Political-Major — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.40K

Unrealized P&L

-$333

Hit rate

78.6%

Resolved

Trades

400

lifetime

Volume

$31.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

$453

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-23 13:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Politics

79% 66% +$9,110

Other

21% 57% +$287

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	-6,666	-$302	6¢	$-367	-$65	10-16 20:33
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+3,573	$336	2¢	$73	-$263	09-09 17:32
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	+97	$18	13¢	$13	-$5	10-23 09:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	20	$2.9K	3,300	1,400	+1,900	No	+$1,650	05-26 06:02
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	46	$2.6K	7,198	120	+7,078	Yes	+$4,548	02-11 09:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	7	$1.8K	2,470	1,500	+970	Yes	-$52	06-15 09:29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	14	$1.5K	3,100	0	+3,100	Yes	+$1,569	02-03 02:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	26	$1.5K	3,226	3,226	+0	Yes	-$40	02-11 08:02
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	21	$1.4K	3,558	10,225	-6,666	open	—	10-16 20:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	6	$1.2K	900	900	+0	No	+$105	05-28 06:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$1.1K	900	500	+400	No	+$169	05-28 00:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	13	$1.0K	772	772	+0	Yes	+$26	06-13 07:49
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$1.0K	1,630	0	+1,630	Yes	+$598	03-31 02:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$10	06-13 23:42
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	3	$963	600	600	+0	No	+$135	05-28 06:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	6	$911	970	0	+970	No	+$59	05-22 15:53
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	6	$805	500	500	+0	Yes	+$35	06-13 13:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$792	500	500	+0	No	+$192	04-21 19:57
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$752	400	400	+0	No	+$44	06-13 13:44
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$673	500	500	+0	No	-$53	05-12 07:27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	7	$610	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	09-24 02:51
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	28	$596	4,573	1,000	+3,573	open	—	09-09 17:32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	5	$581	300	522	-222	No	+$29	05-23 17:40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	1	$540	600	0	+600	No	+$60	05-27 15:49
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	4	$504	652	60	+592	No	+$198	03-31 00:57
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	10	$500	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	10-23 13:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$484	500	0	+500	No	+$16	05-08 12:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	2	$442	250	250	+0	No	+$22	05-26 05:47
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	7	$436	773	773	+0	No	-$204	05-24 03:04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	1	$415	500	0	+500	No	+$85	05-27 15:33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	2	$393	260	260	+0	No	+$91	05-24 15:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	1	$390	500	0	+500	Yes	+$110	05-04 10:29
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	7	$360	300	300	+0	No	+$114	05-24 00:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 13:35:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	260	44¢	$113	0x158c5d…
10-23 13:30:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	260	39¢	$100	0xbef7bb…
10-23 09:57:44	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x930cdd…
10-23 09:32:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	19¢	$18	0x80b688…
10-23 09:32:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0x47120e…
10-22 17:39:30	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	376	36¢	$136	0xf8881a…
10-22 16:53:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	144	36¢	$52	0x67a435…
10-16 20:33:47	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,314	6¢	$79	0xae7f29…
10-05 17:35:11	Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?	Yes	SELL	51	2¢	$1	0xb6161f…
09-30 21:08:18	Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?	Yes	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x5fac81…
09-24 12:42:15	Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x060d73…
09-24 02:51:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,239	4¢	$43	0x5aee42…
09-24 01:45:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x2f1df0…
09-24 01:41:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	735	4¢	$26	0xf538d1…
09-13 08:56:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,571	8¢	$286	0x8bf60e…
09-13 08:12:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x8a8dcd…
09-13 06:27:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0x2743f0…
09-13 06:27:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xceb5be…
09-13 01:27:25	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	8¢	$3	0x31c8d4…
09-12 23:49:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xe80aa8…
09-12 23:49:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	197	8¢	$16	0x7f0f8c…
09-09 17:32:40	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0xf572b6…
08-26 22:00:31	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0x4769b6…
08-26 22:00:31	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	10¢	$4	0x16c2f9…
08-26 21:54:27	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	236	10¢	$24	0x55ecb9…
08-26 21:54:27	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	194	10¢	$19	0x51a84c…
08-26 21:54:27	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x322170…
08-26 21:54:27	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x0fc4bc…
