New-Stuff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

25.7%

Resolved

Trades

516

lifetime

Volume

$7.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-27

last 06-11 14:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

82% 0% $-1

Crypto

18% 33% $-10

Other

1% 0% $-6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes		+68	$5	3¢	$2	$-3	06-11 14:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	35	$3.7K	5,401	5,401	+0	open	—	02-28 19:33
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	11	$1.5K	1,154	1,154	+0	open	—	02-28 08:02
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	2	$239	141	141	+0	open	—	02-28 08:01
will the us next strike iran on march 3 2026 et	3	$148	19,774	0	+19,774	open	—	02-28 07:10
btc updown 15m 1770666300	7	$111	103	102	+1	open	—	02-09 19:56
btc updown 15m 1770670800	4	$89	101	49	+53	open	—	02-09 21:11
btc updown 15m 1770672600	2	$75	44	44	+0	open	—	02-09 21:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	7	$55	37	37	+0	open	—	05-17 21:09
btc updown 5m 1773447600	3	$50	36	35	+1	open	—	03-14 00:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	4	$50	35	35	+0	open	—	05-15 23:36
btc updown 5m 1773447900	4	$43	43	42	+0	open	—	03-14 00:30
btc updown 15m 1770411600	5	$42	32	32	+0	open	—	02-06 21:15
btc updown 5m 1772047500	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	02-25 19:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	5	$40	24	24	+0	open	—	05-15 19:49
btc updown 15m 1770673500	2	$40	91	0	+91	open	—	02-09 21:41
btc updown 15m 1770669900	2	$35	63	0	+63	open	—	02-09 20:49
will the us next strike iran on march 2 2026 et	4	$33	2,081	0	+2,081	open	—	02-28 07:09
us strikes iran by january 28 2026 117 856 648 735 438	5	$33	1,006	0	+1,006	open	—	01-27 23:39
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$32	271	0	+271	open	—	01-29 16:52
btc updown 15m 1770671700	7	$32	60	0	+60	open	—	02-09 21:23
btc updown 5m 1772203800	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	02-27 14:55
will the us next strike iran on march 5 2026 et	1	$30	4,594	0	+4,594	open	—	02-28 07:17
will the us next strike iran on march 1 2026 et	3	$30	934	0	+934	open	—	02-28 07:08
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$29	350	0	+350	open	—	01-29 16:36
btc updown 15m 1770410700	8	$28	75	0	+75	open	—	02-06 20:57
btc updown 5m 1772265600	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	02-28 08:01
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	4	$26	562	0	+562	open	—	01-29 16:34
btc updown 15m 1770641100	5	$25	28	28	+0	open	—	02-09 12:59
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	9	$25	242	242	+0	open	—	02-27 21:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$23	32	32	+0	open	—	02-06 22:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 14:25:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0x93c7b7…
05-17 21:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xef110c…
05-17 21:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x819b95…
05-17 21:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	35	92¢	$32	0xdfa30d…
05-17 21:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	81¢	$5	0x5e4a23…
05-17 21:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xd60bda…
05-17 21:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xfd86bd…
05-17 21:07:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7e3d53…
05-17 21:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xab18d7…
05-17 21:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf95b73…
05-17 21:04:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xe8d67a…
05-17 21:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe9111a…
05-17 19:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xbccd08…
05-17 19:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3d34bd…
05-17 19:51:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xad0b05…
05-17 19:51:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xad9819…
05-15 23:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x61a456…
05-15 23:31:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x0f0ef7…
05-15 23:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x9821d9…
05-15 23:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x0cc390…
05-15 23:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x4b5d32…
05-15 23:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x565c21…
05-15 23:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x6f8ad2…
05-15 23:26:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x223780…
05-15 23:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xadb39d…
05-15 23:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x65304c…
05-15 19:49:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x37366a…
05-15 19:47:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x88312a…
05-15 19:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x899457…
05-15 19:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x01c1c3…
05-15 19:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xf31447…
05-04 22:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0xa9ea26…
05-04 22:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf5ed59…
05-04 22:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x2e5092…
05-04 22:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc85b5d…
05-04 22:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x02be25…
05-04 22:22:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xaca27c…
05-04 22:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4363bc…
05-04 22:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8d402d…
