Overjoyed-Lay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$584

Unrealized P&L

+$24

Hit rate

65.0%

Resolved

195

Trades

363

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

$149

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 10-05 11:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 91 days

Categories

Other

61% 59% +$42

Politics

29% 30% -$732

Sports

7% 41% +$186

Crypto

2% 40% -$106

Tech

1% 100% +$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+104	$55	64¢	$66	+$11	05-03 16:00
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+167	$20	22¢	$37	+$18	07-24 08:28
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+182	$20	14¢	$25	+$5	07-24 08:28
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+691	$20	2¢	$16	-$4	08-03 22:53
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+26	$10	17¢	$4	-$6	05-28 11:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	4	$1.5K	835	835	+0	No	+$47	07-29 12:55
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	6	$584	375	375	+0	open	—	09-26 00:43
will france strike iran by march 31	2	$485	292	292	+0	No	-$7	03-02 12:32
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	3	$485	265	265	+0	No	+$17	02-20 22:22
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	4	$437	451	225	+225	Yes	-$143	07-29 23:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$425	559	559	+0	Yes	-$25	02-28 21:13
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	6	$407	219	219	+0	open	—	06-15 19:09
will trump visit china by march 31	3	$327	432	432	+0	No	-$275	03-16 21:56
ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 ars	4	$321	210	210	+0	Yes	+$21	03-17 23:39
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	3	$283	320	0	+320	No	-$283	05-22 15:28
ucl ben rma 2026 02 17 ben	1	$280	400	0	+400	No	+$120	02-17 18:28
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	2	$280	204	204	+0	open	—	08-30 16:13
epl bri ars 2026 03 04 bri	2	$278	152	152	+0	No	+$26	03-04 22:10
Fed rate hike in 2026?	3	$268	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	08-28 14:29
sea cre mil 2026 03 01 mil	3	$263	156	156	+0	Yes	+$49	03-01 15:18
lal rea elc 2026 03 14 rea	2	$235	135	135	+0	Yes	+$35	03-14 22:02
epl wol ars 2026 02 18 ars	2	$229	260	260	+0	No	-$171	02-18 21:55
bun bay uni 2026 03 21 bay	2	$223	124	124	+0	Yes	+$23	03-21 16:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$204	222	222	+0	Yes	+$4	05-06 22:16
atp ruiz nardi 2026 10 05	1	$200	328	0	+328	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	+$128	10-05 11:26
ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 spo1	2	$171	102	102	+0	No	+$31	03-11 21:38
fl1 rcl met 2026 03 08 rcl	2	$162	105	105	+0	Yes	+$0	03-08 10:12
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	2	$155	118	118	+0	No	+$52	03-14 10:27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	1	$150	238	0	+238	Yes	-$150	02-19 19:22
wta tararud kartal 2026 03 05	2	$138	83	83	+0	Sonay Kartal	+$28	03-05 21:05
sea nap lec 2026 03 14 nap	2	$121	71	71	+0	Yes	+$21	03-14 18:55
bun bay moe 2026 03 06 bay	2	$111	61	61	+0	Yes	+$11	03-06 21:43
lal rea get 2026 03 02 rea	2	$110	124	124	+0	No	-$68	03-02 21:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$110	164	0	+164	Yes	-$110	05-09 16:59
bun hei stu 2026 02 22 hei	2	$108	60	60	+0	No	+$12	02-22 20:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 11:26:14	atp ruiz nardi 2026 10 05	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	328	61¢	$200	0x0d861c…
10-05 07:20:05	atp shevche nishiok 2026 10 05	Alexander Shevchenko	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x684358…
10-03 11:12:57	Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-10-03?	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x430a22…
09-26 11:51:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0xc4c298…
09-26 00:43:47	Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	106	73¢	$78	0x60b94b…
09-26 00:43:39	Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	137	73¢	$100	0xe03b8e…
09-26 00:43:36	Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	117	73¢	$86	0xc8cf9c…
09-26 00:43:27	Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$11	0x88c3ae…
09-14 21:33:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x7e71d7…
09-10 18:07:13	OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?	OpenAI	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xcf2da9…
08-31 22:50:24	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x94ab60…
08-31 22:36:09	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0xb3480d…
08-31 22:08:09	will manchester city finish in the top 4 of the 2026 27 english premier league season	Yes	BUY	125	82¢	$102	0xf105e6…
08-31 22:07:30	will manchester city finish in the top 4 of the 2026 27 english premier league season	Yes	BUY	250	83¢	$208	0x123edb…
08-31 21:45:42	will barcelona be relegated from laliga 2026 27	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x8fd561…
08-31 21:45:09	will real sociedad be relegated from laliga 2026 27	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xc182dc…
08-31 21:44:28	will athletic bilbao be relegated from laliga 2026 27	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x0ea8b4…
08-31 21:43:24	will elche finish in the top 2 of the 2026 27 laliga season	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0xa5da67…
08-30 16:13:01	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	204	88¢	$180	0xe2da09…
08-29 19:42:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xc586a2…
08-28 14:29:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x66c9af…
08-09 10:52:37	atp schwaer guerrie 2026 08 09	Joel Schwaerzler	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0xf1fd4c…
08-07 21:45:21	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	114	14¢	$16	0x514e6b…
08-07 21:42:21	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	BUY	104	54¢	$56	0x5bd0c2…
08-03 22:53:00	Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	388	3¢	$10	0xfc7095…
08-03 01:11:06	Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xe2f044…
07-31 17:29:05	Will Casper Ruud Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xdbd1ec…
07-31 14:06:32	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xb1a1d8…
07-31 10:51:47	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xf6aa9f…
07-31 10:37:17	Will Jannik Sinner Win ATP Montreal	Yes	SELL	90	10¢	$9	0x1fdf9a…
