Harmless-Merchandise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$284

Hit rate

63.8%

Resolved

234

Trades

496

lifetime

Volume

$48.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

$1.38K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-23

last 10-28 05:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Other

53% 64% -$6,458

Sports

46% 29% -$5,055

Crypto

2% 61% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+5,250	$1,163	18¢	$919	-$244	10-22 02:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+16,010	$389	2¢	$392	+$3	10-27 23:06
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+11,423	$103	1¢	$63	-$40	10-27 08:27
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+1,200	$5	0¢	$3	-$2	10-10 01:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	27	$5.2K	25,198	0	+25,198	No	-$5,221	09-14 05:14
will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	4	$4.5K	5,861	0	+5,861	No	+$1,348	07-06 00:24
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$4.3K	11,107	0	+11,107	No	-$4,251	07-09 22:40
atp jodar medvede 2026 10 17	3	$4.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	Rafael Jodar	+$40	10-17 12:54
will belgium reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149733	4	$3.5K	4,043	0	+4,043	No	+$574	07-05 03:32
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 0pt5	3	$3.4K	2,911	750	+2,161	Over	+$144	07-09 11:00
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$2.7K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	-$2,715	07-07 03:53
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 spread home 2pt5	3	$2.5K	2,600	0	+2,600	Argentina	+$98	07-15 13:59
will lionel messi score 10 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	1	$2.4K	2,694	0	+2,694	No	+$259	07-19 06:10
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte3	1	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$50	07-19 08:38
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	5	$1.9K	4,558	0	+4,558	Yes	+$2,692	07-11 05:37
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$1.3K	51,200	0	+51,200	No	-$1,264	07-05 01:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	8	$1.2K	5,250	0	+5,250	open	—	10-22 02:42
atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 10pt5	2	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	Under	+$10	10-17 07:20
atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 match total 21pt5	2	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	Under	+$10	10-17 07:19
atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 9pt5	2	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	Under	+$10	10-17 07:19
atp jodar medvede 2026 10 17 game handicap away 2pt5	1	$874	883	0	+883	Rafael Jodar	+$9	10-17 12:58
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 first half total 0pt5	1	$726	1,100	0	+1,100	Under	-$726	07-09 11:26
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	15	$575	18,518	0	+18,518	No	-$575	07-05 14:21
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	3	$544	9,930	0	+9,930	No	-$544	07-05 01:37
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$426	775	0	+775	No	-$426	07-05 01:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	17	$389	16,010	0	+16,010	open	—	10-27 23:06
atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 8pt5	4	$287	290	0	+290	Over	-$287	10-17 07:19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	6	$278	39,775	0	+39,775	No	-$278	09-14 01:32
atp zverev fokina 2026 10 16 match total 21pt5	1	$264	267	0	+267	Over	+$3	10-17 09:56
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$236	1,075	0	+1,075	Yes	-$236	09-14 09:26
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 22?	1	$227	242	0	+242	No	+$14	10-22 18:53
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on October 22?	1	$181	184	0	+184	No	+$3	10-22 17:54
val g21 sen 2026 08 02 game2	1	$114	115	0	+115	G2 Esports	+$1	08-03 01:16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	12	$103	11,423	0	+11,423	open	—	10-27 08:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 05:55:43	Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on October 28?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3c8d18…
10-27 23:06:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,815	2¢	$106	0xaf611e…
10-27 23:01:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	4¢	$49	0x8defc9…
10-27 22:57:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	2¢	$26	0xfae6dd…
10-27 22:56:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	501	4¢	$19	0x7ba883…
10-27 08:30:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	3¢	$32	0x3b29c8…
10-27 08:27:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x1186eb…
10-26 04:32:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$17	0xc8e656…
10-25 16:11:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0xa4abd1…
10-25 15:18:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0x3a980b…
10-25 15:10:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0x3e0588…
10-25 15:05:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0x149cb4…
10-25 14:39:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	489	3¢	$13	0x57718b…
10-25 14:28:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0xe9f022…
10-25 14:10:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0x7773b8…
10-25 14:05:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0xc0e4d6…
10-25 13:56:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0x910aeb…
10-25 13:51:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0x5018bd…
10-25 13:45:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	506	3¢	$13	0xc5ae0c…
10-25 08:09:02	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x6b1062…
10-25 05:19:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x4ea10a…
10-25 05:10:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x30c835…
10-25 05:02:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x114079…
10-25 04:57:20	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0xe479f9…
10-25 01:44:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0xd69b47…
10-24 23:37:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x43d25f…
10-24 23:34:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x285e27…
10-24 23:30:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,712	0¢	$5	0x3f7113…
10-22 18:53:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 22?	No	BUY	242	94¢	$227	0x6b6d28…
10-22 17:54:00	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on October 22?	No	BUY	184	98¢	$181	0x9874ce…