05-04 22:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x060052…
05-04 22:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0ca07a…
05-04 22:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xa8eb22…
05-04 22:17:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x41e597…
05-04 22:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb5c21e…
05-04 22:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xbbb766…
05-04 22:15:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x78ddaa…
05-04 22:14:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x2575cf…
05-04 22:11:32	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xccafbd…
05-04 22:10:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x0bcf61…
03-19 07:17:07	btc updown 5m 1773904500	Up	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0xaf2a59…
03-19 07:16:29	btc updown 5m 1773904500	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xa0f3b9…
03-19 04:13:35	btc updown 5m 1773893400	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x7b28fa…
03-19 04:13:07	btc updown 5m 1773893400	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf56523…
03-19 04:12:15	btc updown 5m 1773893400	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5bdca6…
03-19 04:12:03	btc updown 5m 1773893400	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x88c990…
03-19 04:10:55	btc updown 5m 1773893400	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x14fa72…
03-19 04:10:41	btc updown 5m 1773893400	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xc74999…
03-19 04:10:21	btc updown 5m 1773893400	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xc459f8…
03-19 04:08:53	btc updown 5m 1773893100	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xee05ab…
03-19 04:07:33	btc updown 5m 1773893100	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcd3860…
03-14 00:32:47	btc updown 5m 1773448200	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xb7b097…
03-14 00:32:09	btc updown 5m 1773448200	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x779276…
03-14 00:30:53	btc updown 5m 1773448200	Down	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0x33d3a0…
03-14 00:30:33	btc updown 5m 1773448200	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xcc6eb8…
03-14 00:30:03	btc updown 5m 1773447900	Up	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x4e456d…
03-14 00:27:19	btc updown 5m 1773447900	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x218440…
03-14 00:26:53	btc updown 5m 1773447900	Up	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0x06b32a…
03-14 00:26:11	btc updown 5m 1773447900	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xd732b4…
03-14 00:25:09	btc updown 5m 1773447600	Down	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x9c1cef…
03-14 00:22:11	btc updown 5m 1773447600	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x2a3284…
03-14 00:21:27	btc updown 5m 1773447600	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x59430b…
03-14 00:21:03	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xfc2bd9…
03-14 00:17:45	btc updown 5m 1773447300	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x6f2a97…
03-14 00:16:25	btc updown 5m 1773447300	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x4c9579…
03-14 00:15:55	btc updown 5m 1773447300	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x008d2b…
03-14 00:15:25	btc updown 5m 1773447300	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8bdcac…
03-09 00:06:37	btc updown 5m 1773014700	Down	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x8ccca8…
03-09 00:05:49	btc updown 5m 1773014700	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x276753…
03-09 00:03:41	btc updown 5m 1773014400	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xdfc437…
02-28 19:33:03	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	721	8¢	$55	0x8401e7…
02-28 19:32:55	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	2,054	7¢	$146	0x4963d5…
02-28 18:18:03	btc updown 5m 1772302500	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb77187…
02-28 17:59:53	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xdb189c…
02-28 16:16:23	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	1,127	54¢	$606	0x78bf36…
02-28 16:14:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	194	52¢	$100	0x6cf721…
02-28 16:14:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	203	49¢	$100	0x0dc2b1…
02-28 16:14:01	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	202	49¢	$100	0x4350fc…
02-28 16:10:07	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	202	49¢	$100	0xed2e13…
02-28 16:08:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	171	58¢	$100	0xaa8844…
02-28 16:07:41	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0xce9b35…
02-28 16:07:17	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0xb99ff1…
02-28 16:07:09	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	168	59¢	$100	0x98aa10…
02-28 16:07:03	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	168	59¢	$100	0x9c9b6e…
02-28 15:59:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	73	40¢	$29	0xeba0b2…
02-28 15:58:27	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	73	41¢	$29	0x366292…
02-28 15:58:09	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	48	40¢	$19	0x23e7de…
02-28 15:57:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	64	40¢	$26	0x8b0b81…
02-28 15:57:41	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	86	40¢	$34	0x7aa1e0…
02-28 15:57:33	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	115	40¢	$46	0x68f73d…
02-28 15:56:29	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	153	41¢	$63	0x47a109…