Blaring-Tail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$584

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

59.1%

Resolved

359

Trades

1,652

lifetime

Volume

$17.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$119

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-02 08:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Other

51% 22% +$220

Crypto

41% 31% -$8

Tech

4% 43% +$465

Politics

2% 8% -$149

Sports

2% 8% +$58

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-60	-$55	86¢	$-51	+$4	09-22 13:38
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	-56	-$36	60¢	$-34	+$3	10-17 23:45
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+200	$30	10¢	$19	-$11	06-19 08:10
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+110	$9	9¢	$10	+$1	11-02 08:36
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+100	$10	4¢	$4	-$6	06-28 00:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will usdai launch a token by march 31	37	$932	1,675	1,775	-100	No	+$548	03-26 22:32
Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?	12	$538	477	477	+0	No	+$223	01-26 21:46
Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?	18	$537	2,218	1,948	+269	No	+$469	03-25 00:16
Elsa FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$460	346	346	+0	Yes	+$74	01-20 09:24
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	3	$442	850	850	+0	Yes	-$51	03-31 06:06
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?	6	$396	1,300	1,100	+200	No	-$190	01-15 20:12
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?	3	$355	500	500	+0	Yes	+$35	01-28 12:49
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch?	7	$328	500	500	+0	Yes	+$28	01-06 14:16
will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	2	$326	500	500	+0	Yes	-$30	06-22 09:44
over 70m committed to the ranger public sale rwrn 523	5	$313	350	350	+0	Yes	+$231	01-10 15:54
andrew tate of tweets march 3 march 10 2026 0 99	11	$303	348	348	+0	No	+$42	03-06 16:26
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	12	$300	1,179	1,329	-150	Yes	-$179	03-20 09:14
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	11	$284	850	500	+350	Yes	+$163	03-24 07:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$284	200	200	+0	No	+$76	05-22 08:27
over 60m committed to the ranger public sale 296 929 632	2	$280	200	200	+0	Yes	+$120	01-10 15:54
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?	4	$260	240	240	+0	No	+$133	02-01 14:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-23 04:15 UTC	3	$256	242	192	+51	Down	+$26	08-23 04:19
footballfun fdv above 100m one day after launch im46	4	$234	200	200	+0	Yes	+$42	01-16 06:37
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants	4	$225	200	200	+0	Chennai Super Kings	+$75	05-10 12:39
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by March 31, 2026?	9	$218	1,891	125	+1,766	Yes	+$2	02-23 08:21
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?	7	$201	190	190	+0	No	-$1	01-29 05:16
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-24 16:00 UTC	2	$195	243	0	+243	Down	+$48	08-24 19:40
gpt 5pt4 released by march 9	3	$192	108	108	+0	Yes	+$25	03-05 18:11
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$189	201	131	+70	Yes	+$27	02-26 17:25
Over $5M committed to the Fabric public sale?	5	$169	150	150	+0	No	-$87	01-30 10:07
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?	5	$164	200	200	+0	No	+$56	01-23 18:20
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?	5	$160	113	113	+0	Yes	+$44	01-13 18:56
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?	2	$158	100	100	+0	Yes	+$40	01-06 08:35
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$156	150	159	-9	No	+$6	01-09 17:45
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$151	198	198	+0	No	-$32	03-26 19:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 08:36:12	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	8¢	$6	0xe42008…
11-02 07:17:06	Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xd9ff85…
11-02 02:28:22	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x308065…
10-17 23:45:42	Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	65¢	$33	0xbd703a…
10-17 21:45:17	Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x088cf3…
10-07 02:04:36	Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x3070b9…
09-22 13:38:34	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	92¢	$55	0x2b29f7…
08-24 19:40:48	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-24 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	140	86¢	$120	0x5cc910…
08-24 19:37:06	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-24 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	103	73¢	$75	0x28a881…
08-24 19:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	111	65¢	$72	0x70c90a…
08-24 19:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	97	74¢	$72	0xc5b510…
08-24 04:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	62	61¢	$38	0x9d7e0f…
08-24 04:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	98	63¢	$62	0x864ff1…
08-24 04:04:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	63	67¢	$42	0xab8ebe…
08-23 15:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x698538…
08-23 15:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x193d52…
08-23 15:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0x3e6395…
08-23 15:27:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xa53c9d…
08-23 15:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xa1c814…
08-23 04:31:46	bitcoin up or down august 23 2026 12am et	Up	SELL	122	48¢	$59	0x45f0f2…
08-23 04:31:33	bitcoin up or down august 23 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	122	49¢	$60	0x649a13…
08-23 04:19:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-23 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0xdb7814…
08-23 04:17:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-23 04:15 UTC	Down	SELL	192	60¢	$116	0x6b32d2…
08-23 04:17:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-23 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x59fb82…