10-22 02:43:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	2¢	$28	0x39626e…
10-22 02:42:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	19¢	$228	0xd496f4…
10-22 02:41:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x26363b…
10-22 02:40:20	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$4	0x9af592…
10-22 02:39:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$14	0x33f093…
10-18 10:22:14	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Over 2.5	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0xbad240…
10-17 12:58:54	atp jodar medvede 2026 10 17 game handicap away 2pt5	Rafael Jodar	BUY	883	99¢	$874	0x60acce…
10-17 12:55:15	atp jodar medvede 2026 10 17 set 2 winner Jodar vs Medvedev	Rafael Jodar	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x28aee1…
10-17 12:54:35	atp jodar medvede 2026 10 17	Rafael Jodar	BUY	3,930	99¢	$3,891	0x833fdb…
10-17 12:54:15	atp jodar medvede 2026 10 17	Rafael Jodar	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xba945c…
10-17 12:53:59	atp jodar medvede 2026 10 17	Rafael Jodar	BUY	64	99¢	$64	0x60c9a0…
10-17 10:10:51	atp zverev fokina 2026 10 16 set handicap home 1pt5	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xad4843…
10-17 10:10:51	atp zverev fokina 2026 10 16 set 2 winner Zverev vs Fokina	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	BUY	80	94¢	$76	0x07a051…
10-17 09:56:48	atp zverev fokina 2026 10 16 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	267	99¢	$264	0xb6fa3e…
10-17 07:20:06	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	900	99¢	$891	0xdcbf03…
10-17 07:20:03	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf5cf93…
10-17 07:19:48	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 match total 21pt5	Under	BUY	900	99¢	$891	0x7edac9…
10-17 07:19:48	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 9pt5	Under	BUY	900	99¢	$891	0x319c86…
10-17 07:19:45	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 9pt5	Under	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x9f27ce…
10-17 07:19:45	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 match total 21pt5	Under	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x979f23…
10-17 07:19:14	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xeb1c35…
10-17 07:19:11	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0xb21861…
10-17 07:19:11	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x88d254…
10-17 07:19:11	atp doubles schnwal miedobe 2026 10 16 set 2 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	80	99¢	$79	0x6b9b3f…
10-16 01:00:37	Exact Score: CA Huracán 1 - 1 Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x887d48…
10-14 19:52:57	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on October 14?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x44d5b5…
10-11 04:52:23	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on October 11?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9ad301…
10-10 01:39:50	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	0¢	$3	0x30c020…
10-09 21:51:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 9?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xcf69ba…
10-08 09:08:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	23¢	$138	0x92c60e…
10-08 09:06:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	0¢	$6	0x955d62…
10-08 09:05:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	0¢	$6	0x77cf5d…
10-07 03:50:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	0¢	$6	0xcc5735…
10-07 03:48:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	551	24¢	$132	0x927174…
10-07 03:46:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	49	23¢	$11	0x7050f1…
10-07 03:45:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,823	1¢	$53	0x3b602f…
10-06 15:37:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	0¢	$6	0xcb1bf6…
10-06 15:23:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$8	0xe6eb02…
10-06 15:22:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	0¢	$2	0xc5e912…
10-06 15:20:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	23¢	$276	0x72536e…
10-06 15:19:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	23¢	$230	0x74ab5b…
10-06 15:14:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	23¢	$138	0xc7e72b…
10-06 15:01:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	0¢	$6	0x46b2c2…
10-04 06:18:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	0¢	$6	0x4d5cef…
09-14 09:26:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	75	21¢	$16	0x43af39…
09-14 05:14:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0x067f4f…
09-14 05:12:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0x1d5327…
09-14 05:12:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0x01a8d8…
09-14 05:11:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	467	21¢	$98	0x8e00ec…
09-14 05:10:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0xcfe9e8…
09-14 05:10:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0xb0d63d…
09-14 03:41:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,552	20¢	$310	0x7814d6…
09-14 03:40:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,925	20¢	$385	0x53efc5…
09-14 02:43:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	20¢	$240	0xbfb7f6…
09-14 02:39:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	20¢	$240	0x0739a2…
09-14 02:37:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	20¢	$240	0xdb4db7…
09-14 01:42:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,424	21¢	$299	0x0191bb…
09-14 01:41:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0x3227e1…
09-14 01:40:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0x53a9b1…
09-14 01:39:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0xbb4378…
09-14 01:32:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,525	1¢	$60	0x12b044…
09-14 01:31:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$70	0x8dfd42…
09-14 01:31:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$70	0xc7a7d8…
09-14 01:30:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$70	0xdf3880…
09-14 01:28:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0x885422…
09-14 01:27:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0x65a878…
09-13 02:01:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	21¢	$252	0xe22920…
09-13 02:00:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	21¢	$262	0x056986…
09-13 01:59:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x6278fb…
09-12 08:05:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x213f5a…