	22	+0	open	—	04-27 17:28
highest temperature in austin on april 22 2026 70 71f	2	$43	22	22	+0	open	—	04-22 03:21
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on April 27?	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	04-27 15:06
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C or below on April 27?	3	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	04-26 22:33
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	5	$41	20	20	+0	open	—	05-01 06:11
highest temperature in lucknow on april 16 2026 43c	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	04-16 19:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 03:15:11	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7993d7…
05-19 16:35:06	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x01d181…
05-19 16:31:25	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5dbe17…
05-19 13:24:01	Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x86a687…
05-19 05:40:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2cf6d5…
05-19 03:57:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5a7bc1…
05-17 19:16:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xce1a25…
05-17 13:04:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xce7e79…
05-16 00:28:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x83a3ad…
05-15 19:38:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x165e77…
05-14 23:49:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 14?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x5bbf86…
05-14 23:19:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 14?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc206ba…
05-14 23:17:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x389c44…
05-14 14:16:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x680d2b…
05-14 13:14:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x5a7ad8…
05-13 21:07:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x831657…
05-13 18:35:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd69809…
05-12 00:01:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xad570d…
05-11 09:24:08	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9741f4…
05-11 09:18:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe8d021…
05-11 09:10:19	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd2f7ff…
05-11 09:10:01	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2cee57…
05-11 08:20:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7c1702…
05-10 16:50:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xace1a4…
05-10 00:26:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xcfb7b2…
05-09 21:59:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc0f2cd…
05-09 13:02:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x179590…
05-08 13:04:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x8520b0…
05-06 05:05:36	Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 6?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x95eb68…
05-05 15:57:50	Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x891237…
05-04 11:24:32	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbd249a…
05-04 10:20:34	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x1c14d6…
05-04 00:51:28	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x6f5e9c…
05-03 14:37:58	Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xad5a49…
05-03 05:48:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$17	0xb969db…
05-03 03:02:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0x3f9981…
05-02 14:50:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 2?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x4c793d…
05-02 08:45:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 2?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xbbc145…
05-01 06:11:00	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x3424af…
05-01 05:51:46	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd3367e…
05-01 05:50:04	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6669ef…
05-01 05:48:00	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4ba46d…
04-30 14:21:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xdb00c6…
04-30 09:07:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x05aba0…
04-30 02:52:54	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x56c15a…
04-29 09:47:02	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbcce40…
04-28 17:32:14	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa86d20…
04-27 17:28:48	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 28?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x15fd80…
04-27 17:08:36	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 28?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xac28f5…
04-27 16:58:28	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 28?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x02d874…
04-27 16:19:30	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 28?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd50b0f…
04-27 15:06:32	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on April 27?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$20	0xda865f…
04-27 15:03:36	Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x51f7f4…
04-27 14:03:16	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 28?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x0bc7e8…
04-27 07:06:14	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x41bfa6…
04-27 06:18:44	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on April 27?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x6b8f99…
04-27 05:55:40	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x744123…
04-27 03:08:08	Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x593816…
04-26 22:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C or below on April 27?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x871e6c…
04-26 22:32:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C or below on April 27?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x8f54f6…
04-26 22:29:54	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on April 27?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x6e9be4…
04-26 18:26:12	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on April 27?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x7faaf2…
04-26 15:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C or below on April 27?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x951356…
04-26 12:39:26	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x4e3214…
04-26 10:23:58	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on April 26?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1f4b22…
04-26 09:04:34	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 26?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xc665a9…
04-26 09:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x67b151…
04-26 09:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x54f6cb…
04-26 09:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 26?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x09f2d4…
04-26 09:01:28	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 26?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xfe09ed…
04-26 08:03:54	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 26?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4e3ddf…
04-26 06:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 26?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x3e9707…
04-25 22:56:26	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on April 26?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x969f24…
04-25 20:31:54	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on April 26?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5d48a1…
04-25 18:28:00	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 26?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa9f4c8…
04-25 15:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 25?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb0142c…
04-25 15:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 25?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x9f6c2a…
04-25 15:30:42	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 25?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8a8bd5…
04-25 09:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 25?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x870297…
04-25 02:08:54	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 25?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x752968…
04-25 01:04:26	highest temperature in denver on april 24 2026 78 79f	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x949cd9…
04-24 20:45:08	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C or below on April 25?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0xf3c459…
04-24 19:59:54	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $725 Week of April 20 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xff09f1…
04-24 18:45:26	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C or below on April 25?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x2032d0…
04-24 11:05:06	highest temperature in buenos aires on april 24 2026 19c	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf606b0…
04-24 08:24:12	highest temperature in london on april 24 2026 14c	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x6375ff…
04-24 07:59:10	will the price of xrp be between 1pt20 1pt30 on april 24	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x0b9a4c…
04-24 06:43:28	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $725 Week of April 20 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9aa003…
04-24 03:40:06	highest temperature in lucknow on april 24 2026 40corbelow	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x75850c…
04-24 02:00:54	highest temperature in san francisco on april 24 2026 48 49f	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x85dfc2…
04-24 01:59:36	lowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 39forbelow	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x655cce…
04-23 23:39:18	will the price of xrp be between 1pt20 1pt30 on april 24	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xec89a6…
04-23 22:54:52	highest temperature in denver on april 24 2026 78 79f	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xeee7a5…
04-23 19:25:26	highest temperature in chengdu on april 24 2026 23corbelow	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x27a0f9…
04-23 18:16:24	highest temperature in san francisco on april 24 2026 48 49f	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf4dd2a…
04-23 16:11:42	highest temperature in london on april 24 2026 14c	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2d7d50…
04-23 13:59:40	highest temperature in lucknow on april 24 2026 40corbelow	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x90f1eb…
04-23 11:12:48	highest temperature in chicago on april 23 2026 62forhigher	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x79eefb…
04-23 09:26:30	highest temperature in houston on april 23 2026 72 73f	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc2d261…
04-23 05:41:50	will boeings commercial airplane deliveries in q1 2026 be above 150	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x4c273d…