Treasured-Guy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.17K

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

560

Trades

4,158

lifetime

Volume

$503.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$121

Open exposure

$14

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 22:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 137 days

Categories

Politics

62% 47% -$1,661

Other

28% 35% +$4,918

Sports

4% 24% +$457

Crypto

4% 45% -$584

Tech

3% 76% +$1,035

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 252 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-263	-$6	3¢	$-9	-$2	06-18 01:39
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	-3	-$2	76¢	$-2	$0	06-15 02:57
will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	+60	$5	3¢	$2	-$3	07-27 16:56
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-107	-$2	1¢	$-1	+$1	06-15 02:57
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+6	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	09-14 04:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	6	$34.6K	18,262	18,262	+0	No	+$110	02-28 06:14
will axiom be accused of insider trading	27	$20.0K	8,564	17,670	-9,107	Yes	+$5,798	02-26 14:12
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	117	$15.2K	12,044	12,044	+0	open	—	06-10 01:28
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	19	$14.8K	10,946	11,146	-200	Yes	-$3,918	02-28 06:37
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$11.7K	5,962	5,962	+0	Yes	+$6	02-04 10:25
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	12	$11.7K	6,831	7,703	-873	Yes	-$80	02-01 13:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	17	$11.3K	6,454	6,454	+0	No	-$357	06-26 05:33
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	66	$10.5K	7,000	6,665	+335	Yes	+$1,185	06-19 02:07
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	59	$10.1K	5,880	5,880	+0	Yes	+$1,470	06-03 23:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	26	$9.5K	5,623	5,623	+0	Yes	+$118	06-15 22:46
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	70	$9.2K	6,477	6,477	+0	Yes	-$686	06-14 03:58
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	29	$9.0K	4,683	4,896	-213	Yes	+$35	06-03 23:15
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	5	$8.9K	4,965	4,965	+0	No	+$970	06-07 19:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	22	$8.7K	7,331	7,331	+0	Yes	+$620	09-14 22:46
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	20	$7.7K	7,388	1,510	+5,878	No	+$475	01-15 01:39
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	46	$7.0K	3,962	3,962	+0	Yes	+$910	05-23 21:47
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	32	$7.0K	9,587	0	+9,587	Yes	+$2,613	06-17 17:45
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	94	$6.9K	8,857	329	+8,528	Yes	+$2,111	02-23 22:47
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	31	$6.5K	4,379	4,307	+72	Yes	-$715	07-01 20:48
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	9	$6.5K	3,468	3,468	+0	No	+$448	03-31 06:51
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	46	$5.5K	5,058	4,859	+200	Yes	+$267	02-03 01:54
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	14	$5.5K	2,926	3,001	-74	No	+$424	02-03 02:00
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	43	$5.5K	9,790	7,199	+2,591	No	+$245	01-15 20:28
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	35	$5.3K	3,456	3,756	-300	Yes	+$785	03-08 22:22
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	16	$5.1K	6,000	0	+6,000	No	+$924	06-21 09:41
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%?	21	$4.7K	4,730	1,921	+2,810	Yes	-$741	06-12 17:43
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	50	$4.6K	4,235	4,235	+0	Yes	+$6	07-07 02:51
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	27	$4.4K	4,656	0	+4,656	No	+$213	01-13 21:50
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	20	$4.2K	2,953	2,953	+0	Yes	+$363	08-26 02:57
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	4	$4.2K	2,217	2,217	+0	Yes	+$196	08-13 01:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:53:30	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	186	100¢	$186	0x1b46dc…
10-26 19:26:14	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	186	80¢	$149	0x72b0bc…
10-20 00:58:17	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	58¢	$9	0xb5dc86…
10-20 00:58:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	92	77¢	$70	0x2019eb…
10-09 08:08:12	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0x8f90df…
10-09 08:07:15	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	22¢	$22	0xedca0a…
10-09 07:36:58	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x6f7f4a…
10-09 07:30:01	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xf50372…
10-09 07:22:42	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	48¢	$50	0x7b1bb1…
10-09 07:19:24	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x2bdebc…
10-09 07:10:04	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	43¢	$40	0x44bd08…
10-09 05:49:35	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	32¢	$26	0x3eb917…
10-09 05:49:02	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	31¢	$12	0x8641e2…
10-07 05:54:05	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	455	64¢	$291	0x6a3678…
10-06 05:30:33	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	188	2¢	$4	0xcc4136…
10-04 21:39:07	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	92	87¢	$80	0x641cda…
09-24 16:08:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x6da5c6…
09-24 05:25:44	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x3d658c…
09-23 09:49:07	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	303	66¢	$200	0x80c41a…
09-14 22:47:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xbbafa6…
09-14 22:46:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	240	87¢	$209	0x5a4541…
09-14 20:20:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	480	87¢	$417	0x59fa9d…
09-14 20:17:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	240	86¢	$206	0x9faefb…
09-14 09:46:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	767	80¢	$614	0xa8e753…
09-14 08:10:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	575	79¢	$455	0x9d3cf3…
