Realized P&L (90d)
+$23
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
57.5%
Resolved (90d)
69
Trades (90d)
237
10,376 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.24K
$41.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$99
25 positions
First seen
2026-04-11
last 10-31 23:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 68 days
Categories
Crypto
97% 53% -$1,299
Other
2% 51% +$31
Politics
1% 50% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +100 $15 12¢ $12 -$4 10-06 14:33
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes +111 $10 8¢ $8 -$2 10-22 07:13
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +83 $5 10¢ $8 +$3 10-31 03:41
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes +125 $5 6¢ $7 +$2 10-24 17:37
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? Yes +90 $10 8¢ $7 -$3 10-13 05:53
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +6 $5 100¢ $6 +$1 10-23 03:33
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 84¢ $5 +$0 10-20 04:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857 No +9 $2 56¢ $5 +$4 10-15 07:18
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +6 $4 84¢ $5 +$1 10-09 14:02
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +55 $5 9¢ $5 +$0 10-26 03:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +13 $5 38¢ $5 +$0 10-30 04:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 $0 10-10 02:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +10 $5 47¢ $5 $0 10-29 03:59
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +13 $4 36¢ $5 +$1 10-30 16:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 88¢ $4 +$0 10-13 03:57
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 86¢ $4 $0 10-16 03:44
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 -$2 82¢ $1 +$3 10-24 03:43
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1 $1 86¢ $1 +$0 10-06 14:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +1 -$5 100¢ $1 +$6 10-16 03:31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1 $0 91¢ $1 +$0 10-17 23:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Yes +166 $10 0¢ $0 -$9 10-14 03:21
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? Yes +1 $0 13¢ $0 $0 10-11 14:46
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +1 -$2 15¢ $0 +$2 10-21 03:54
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? Yes +100 $3 0¢ $0 -$2 10-20 03:35
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +1 $0 15¢ $0 $0 10-08 11:30