Realized P&L (90d)
+$2
Unrealized P&L
-$1
Hit rate
57.7%
Resolved (90d)
58
Trades (90d)
211
10,350 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.10K
$40.9K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$96
25 positions
First seen
2026-04-11
last 10-31 03:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 68 days
Categories
Crypto
97% 53% -$1,299
Other
2% 51% +$9
Politics
1% 50% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +100 $15 12¢ $12 -$4 10-06 14:33
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes +111 $10 9¢ $10 +$0 10-22 07:13
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes +125 $5 6¢ $7 +$2 10-24 17:37
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +6 $5 100¢ $6 +$1 10-23 03:33
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? Yes +90 $10 6¢ $6 -$4 10-13 05:53
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +6 $4 84¢ $5 +$1 10-09 14:02
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 84¢ $5 +$0 10-20 04:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857 No +9 $2 56¢ $5 +$3 10-15 07:18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +10 $5 49¢ $5 +$0 10-29 03:59
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +13 $5 37¢ $5 +$0 10-30 04:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 $0 10-10 02:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +83 $5 6¢ $5 $0 10-31 03:41
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +13 $4 35¢ $5 +$1 10-30 16:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 86¢ $4 $0 10-13 03:57
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 86¢ $4 $0 10-16 03:44
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +55 $5 8¢ $4 -$1 10-26 03:54
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 -$2 82¢ $1 +$3 10-24 03:43
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +1 $1 86¢ $1 +$0 10-06 14:15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1 $0 93¢ $1 +$0 10-17 23:25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +1 -$5 97¢ $1 +$6 10-16 03:31
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? Yes +100 $3 0¢ $1 -$2 10-20 03:35
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Yes +166 $10 0¢ $0 -$10 10-14 03:21
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? Yes +1 $0 13¢ $0 $0 10-11 14:46
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +1 -$2 15¢ $0 +$2 10-21 03:54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +1 $0 14¢ $0 $0 10-08 11:30