Optimal-Divorce — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.87K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-17 12:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Crypto

44% 100% +$4

Other

44% 83% -$6

Politics

8% 86% -$1

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	02-03 09:09
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	01-31 06:30
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	01-26 11:01
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 21 2026	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	01-22 02:53
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 220 239	1	$104	104	0	+104	No	+$0	01-17 09:29
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 100 119	1	$104	104	0	+104	No	+$0	02-11 07:39
bitcoin above 88k on january 8	1	$102	105	0	+105	Yes	+$3	01-08 11:03
ethereum above 2000 on june 5 2026	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	06-05 03:52
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 160 179	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	03-13 07:21
bitcoin above 60k on march 7	1	$99	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	03-07 07:39
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	1	$99	99	0	+99	No	+$0	05-30 10:26
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	1	$99	99	0	+99	No	+$0	04-06 07:59
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	1	$99	99	0	+99	No	+$0	02-15 06:05
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	1	$98	98	0	+98	No	+$0	05-25 06:14
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$98	98	0	+98	No	+$0	05-17 06:29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	1	$98	98	0	+98	No	+$0	05-28 06:28
bitcoin above 76k on april 10	1	$98	98	0	+98	No	+$0	04-10 07:45
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	1	$97	97	0	+97	Yes	+$0	03-31 08:42
bitcoin above 74k on march 27	1	$97	97	0	+97	No	+$0	03-27 06:19
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	1	$97	97	0	+97	No	+$0	04-23 03:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10?	1	$96	96	0	+96	Yes	+$0	05-10 02:16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15?	1	$96	96	0	+96	Yes	+$0	05-14 09:14
bitcoin above 62k on april 13	1	$96	96	0	+96	Yes	+$0	04-12 06:34
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$96	96	0	+96	No	+$0	05-05 06:26
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 17	1	$95	95	0	+95	No	+$0	03-17 03:14
bitcoin above 80k on april 17	1	$95	95	0	+95	No	+$0	04-17 06:24
bitcoin above 78k on march 24	1	$93	93	0	+93	No	+$0	03-23 03:19
will ethereum dip to 1000 june 8 14 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	06-10 03:23
ethereum above 1300 on june 11 2026	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	06-10 03:39
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$28	14	14	+0	No	+$0	09-20 14:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 12:23:57	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0x9fabd0…
10-17 12:19:27	Georgia State vs. James Madison	James Madison	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x40ec6d…
09-20 14:18:19	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x149daa…
09-20 14:14:27	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x26922e…
09-20 14:09:54	Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x593efe…
08-04 10:11:38	Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd6d68d…
07-24 07:31:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xce7751…
06-14 02:47:25	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc54e03…
06-14 02:47:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2dc415…
06-14 02:44:10	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x84831d…
06-14 02:44:01	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4ff340…
06-14 02:43:55	Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8ee99d…
06-14 02:43:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xecda55…
06-10 03:39:37	ethereum above 1300 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xc73e9e…
06-10 03:28:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x3b8d64…
06-10 03:23:51	Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	191	1¢	$1	0x94c034…
06-10 03:23:25	will ethereum dip to 1000 june 8 14 2026	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xe483d8…
06-05 03:52:10	ethereum above 2000 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x3de1ad…
05-30 10:26:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x5e4579…
05-28 06:28:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xf08375…
05-25 06:14:42	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x408f07…
05-17 06:29:56	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x85ee85…
05-14 09:14:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x6d060a…
05-10 02:16:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xcd0bc4…
05-05 06:26:10	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xa5d454…
05-05 06:25:56	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5d0297…
05-05 06:25:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc6df0…
05-05 06:25:12	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8fe401…
04-23 03:35:34	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x1c7133…
04-17 06:24:58	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x8fdef1…
04-17 06:24:44	donald trump of truth social posts april 10 april 17 180 199	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x623415…
04-17 06:24:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf989e1…
04-12 06:34:15	bitcoin above 62k on april 13	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xf4f3fc…
04-12 06:34:05	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 76000 on april 12	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x63a3ca…
04-12 06:33:53	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1c8166…
04-12 06:33:41	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa907cc…
04-10 07:45:11	bitcoin above 76k on april 10	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xfe9eef…
04-06 07:59:21	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x19b480…
03-31 08:42:01	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x2fb6c9…
03-27 06:19:35	bitcoin above 74k on march 27	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x1e93f8…
03-23 03:19:31	bitcoin above 78k on march 24	No	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0xb65dbc…
03-23 03:18:41	will alibaba have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd0485b…
03-23 03:17:59	will zai have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8933f9…
03-17 03:14:29	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 17	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x745585…
03-13 07:21:51	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 160 179	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x89b67d…
03-07 07:39:01	bitcoin above 60k on march 7	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x8373f0…
02-15 06:05:49	us strikes iran by february 15 2026	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xc06686…
02-15 05:54:19	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 580plus	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x8752c4…
02-15 05:54:11	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 540 559	Yes	BUY	1,580	0¢	$2	0x8b7166…
02-15 05:53:53	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 500 519	Yes	BUY	2,090	0¢	$2	0xb2c6a6…
02-11 07:39:17	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 100 119	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x74d865…
02-11 07:38:57	will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	Yes	BUY	910	0¢	$2	0x8626ca…
02-03 09:09:54	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x014dd0…
01-31 06:30:22	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x90c43c…
01-26 11:01:53	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x6127b0…
01-22 02:53:28	will grok 4pt20 be released on january 21 2026	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xfb745f…
01-17 09:29:14	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 220 239	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x6c9477…
01-08 11:03:01	bitcoin above 88k on january 8	Yes	BUY	105	97¢	$102	0x70dbf0…