Late-Weather — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$336

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.3%

Resolved

191

Trades

734

lifetime

Volume

$48.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-31 07:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

61% 93% -$396

Politics

26% 75% -$29

Crypto

13% 94% +$89

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	23	$1.8K	1,130	1,130	+0	Yes	-$155	06-16 00:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	12	$1.2K	685	685	+0	No	+$98	05-11 04:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	8	$1.2K	625	625	+0	No	+$34	06-06 10:04
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 17?	28	$1.1K	546	546	+0	No	+$25	08-17 07:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	11	$956	702	702	+0	Yes	-$207	06-15 04:51
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on August 24?	28	$932	471	471	+0	No	+$9	08-24 07:42
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 23?	4	$915	463	463	+0	No	+$10	08-23 03:31
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on August 25?	11	$905	455	455	+0	No	+$4	08-25 07:30
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 23?	11	$883	453	453	+0	No	+$22	08-23 01:21
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 25?	4	$883	451	451	+0	No	+$19	08-25 02:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	5	$865	457	457	+0	No	+$45	05-01 01:12
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 22?	3	$846	425	425	+0	No	+$4	08-22 02:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$817	428	428	+0	Yes	+$30	04-04 00:26
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 31?	4	$771	393	393	+0	No	+$14	08-31 01:10
iran full airspace closure by august 15	6	$709	408	408	+0	No	+$24	08-04 13:42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	7	$679	391	391	+0	No	+$57	06-01 01:52
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 14?	4	$675	341	341	+0	No	+$6	08-14 08:47
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 14?	2	$662	335	335	+0	No	+$6	08-14 05:44
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 13?	3	$644	331	331	+0	No	+$10	08-13 05:01
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	8	$629	316	316	+0	No	+$0	08-30 04:25
will bitcoin dip to 62k on august 12	2	$628	320	320	+0	No	+$6	08-12 18:21
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 28?	2	$624	317	317	+0	No	+$9	08-28 03:45
bitcoin above 66k on august 11 2026	2	$613	309	309	+0	No	+$4	08-11 13:23
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	8	$583	520	520	+0	Yes	-$7	06-07 22:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	6	$552	309	309	+0	No	+$8	06-15 04:32
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on August 26?	7	$550	278	278	+0	No	+$5	08-26 09:06
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 26?	7	$537	272	272	-0	Yes	+$5	08-26 10:31
will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	3	$492	250	250	+0	No	+$2	07-27 02:51
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 19?	6	$483	244	244	+0	No	+$4	08-19 11:16
will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	2	$477	242	242	+0	No	+$2	06-26 05:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 07:02:45	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xf7872b…
10-31 06:49:42	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	31¢	$5	0xc8cb6a…
10-29 07:40:37	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x49ef8b…
10-25 16:01:17	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xdbbc19…
10-20 10:01:11	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0xd1b9cf…
10-16 08:00:43	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x6adf16…
10-14 08:47:31	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb616de…
10-08 13:37:23	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x4bbecd…
10-05 11:54:37	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x253648…
10-02 11:28:50	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x38bb31…
09-28 23:44:06	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$13	0xf5230d…
09-25 15:52:18	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$6	0x09bd3f…
09-25 04:27:26	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9e5329…
09-24 22:44:20	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe3a6ff…
09-22 10:25:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x6cb0c4…
09-20 00:54:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x0a7e65…
09-17 03:13:33	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0x730109…
09-14 07:25:36	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0xa044d3…
09-14 07:22:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xd8b58e…
09-12 16:56:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xdff802…
09-07 06:09:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	263	14¢	$37	0x29d14b…
09-07 06:04:51	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	16¢	$11	0x74bf56…
09-07 06:04:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	16¢	$27	0x2a44c0…
09-07 05:40:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	14¢	$18	0x56bd05…
09-07 05:40:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	14¢	$16	0x26fc89…
09-07 04:04:03	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	162	23¢	$37	0x5f3137…
09-06 01:58:25	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	162	84¢	$136	0xdc0616…
09-05 02:49:52	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	80	97¢	$77	0x3c22dd…
09-05 02:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on September 5?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xfbb5e2…
09-05 01:47:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xe501be…
09-05 01:47:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe6efbb…
09-04 09:25:55	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	94	96¢	$90	0xb0ccd6…
09-03 23:42:37	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x3d3838…
09-03 21:34:28	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on September 4?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x6ef9be…
09-03 00:18:46	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$89	0xde0f74…
09-02 22:55:28	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on September 4?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x4380db…
09-02 22:46:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on September 3?	No	BUY	35	92¢	$32	0xa61fd8…