08-22 21:46:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x734506…
08-21 19:31:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb7bddd…
08-21 19:15:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xc6dae8…
07-17 16:47:13	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$7	0xce2f00…
07-17 16:46:40	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	120	13¢	$16	0xd586f1…
07-17 16:36:07	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	27	22¢	$6	0xcbd2a8…
07-17 16:35:18	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	73	22¢	$16	0xe3ea09…
07-17 16:28:49	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	BUY	180	4¢	$7	0x62b261…
07-17 13:21:55	over 45m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325655	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x0356fb…
07-17 11:28:42	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	110	6¢	$7	0x0fc359…
07-17 11:28:27	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x9edff9…
07-17 11:28:09	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x121a98…
07-17 11:25:49	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x78d4b7…
07-16 20:10:17	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9e8f1e…
07-16 08:04:07	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	BUY	102	26¢	$27	0xf5a7bc…
07-15 15:52:53	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	BUY	178	19¢	$34	0x7dae68…
07-15 13:25:38	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x1271f1…
07-15 13:02:25	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x783123…
07-13 18:06:56	over 60m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325657	Yes	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0x9fd803…
07-13 18:06:20	over 80m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325659	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xd201cb…
07-11 17:59:01	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xe0274b…
07-10 18:55:14	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xe538ff…
07-10 18:54:44	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0xf695db…
07-10 18:53:13	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x5bce99…
07-03 18:22:40	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	3¢	$5	0x0fd2b5…
07-01 06:10:49	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x4ffe7d…
06-29 19:10:25	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x7e2568…
06-29 15:21:28	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x9f414a…
06-29 15:08:13	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x18ebf5…
06-29 10:25:40	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2e0e1d…
06-29 06:08:02	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x576331…
06-29 05:19:44	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x3753a8…
06-29 02:32:13	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x724ee4…
06-29 01:07:20	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xb6296f…
06-28 23:14:35	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xdcbde8…
06-28 20:23:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	0¢	$1	0x949db4…
06-28 20:23:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x61c203…
06-28 20:23:25	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	0¢	$0	0x9531d0…
06-28 20:23:25	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x4d04f9…
06-28 20:22:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	0¢	$1	0x9676fe…
06-28 20:22:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x58471b…
06-28 20:21:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	439	0¢	$1	0xda72f3…
06-28 20:21:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x6ea79c…
06-28 19:13:43	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	0¢	$0	0x69703d…
06-28 19:01:04	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0x2d9533…
06-28 07:48:40	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	557	0¢	$1	0x282fd5…
06-28 00:22:23	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$2	0x67aa3c…
06-28 00:19:47	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	150	4¢	$5	0x2c52f3…
06-28 00:17:07	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7d7661…
06-22 11:30:28	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0x3e428e…
06-22 09:44:16	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	500	30¢	$148	0x404930…
06-21 19:55:32	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xff86eb…
06-21 19:55:32	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x39f40d…
06-21 19:55:31	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x28dd65…
06-21 19:55:31	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x14dc91…
06-21 19:55:31	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x11a8d9…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xdc5d26…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb77aa2…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb20657…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x97421d…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x76a12e…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6a0e47…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x67dfad…
06-21 19:55:29	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x62da8f…
06-21 19:55:28	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xaa7305…
06-21 19:55:28	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x62c968…
06-21 19:55:28	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x54a670…
06-21 19:55:28	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	41	1¢	$1	0x264d9e…
06-21 19:55:26	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xed53c7…
06-21 19:55:26	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xcc41cf…
06-21 19:55:25	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xaac822…
06-21 19:55:25	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x02cfb7…
06-21 19:55:23	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xbdbbe0…
06-21 19:55:23	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8c5cd5…
06-21 19:55:22	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe22b74…
06-21 19:55:22	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xaf5c8d…