Quarterly-Neologism — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$432

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

49.7%

Resolved

986

Trades

1,311

lifetime

Volume

$2.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-17 14:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 44% -$155

Other

21% 19% -$105

Sports

12% 25% -$77

Politics

9% 14% -$93

Tech

1% 20% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes		-7	-$1	4¢	$-0	+$1	05-04 18:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-22 04:00 UTC	1	$127	145	0	+145	Down	-$127	01-22 04:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-22 01:30 UTC	1	$118	134	0	+134	Down	+$16	01-22 01:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 03:40 UTC	1	$110	111	0	+111	Down	+$1	03-03 03:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 23:40 UTC	1	$95	189	0	+189	Down	-$95	02-13 23:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 23:30 UTC	1	$94	96	0	+96	Up	+$2	02-13 23:34
nhl chi min 2026 01 27 total 6pt5	2	$67	121	0	+121	Over	-$67	01-28 03:05
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$67	159	159	+0	No	-$51	01-30 20:40
fl1 rcl hac 2026 01 30 rcl	1	$56	61	0	+61	Yes	+$5	01-30 21:32
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 20:45 UTC	1	$49	57	0	+57	Down	+$8	01-30 21:00
will russia enter sofiivka by january 31	2	$46	42	37	+5	No	+$10	01-21 21:41
spx up or down on january 8 2026	3	$28	42	7	+34	Up	+$12	01-08 20:52
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 560 579	2	$25	44	0	+44	Yes	+$6	01-09 16:48
us strike on somalia by january 31 563	1	$21	100	0	+100	Yes	-$21	01-27 22:42
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$21	48	48	+0	Yes	+$19	03-02 03:19
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$20	48	48	+0	Yes	-$5	01-30 20:39
nba den nop 2026 01 13	1	$20	37	0	+37	Nuggets	+$17	01-14 03:09
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$20	36	0	+36	Yes	+$16	01-07 03:03
nhl nsh bos 2026 01 27	1	$20	41	0	+41	Bruins	-$20	01-28 02:33
lal sev cel 2026 01 12 total 1pt5	1	$20	35	0	+35	Under	+$16	01-12 20:39
nba min hou 2026 01 16 total 221pt5	1	$18	38	0	+38	Under	+$19	01-17 04:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$17	102	102	+0	No	-$17	01-31 20:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-17 12:15 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	02-17 12:20
nfl sf sea 2026 01 17	2	$15	56	0	+56	Seahawks	-$15	01-17 16:20
nba uta cle 2026 01 12 total 246pt5	3	$15	35	0	+35	Under	+$20	01-12 17:19
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$15	13	13	+0	Yes	+$5	03-07 19:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:10 UTC	2	$13	12	12	+0	Up	+$3	10-16 10:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:40 UTC	3	$13	42	9	+33	Up	+$1	10-16 15:44
ice shooter charged by march 31	2	$13	9	9	+0	No	+$3	02-14 21:12
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	3	$12	12	138	-127	No	+$10	01-31 04:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 22:30 UTC	3	$12	14	3	+11	Up	+$1	03-05 22:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 14:35:06	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?	No	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0x76d316…
10-17 14:01:21	Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x566421…
10-17 14:01:15	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x512e67…
10-17 13:35:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x1b5968…
10-17 13:34:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1970c2…
10-17 13:33:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xa90ba9…
10-17 13:33:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x7805fb…
10-17 13:32:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:30 UTC	Up	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0x91e67a…
10-17 13:30:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x10e705…
10-17 13:28:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:25 UTC	Down	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0x8dee8e…
10-17 13:27:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:25 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6f1a65…
10-17 13:26:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:25 UTC	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xbc61da…
10-17 13:26:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x6b7eeb…
10-17 13:23:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:20 UTC	Up	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xca7171…
10-17 13:22:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd49c3f…
10-17 13:22:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:20 UTC	Down	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0xd28e8a…
10-17 13:20:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xc95848…
10-17 13:18:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC	Up	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x4ebbbf…
10-17 13:17:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9aae8f…
10-17 13:16:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC	Down	SELL	8	29¢	$2	0xd68e22…
10-17 13:15:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xefe028…
10-17 13:10:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xafb979…
10-17 13:07:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:05 UTC	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x9762d3…
10-17 13:05:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x41af32…
10-17 08:26:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 08:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x55898b…
10-17 06:31:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x23a580…
10-16 16:37:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 16:35 UTC	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xd06a43…
10-16 16:35:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 16:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x844556…
10-16 16:32:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xd72cb4…
10-16 15:51:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xdcba11…
10-16 15:45:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x6502a1…
10-16 15:44:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x17d76a…
10-16 15:43:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:40 UTC	Down	SELL	9	84¢	$7	0xf9a9dc…
10-16 15:43:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xba8a24…
10-16 15:39:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:35 UTC	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x947a10…
10-16 15:38:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x338d44…
10-16 15:37:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:35 UTC	Up	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x04d1ad…
10-16 15:37:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf08682…
10-16 15:35:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x2d1e61…
10-16 15:25:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1d34c0…
10-16 13:56:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 13:55 UTC	Down	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x96235f…
10-16 13:55:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 13:55 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xba1e4f…
10-16 13:52:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 13:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x282a96…
10-16 13:47:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 13:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x081a65…
10-16 13:46:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x604871…
10-16 13:35:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa2f9d3…
10-16 13:10:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x443654…
10-16 12:50:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe94319…
10-16 12:44:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 12:40 UTC	Down	SELL	10	89¢	$8	0xfb3feb…
10-16 12:40:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 12:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc1d2cd…
10-16 12:40:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 12:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x4d4f48…
10-16 10:17:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:15 UTC	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xaf741e…
10-16 10:16:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xadb4c9…
10-16 10:11:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:10 UTC	Up	SELL	12	73¢	$8	0x15ad15…
10-16 10:10:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x2aa6c3…
10-16 10:07:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x79d352…
10-16 10:07:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xed1cec…
10-16 10:00:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x19a8a0…
10-16 09:25:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x69181f…
10-16 09:21:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 09:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x711853…
10-16 08:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa09a28…
10-16 08:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x1417df…
08-08 03:55:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa13325…
08-08 03:50:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x1bf55b…
08-08 03:49:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x50a1b8…
08-08 03:48:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x82fe7d…
08-08 03:41:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xeaf414…
08-08 03:35:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:35 UTC	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x584f31…
08-08 03:22:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xa71538…
08-08 03:15:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x98a353…
08-08 03:10:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:10 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xd3c309…
08-08 03:06:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd1ddfa…
08-08 03:01:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x984f5e…
05-15 22:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x4ccfe8…
05-15 22:15:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc6a9a6…
05-15 19:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x8d05a0…
05-15 19:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x522b4a…
05-15 18:01:34	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb70a74…
05-15 17:06:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x84eb1b…
05-15 17:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xbb7faf…
05-15 16:53:49	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xf65909…
05-15 16:53:49	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0cce94…
05-14 16:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x0eb257…
05-14 16:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x213578…
05-14 16:37:49	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x9bc40d…
05-14 16:36:14	Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x519c7b…
05-14 16:36:09	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x13c926…
05-04 23:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd05b95…
05-04 23:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x0309fb…
05-04 23:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x373658…
05-04 23:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x14056b…
05-04 22:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xfd6c00…
05-04 22:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1e12a4…
05-04 22:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xd94c6d…
05-04 22:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xfed204…
05-04 22:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbfaa66…
05-04 21:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xde617d…
05-04 19:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9f95d7…
05-04 19:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x158ec5…
05-04 19:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xc0ad2b…