09-02 00:14:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 2?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$62	0x50c465…
09-02 00:13:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 2?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x7dc832…
09-02 00:13:37	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on September 2?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x96e3e3…
09-02 00:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on September 2?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x95f43f…
09-02 00:11:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on September 2?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x30d073…
09-02 00:05:25	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on September 2?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xe37f09…
09-01 13:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x45a699…
09-01 13:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x3b4b5d…
09-01 13:42:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x506a39…
09-01 13:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x652d8e…
09-01 13:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa89a62…
09-01 13:38:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4abe93…
09-01 09:09:57	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	SELL	119	100¢	$119	0x6e8cb1…
09-01 08:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 1?	No	SELL	117	2¢	$2	0x0076fe…
09-01 05:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	117	99¢	$116	0xb5b845…
09-01 05:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0xeedb54…
09-01 05:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x5f7af1…
09-01 05:02:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x9cab54…
09-01 03:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xfa3c86…
09-01 03:14:40	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xcc294f…
09-01 03:10:40	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x790da4…
09-01 02:54:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on September 1?	No	SELL	145	100¢	$145	0x5a9a16…
09-01 01:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on September 1?	No	BUY	145	98¢	$142	0xa660b5…
08-31 13:45:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	84	95¢	$80	0xd39968…
08-31 13:27:58	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 31?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x605194…
08-31 13:27:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 31?	No	SELL	19	14¢	$3	0x0f7b7a…
08-31 13:27:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 31?	No	SELL	25	14¢	$4	0x2a049b…
08-31 13:26:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 31?	No	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xfe70fd…
08-31 13:26:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 31?	No	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x7a852c…
08-31 13:26:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 31?	No	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x485d59…
08-31 13:20:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 31?	No	BUY	59	91¢	$53	0xc7260d…
08-31 13:20:13	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 31?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xe9e5a3…
08-31 02:21:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	158	95¢	$150	0x81f3b0…
08-31 02:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	182	94¢	$171	0xd7d783…
08-31 01:35:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 31?	No	BUY	26	94¢	$24	0x7d2dc6…
08-31 01:24:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 31?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0x556c0b…
08-31 01:23:39	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x728702…
08-31 01:10:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 31?	No	SELL	393	100¢	$393	0xb81e65…
08-30 20:16:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 31?	No	BUY	113	96¢	$109	0x55226c…
08-30 20:13:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 31?	No	BUY	143	96¢	$138	0x8fa601…
08-30 20:12:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 31?	No	BUY	137	96¢	$132	0x21c50a…
08-30 12:49:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x915360…
08-30 11:33:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on August 30?	Yes	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xb5e2ba…
08-30 11:26:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on August 30?	Yes	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x771588…
08-30 11:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on August 30?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x8a3c5b…
08-30 09:06:54	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 30?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xf2a55d…
08-30 08:51:52	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x46ca61…
08-30 04:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	No	SELL	260	100¢	$259	0xb98d4b…
08-30 04:22:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5dc4bd…
08-30 04:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd0a768…
08-30 04:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1381a1…
08-30 04:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x94ba47…
08-30 03:46:52	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	No	BUY	262	100¢	$262	0x1a16ef…
08-30 02:37:19	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x7c60e5…
08-30 02:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on August 30?	No	SELL	94	100¢	$94	0x782497…
08-30 01:06:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 30?	No	SELL	202	100¢	$201	0x927969…
08-30 00:37:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 30?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xc7358e…
08-30 00:30:18	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on August 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8311be…
08-30 00:26:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xef55e9…
08-30 00:25:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x48645e…
08-30 00:24:58	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x14fb72…
08-30 00:24:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xa164f0…
08-30 00:23:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 30?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x4da113…