07-31 07:49:48	Will Luciano Darderi Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xb701db…
07-31 07:41:27	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	33	54¢	$18	0xef3694…
07-31 07:39:42	Will Jannik Sinner Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x4d3a15…
07-31 07:31:53	Will Casper Ruud Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xe8446c…
07-31 07:31:53	Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x076237…
07-31 07:31:53	Will Luciano Darderi Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x059493…
07-31 07:31:42	Will Jannik Sinner Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe2132a…
07-31 07:30:20	Will Luciano Darderi Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x2ac0de…
07-31 07:28:29	Will Casper Ruud Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x266f03…
07-31 07:27:17	Will Alexander Zverev Win ATP Montreal	Yes	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0x309dd7…
07-30 20:01:24	atp matsuok wolf 2026 07 30	J.J. Wolf	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0x7a669e…
07-30 20:01:23	atp matsuok wolf 2026 07 30	J.J. Wolf	BUY	18	77¢	$14	0x89864a…
07-30 16:59:44	atp matsuok wolf 2026 07 30	J.J. Wolf	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xf6e955…
07-30 12:34:48	atp matsuok wolf 2026 07 30	J.J. Wolf	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x8d9f9e…
07-30 11:04:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	67¢	$78	0x3aa523…
07-30 09:02:08	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	67¢	$56	0x2a3628…
07-29 23:13:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	225	65¢	$147	0x7eb952…
07-29 12:55:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	114	91¢	$104	0x5ead40…
07-27 22:11:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xf5f1bf…
07-25 10:46:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xc29bfa…
07-25 10:25:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x9feffe…
07-25 03:28:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	227	65¢	$147	0x03eb30…
07-25 03:09:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	173	65¢	$113	0xe5e036…
07-24 08:28:51	Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	303	3¢	$10	0x195ad4…
07-24 08:28:39	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x5e5aec…
07-24 08:28:31	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xcd475d…
07-23 19:20:42	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	81	24¢	$19	0xe1a573…
07-23 14:05:57	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	19	24¢	$5	0xfdeea5…
07-23 13:23:52	atp rehberg matusev 2026 07 24	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0xcb7e0f…
07-23 09:41:10	atp rehberg matusev 2026 07 24	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x4ad7fd…
07-23 09:18:52	Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0x03e9a1…
07-23 09:18:33	Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x191cff…
07-23 09:12:04	atp rehberg matusev 2026 07 24	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	73	63¢	$46	0x925ebf…
07-23 09:10:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	721	96¢	$692	0xd1d974…
07-20 18:42:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	721	90¢	$649	0x33d341…
07-15 20:52:53	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	56	10¢	$5	0x374c02…
07-15 20:51:46	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xbbbec3…
07-15 20:49:50	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	SELL	104	9¢	$10	0x094c89…
07-15 18:45:08	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	104	35¢	$36	0xdbe8d6…
07-14 21:25:17	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x409457…
07-14 21:24:05	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x0685a7…
07-14 21:23:46	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	28¢	$18	0x3a693f…
07-14 21:23:38	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	28¢	$9	0xc2a35e…
07-10 21:19:11	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	51	62¢	$32	0xb72537…
07-10 01:55:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt15 by july 31 20260629184429517	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x85ff1d…
07-09 22:11:34	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	51	61¢	$31	0x1a8cb3…
07-09 14:40:47	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	556	2¢	$13	0x146d61…
07-05 21:44:16	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	27	30¢	$8	0x43d514…
07-05 21:22:31	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Norway	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xcfb664…
07-05 21:15:04	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xf608ee…
07-05 11:02:38	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Yes	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0xa3c3d1…
07-03 22:42:07	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x856243…
07-01 21:21:13	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xf61373…
07-01 21:18:14	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25 by july 31 20260629184429516	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x9a95cb…
07-01 17:03:58	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x79a9c8…
06-30 23:51:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	SELL	88	61¢	$54	0x1b976c…
06-29 14:47:07	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x33e7b9…
06-28 20:11:41	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x235b30…
06-27 22:51:25	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	132	11¢	$15	0xdf4f4b…
06-27 22:50:59	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	88	11¢	$10	0x9286da…
06-26 07:31:16	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by june 30	Yes	SELL	57	0¢	$0	0xadc48e…
06-26 07:31:11	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by june 30	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x47a68f…
06-26 07:30:14	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	56	1¢	$1	0x55675e…
06-24 22:38:10	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xdc1c4b…
06-24 22:38:08	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xa7cfac…
06-24 22:38:07	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0xfd54ed…
06-24 22:38:07	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x33615c…
06-24 22:38:07	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0x213752…
06-24 22:33:26	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0xd52afe…
06-21 22:25:14	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xeba9e7…