Austere-Ingredient — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

86.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,446

lifetime

Volume

$8.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-02-15

last 06-09 23:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

66% 76% +$7

Politics

17% 100% +$3

Crypto

13% — —

Sports

4% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No		-20	$-17	94¢	$-19	$-1	06-02 15:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	21	$161	180	110	+70	open	—	02-28 20:54
bitcoin up or down february 19 1pm et	6	$93	103	103	+0	open	—	02-19 18:51
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	14	$84	80	80	+0	open	—	03-23 21:36
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	4	$79	41	41	+0	open	—	02-21 02:10
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$69	44	44	+0	open	—	02-21 02:09
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5	8	$61	35	35	+0	open	—	05-19 20:40
iran strike on israel by march 31	5	$58	30	30	+0	open	—	02-28 15:12
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	6	$58	40	40	+0	open	—	06-08 20:31
bitcoin up or down february 24 10am et	18	$57	42	42	+0	open	—	02-24 15:29
bitcoin up or down february 25 1pm et	21	$56	70	70	+0	open	—	02-25 18:23
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	8	$54	35	35	+0	open	—	05-19 20:12
will iran strike israel on march 6	7	$51	40	33	+7	open	—	03-08 21:51
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 9 2026	2	$49	25	25	+0	open	—	03-08 22:04
bitcoin up or down february 24 12pm et	9	$46	40	40	+0	open	—	02-24 17:43
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$45	30	30	+0	open	—	04-01 12:18
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5	3	$44	24	24	+0	Over	+$3	05-10 22:07
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5	2	$44	25	25	+0	open	—	05-18 19:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$41	40	40	+0	open	—	02-28 16:52
bitcoin up or down february 21 5pm et	6	$41	30	30	+0	open	—	02-21 22:35
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: O/U 1.5	5	$40	30	30	+0	open	—	05-18 20:07
bitcoin up or down february 20 9am et	6	$39	30	30	+0	open	—	02-20 14:42
bitcoin up or down february 22 6pm et	5	$39	30	30	+0	open	—	02-22 23:21
bitcoin up or down february 21 1pm et	5	$38	30	30	+0	open	—	02-21 18:37
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5	4	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	06-08 20:31
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5	3	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	05-18 20:27
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	14	$36	22	22	+0	open	—	03-06 13:25
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5	6	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-17 23:10
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5	3	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-24 14:29
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	2	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-20 20:19
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5	2	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-20 19:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 23:27:57	fif arg isl 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xfa071c…
06-09 20:50:24	Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x220a83…
06-09 20:30:27	es2 alm cas 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8b602b…
06-09 20:23:28	wwcquefa ice spa 2026 06 09 total 5pt5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf06e6e…
06-09 20:20:48	es2 alm cas 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x6f4379…
06-09 20:17:57	es2 alm cas 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd3732d…
06-09 20:15:57	wwcquefa ice spa 2026 06 09 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x7b6a14…
06-09 20:13:21	wwcquefa ice spa 2026 06 09 total 4pt5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x2aac0b…
06-09 19:48:39	wwcquefa ice spa 2026 06 09 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x9e88c1…
06-09 19:06:06	es2 alm cas 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8c918f…
06-09 19:06:06	es2 alm cas 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x4093fd…
06-09 19:04:06	Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xab7f68…
06-09 19:03:58	fif hun kaz 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x870188…
06-09 18:29:46	fif hun kaz 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xab83d7…
06-09 17:23:04	Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0xd1b71c…
06-09 17:23:04	Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xb8d1af…
06-09 17:10:07	fif hun kaz 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x631dd1…
06-09 16:46:25	fif hun kaz 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xc73194…
06-09 16:42:57	fif tjk ind 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xa36613…
06-09 16:30:55	Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x0700c0…
06-09 16:27:13	Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x13dfb0…
06-09 15:09:52	Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xd8ce69…
06-09 14:56:33	fif tjk ind 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xd4ed21…
06-09 13:25:51	fif cam hkg 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x75e169…
06-09 13:25:43	fif phi mya 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb0ae98…
06-09 13:12:34	fif idn moz 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0xf67562…
06-09 13:12:34	fif idn moz 2026 06 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x60f9ad…
06-09 12:03:10	fif cam hkg 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x66e352…
06-09 11:53:45	fif phi mya 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xe76e73…
06-09 09:42:16	fif chn tha 2026 06 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x961b8a…
