Bitter-Fen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$139

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

46.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

$31

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 09-16 14:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

62% 50% +$7

Crypto

25% 30% -$33

Politics

12% 0% -$113

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+1,096	$40	3¢	$31	-$9	08-20 20:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	6	$297	256	256	+0	No	-$6	03-31 13:55
over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	2	$241	141	141	+0	No	+$41	01-10 17:17
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$109	80	80	+0	No	+$51	06-01 18:40
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$100	357	0	+357	Yes	-$100	09-16 14:12
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$63	36	36	+0	Yes	+$10	04-12 19:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:45 UTC	2	$49	27	27	+0	Down	+$4	03-31 16:50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$40	1,096	0	+1,096	open	—	08-20 20:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$33	105	105	+0	No	-$7	03-26 20:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:45 UTC	2	$32	22	22	+0	Up	+$12	03-19 22:50
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$31	638	638	+0	No	-$29	03-31 13:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:00 UTC	1	$30	58	0	+58	Down	-$30	03-18 14:01
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	2	$23	2,500	2,500	+0	Yes	+$13	03-23 22:38
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$20	1,794	0	+1,794	No	-$20	08-31 19:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:45 UTC	1	$20	71	0	+71	Up	-$20	03-25 22:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 12:00 UTC	1	$20	47	0	+47	Down	-$20	03-18 12:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:40 UTC	1	$10	18	0	+18	Up	-$10	03-25 22:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 11:40 UTC	1	$10	171	0	+171	Up	-$10	03-18 11:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:40 UTC	1	$5	500	0	+500	Up	-$5	03-19 22:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:35 UTC	1	$5	42	0	+42	Up	-$5	03-25 22:38
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$2	182	0	+182	Yes	-$2	05-11 14:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$1	05-09 18:55
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?	1	$1	200	0	+200	No	-$1	05-11 14:51
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	1	$1	67	0	+67	No	-$1	05-11 14:51
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	1	$1	33	0	+33	No	-$1	05-11 14:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 14:12:43	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0xa72ccd…
08-31 19:54:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,794	1¢	$20	0xd703e7…
08-20 20:31:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	270	4¢	$10	0xfa11b2…
08-20 20:31:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	826	4¢	$30	0x8ece0c…
06-01 18:40:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x12a45a…
06-01 13:00:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	36¢	$29	0xf4b7b0…
05-11 14:51:46	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xffb18b…
05-11 14:51:36	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x4675c4…
05-11 14:51:25	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xe2a63d…
05-11 14:46:36	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0x05e76b…
05-09 18:55:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc5ee8b…
04-12 19:32:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x7ff628…
04-11 11:28:35	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	36	73¢	$27	0xded9dc…
03-31 16:50:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xd5e87d…
03-31 16:46:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	27	84¢	$23	0xa1a3a1…
03-31 13:55:13	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	63	2¢	$1	0x6ba3df…
03-31 13:54:23	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x46d07a…
03-31 13:52:49	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	SELL	638	0¢	$1	0x1a1fbe…
03-30 20:24:05	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0xb8fbe3…
03-30 20:16:31	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0x92bca3…
03-26 20:32:23	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	105	12¢	$13	0xa1fc86…
03-25 22:48:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x587ec9…
03-25 22:40:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x45738d…
03-25 22:38:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x77281c…
03-23 22:38:41	will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	No	SELL	2,500	1¢	$18	0x9d8ff5…
03-23 22:27:11	will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xa0a7e3…
03-22 19:14:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x20c0e5…
03-19 22:50:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:45 UTC	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x4f6cc6…
03-19 22:49:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x5d0183…
03-19 22:44:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6621dd…
03-18 14:01:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0xde0cb6…
03-18 12:00:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x3a6a8e…
03-18 11:42:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	171	6¢	$10	0xe92d12…
03-16 21:24:11	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	638	5¢	$30	0x479729…
03-08 22:34:59	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	163	88¢	$144	0xdd5c45…
03-08 22:08:49	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	163	87¢	$142	0x362933…
01-10 17:17:20	over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	No	SELL	141	100¢	$141	0x6ee619…
01-10 13:34:54	over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x7016af…