09-14 07:03:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	767	78¢	$599	0x8cd036…
09-14 04:07:16	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x8ae2fc…
09-13 18:16:34	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0x6f8e6d…
09-13 01:46:22	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xe046c9…
09-11 14:56:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,023	80¢	$818	0xd9002a…
09-11 14:40:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,100	1¢	$11	0x872927…
09-09 17:03:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	62	53¢	$33	0x5904f7…
09-09 07:21:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,200	53¢	$1,166	0xc9a2d6…
09-07 23:19:25	Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	1,190	4¢	$49	0x881b01…
09-06 05:44:13	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	845	5¢	$42	0x1c4d87…
09-05 18:33:48	Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	1,190	4¢	$50	0xa9e8d7…
09-05 15:08:01	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,123	69¢	$775	0x61e394…
09-03 16:27:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,239	41¢	$1,328	0xb1bae1…
09-03 06:38:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x0357a6…
09-03 04:34:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	51¢	$255	0x35b76a…
09-01 17:41:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	937	59¢	$553	0xd1119a…
09-01 17:40:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0x20c9f6…
09-01 17:27:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	59¢	$8	0xe38d94…
09-01 17:23:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	35	59¢	$21	0x2d8d2e…
09-01 17:01:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,822	55¢	$1,002	0x5c7515…
09-01 16:59:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xdac51a…
09-01 15:54:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,017	59¢	$600	0xe5b9f3…
09-01 15:53:31	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x7a7d95…
09-01 15:53:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	933	48¢	$448	0xa21030…
08-31 19:41:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xacc8ae…
08-31 19:41:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0xf6e3c0…
08-30 23:21:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	350	47¢	$164	0xa385af…
08-30 23:19:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	266	47¢	$125	0x3c29cc…
08-30 22:09:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x30412c…
08-30 02:35:01	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	No	BUY	62	89¢	$55	0xc160f9…
08-26 02:57:22	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x1824ba…
08-25 22:25:19	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	243	56¢	$136	0x94e61b…
08-25 18:50:27	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	278	72¢	$200	0xd74de0…
08-24 00:44:33	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	282	65¢	$183	0x24f59b…
08-23 13:11:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	670	5¢	$33	0x02ff0e…
08-23 12:47:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x7a492c…
08-20 22:01:12	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	1,338	69¢	$923	0xfb02c4…
08-19 22:42:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	Yes	SELL	400	15¢	$60	0x23d891…
08-19 13:34:58	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	597	85¢	$507	0x95a7fc…
08-18 04:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:15 UTC	Up	SELL	345	12¢	$41	0xe1a59d…
08-18 04:17:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x2dba01…
08-18 04:17:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	118	26¢	$30	0x3134de…
08-18 04:17:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x92573e…
08-18 04:13:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	81	37¢	$30	0x228714…
08-18 04:12:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	95	31¢	$30	0x7db21f…
08-18 04:11:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x73b4ba…
08-18 04:11:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0x5b661a…
08-18 04:11:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	80	37¢	$30	0x66c8c9…
08-18 04:11:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	53	57¢	$30	0xb944af…
08-18 04:10:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xf72140…
08-18 04:10:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xe913a2…
08-18 04:10:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x67bbb7…
08-18 04:10:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	51	58¢	$30	0xac0983…
08-18 04:10:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0x2e363c…
08-18 04:06:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x556d11…
08-18 04:06:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x9d5298…
08-18 04:06:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xaaceb3…
08-18 04:06:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x40c104…
08-18 04:00:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x171881…
08-18 03:59:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x24e3e0…
08-18 03:59:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	SELL	661	97¢	$644	0xf8d638…
08-18 03:59:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xd843e4…
08-18 03:58:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0x1ed11d…
08-18 03:58:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x4b998c…
08-18 03:58:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	124	80¢	$100	0x4fcfd0…
08-18 03:58:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0x4593d8…
08-18 03:58:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	SELL	612	6¢	$36	0xa30d23…
08-18 03:57:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	55	54¢	$30	0xb6861d…
08-18 03:56:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0xefd68f…
08-18 03:56:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0xb643cb…
08-18 03:56:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x4432eb…
08-18 03:55:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x2496d7…
08-18 03:55:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x859ea5…
08-18 03:55:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0x2b69b6…
08-18 03:55:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	146	69¢	$100	0xefff57…