06-08 23:52:55	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0xd44084…
06-08 23:52:52	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xfbf60a…
06-08 23:34:48	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xd38d1e…
06-08 23:21:49	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xc3b76b…
06-08 23:21:39	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xde9bac…
06-08 23:20:16	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf70ce1…
06-08 23:10:36	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0xe69d8b…
06-08 23:10:09	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x57e5af…
06-08 22:49:30	col1 atn cjf 2026 06 08 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x8f3b4b…
06-08 21:12:55	Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x74df1a…
06-08 20:46:45	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xcb5edb…
06-08 20:44:12	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0x5c05de…
06-08 20:37:00	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0x5b1f65…
06-08 20:33:28	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb98e9a…
06-08 20:31:51	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xe31556…
06-08 20:31:03	Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x538d4d…
06-08 20:23:52	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x1f81d5…
06-08 19:35:06	Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xfb7e0e…
06-08 19:22:39	Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xf9ec5e…
06-08 19:12:34	Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x705475…
06-08 18:56:13	Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x6c8309…
06-08 18:47:28	Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x38080c…
06-08 15:29:30	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x5abf10…
06-08 15:29:28	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x5f2ddc…
06-08 15:08:54	atp cilic shapova 2026 06 08	Marin Cilic	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x4a2147…
06-08 14:29:03	atp cilic shapova 2026 06 08	Denis Shapovalov	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xbe7ebe…
06-08 14:22:15	atp cilic shapova 2026 06 08	Marin Cilic	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x5d3acf…
06-08 14:22:13	atp cilic shapova 2026 06 08	Marin Cilic	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xfae03a…
06-08 14:15:00	atp cilic shapova 2026 06 08	Denis Shapovalov	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x55a840…
06-08 00:23:27	Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9d28ea…
06-07 22:20:03	Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xa64c4c…
06-07 21:50:21	Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x14f9c7…
06-07 21:05:04	Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xeecde5…
06-07 20:59:12	Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x76a585…
06-07 20:54:21	Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x01d2d2…
06-07 20:28:51	Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x93beb3…
06-07 19:05:54	es2 lpm mal 2026 06 07 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x8b9a67…
06-07 18:47:52	Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xa99764…
06-07 15:55:19	Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xd65ab3…
06-07 14:58:09	Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xfde010…
06-06 23:29:55	Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x27d771…
06-06 22:44:01	fif bra egy 2026 06 06 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0xde5c12…
06-06 22:42:24	fif bra egy 2026 06 06 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x3485c9…
06-06 22:20:24	fif bra egy 2026 06 06 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x7c506b…
06-06 22:19:45	fif bra egy 2026 06 06 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x878c64…
06-06 22:14:43	Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x53eea7…
06-06 21:16:40	Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x7b2741…
06-06 21:05:03	fif bra egy 2026 06 06 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x60d334…
06-06 21:00:15	United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7aa20f…
06-06 21:00:03	es2 cas alm 2026 06 06 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5af7b8…
06-06 20:22:28	England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xdbd64f…
06-06 19:29:00	Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x3fa958…
06-06 19:05:31	es2 cas alm 2026 06 06 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xf6f071…
06-06 19:05:24	es2 cas alm 2026 06 06 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0xd60385…
06-06 18:42:30	United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x3598df…
06-06 17:54:39	Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x765f96…
06-06 17:54:22	Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xf20b2b…
06-06 17:54:18	Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x47729f…
06-06 17:14:24	Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xe3af15…
06-06 17:04:24	Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x1c72cf…
06-06 17:03:18	Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x541e47…
06-06 14:37:36	Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb009c4…
06-06 13:51:49	Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x6ef3eb…
06-06 13:04:24	Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x7a74cd…
06-05 22:57:42	Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xb365da…
06-05 18:29:30	Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe17dc7…
06-05 17:48:12	Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xa586d1…
06-05 17:37:34	Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc17e90…
06-05 16:03:16	Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xf5a52e…
06-05 13:39:21	fif hkg mng 2026 06 05 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xdabf5e…