08-26 21:12:25	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x94932e…
08-26 21:10:15	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x6b67b4…
08-24 17:20:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,752	7¢	$123	0xea08ff…
07-28 19:38:38	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	938	13¢	$122	0x11a8cf…
07-28 18:30:14	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xb60544…
07-28 18:30:14	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x5216a2…
07-28 18:30:14	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	13¢	$3	0x4e7884…
06-29 12:28:49	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xdfa697…
06-29 05:23:34	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0x57ccca…
06-26 17:35:23	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	304	10¢	$29	0xdd5ebd…
06-26 05:53:52	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0xa5196f…
06-26 04:36:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	84	10¢	$8	0xcb867f…
06-25 17:04:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	601	10¢	$58	0xea57c6…
06-23 15:37:22	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	1¢	$0	0xcbc216…
06-23 15:37:22	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0xc259b5…
06-23 15:37:22	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xa01c86…
06-23 15:37:20	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xf24711…
06-23 15:37:20	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0x30018a…
06-23 15:37:19	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0xe4e581…
06-23 15:37:19	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0x783e42…
06-23 15:37:17	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	63	1¢	$1	0xca141d…
06-23 15:37:17	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	63	1¢	$1	0xc20ce4…
06-23 15:37:17	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x4d3e21…
06-23 15:37:17	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	63	1¢	$1	0x4b7b49…
06-23 15:37:16	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xde52ef…
06-23 15:37:16	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4f81ef…
06-23 15:37:16	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x458789…
06-23 15:37:16	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x1082cf…
06-23 15:26:38	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	1¢	$0	0x42aaf0…
06-23 15:25:37	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0xcbd6da…
06-23 15:25:35	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xeb81c2…
06-23 15:25:34	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x228671…
06-23 14:55:50	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x883512…
06-23 14:54:53	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xffd6ad…
06-23 13:32:31	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x226fe3…
06-23 12:36:32	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0xfa6a48…
06-23 12:36:32	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xee26e4…
06-23 12:36:32	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0x7ae6ba…
06-23 12:36:32	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	345	2¢	$5	0x74772b…
06-23 11:50:26	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x314e6e…
06-23 11:37:10	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$1	0x97afd4…
06-22 14:55:28	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0x903748…
06-19 23:46:40	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x556d02…
06-18 07:51:53	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	99	7¢	$7	0x827837…
06-18 07:08:49	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	132	7¢	$9	0x5ceeb6…
06-18 06:28:29	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x9bf779…
06-15 09:29:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	970	86¢	$837	0x81f834…
06-14 23:47:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	250	17¢	$42	0xd1887a…
06-14 08:09:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	250	76¢	$189	0x6128de…
06-13 23:42:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	565	51¢	$288	0x3bf7ab…
06-13 23:41:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	435	51¢	$222	0x8d8183…
06-13 14:08:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	493	83¢	$410	0x258ece…
06-13 14:06:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xc857bf…
06-13 13:56:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	827	50¢	$414	0x53a684…
06-13 13:44:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$398	0x0da48b…
06-13 13:41:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	173	50¢	$86	0x7dbc17…
06-13 13:36:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	SELL	500	84¢	$420	0x563552…
06-13 08:00:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	87	77¢	$67	0xeb69da…
06-13 07:57:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	143	77¢	$110	0x3fb4dd…
06-13 07:53:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	139	77¢	$107	0xd6bf5e…
06-13 07:52:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x639c42…
06-13 07:51:12	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xcaf351…
06-13 07:49:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	220	70¢	$154	0x79b169…
06-13 01:32:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x8f5f65…
06-13 01:32:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	1	69¢	$0	0x9059d3…
06-13 01:32:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x77a502…
06-13 01:28:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	500	69¢	$345	0xcdf502…
06-13 01:08:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0xe484ca…
06-13 01:07:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0x5a7373…
06-13 01:06:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0xc95248…
06-13 00:56:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x48063f…
06-13 00:54:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xc01369…