Upset-Sophomore — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.06K

Unrealized P&L

-$39

Hit rate

75.3%

Resolved

127

Trades

760

lifetime

Volume

$67.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$88

Open exposure

$24

1 position

First seen

2026-04-21

last 10-21 16:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Politics

47% 64% +$3,881

Other

41% 57% -$413

Sports

11% 43% +$1,403

Crypto

0% 33% -$6

Tech

0% 50% +$213

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes		+1,578	$64	2¢	$24	-$39	07-17 04:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	44	$8.1K	6,583	6,317	+267	Yes	+$1,208	05-11 11:40
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	40	$6.4K	4,391	4,391	+0	Yes	+$1,297	05-31 23:44
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	59	$5.2K	11,497	11,021	+476	Yes	+$1,413	07-07 19:24
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?	1	$3.2K	7,663	0	+7,663	Yes	-$3,171	06-15 23:34
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	2	$3.0K	4,931	0	+4,931	Atlanta Dream	+$1,923	10-21 15:43
T20 Series Japan vs Malaysia, Women: Japan vs Malaysia - Toss Match Double Japan Winner	1	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$60	09-13 18:21
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	13	$2.9K	1,804	1,804	+0	No	+$632	08-31 17:23
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	10	$2.4K	6,235	0	+6,235	No	-$2,400	07-11 04:10
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	12	$1.9K	2,919	40	+2,879	Yes	+$1,046	07-10 07:20
will khvicha kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	1	$1.8K	0	1,846	-1,846	No	-$2	06-08 22:30
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	16	$1.7K	1,037	1,037	+0	Yes	+$347	07-10 11:21
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	9	$1.5K	1,109	1,109	+0	Yes	+$215	09-03 20:41
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	11	$1.4K	3,290	3,290	+0	No	+$726	05-16 21:45
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	11	$1.3K	4,543	4,543	+0	No	+$779	06-23 13:39
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026?	35	$1.1K	2,355	1	+2,354	Yes	+$1,211	04-24 23:15
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	5	$971	522	522	+0	No	+$28	06-01 09:11
will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	5	$941	956	296	+660	Yes	+$39	07-16 15:00
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	5	$872	1,693	0	+1,693	No	-$872	07-11 07:48
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	1	$809	861	0	+861	Yes	+$52	06-27 14:20
will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 80k at auction 20260713215904487	1	$791	808	0	+808	Yes	+$17	07-16 15:00
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	19	$771	10,670	660	+10,010	No	-$85	09-01 02:08
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	2	$751	1,880	0	+1,880	Atlanta Dream	-$751	10-21 16:11
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	6	$683	602	602	+0	No	-$15	07-03 17:25
Are there more than 3,000,000 pennies in the room?	5	$650	333	333	+0	Yes	+$16	07-07 03:12
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	4	$645	700	0	+700	Yes	+$55	07-16 15:16
iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	21	$609	2,243	2,243	+0	Yes	-$17	07-13 16:25
will ukraine or ukrainian be in the headlines this week 20260710201027759	18	$590	484	340	+143	Yes	+$161	07-13 23:44
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	12	$586	599	599	+0	No	+$137	07-15 19:22
iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	6	$535	366	366	+0	No	-$2	07-15 00:09
fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 goals lionel messi gte1	4	$486	350	350	+0	Yes	-$4	06-27 16:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 16:11:06	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	500	40¢	$200	0xf489ee…
10-21 16:07:12	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	1,380	40¢	$551	0x5bec55…
10-21 15:43:41	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	BUY	1,126	61¢	$687	0x6cc87a…
10-21 15:38:57	Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	BUY	3,805	61¢	$2,321	0x6cff24…
10-04 13:25:13	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	69¢	$131	0xd44d94…
10-03 13:05:53	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	18¢	$21	0xbb7904…
10-03 13:00:23	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	18¢	$15	0x9756e9…
10-03 08:52:09	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	21¢	$12	0x7d6faa…
09-13 18:21:55	T20 Series Japan vs Malaysia, Women: Japan vs Malaysia - Toss Match Double Japan Winner	Yes	BUY	3,000	98¢	$2,940	0xd49616…
09-03 20:41:39	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	SELL	423	77¢	$324	0x4d832b…
09-03 20:41:00	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	SELL	316	77¢	$242	0xbedd1e…
09-03 20:40:55	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xed7bfe…
09-03 19:57:54	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	SELL	368	78¢	$285	0xe68a6c…
09-03 19:52:36	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xed5e5b…
09-03 19:52:36	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	500	56¢	$281	0x22b803…
09-03 19:51:10	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	400	56¢	$224	0x77256c…
09-03 19:50:27	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xaa7022…
09-03 19:47:12	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x60d6e8…
09-01 02:08:19	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$9	0xa4b1e9…
09-01 01:17:45	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe12ecb…
09-01 01:17:45	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	3,000	1¢	$18	0x942d07…
09-01 01:17:10	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6d401f…
09-01 01:17:09	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$7	0xeb0cee…
09-01 01:17:00	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$8	0x5508ae…
08-31 23:05:03	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x512bab…
08-31 22:52:07	Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0xbaf64e…
08-31 19:03:42	Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	Yes	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0x576ec2…
08-31 18:39:33	Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	Yes	BUY	36	82¢	$30	0x485109…
08-31 18:08:36	will lululemon say waterline during earnings call	Yes	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x594f5b…
08-31 18:01:13	will lululemon say quarter 15 times during earnings call	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xe0a8b5…
08-31 17:52:10	Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$2	0xc6bd95…
08-31 17:23:36	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,804	98¢	$1,773	0x5327d4…
08-30 23:31:25	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	364	63¢	$228	0x75bcb8…
08-30 22:48:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	53¢	$133	0x6ed38f…
08-30 21:16:37	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xfe2d1a…
08-30 21:16:37	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	82¢	$74	0x2ceadf…
08-30 00:32:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x17ce68…
08-30 00:27:22	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$8	0x5af9e3…
08-30 00:22:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x057bb9…
08-30 00:22:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x506028…
08-29 23:52:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x62d0b2…
08-29 23:28:42	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x8b7e5c…
08-29 20:43:04	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0x8bad03…
08-29 16:44:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x168510…
08-29 15:43:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0x401513…
08-29 15:21:43	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0x1f6014…
08-29 15:21:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	91¢	$251	0x1a43f6…
08-04 14:03:02	will spotify say stream during earnings call 20260730163821620	No	BUY	93	1¢	$1	0xe6afae…
08-04 14:03:02	will spotify say stream during earnings call 20260730163821620	No	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x5bc403…
07-25 19:14:57	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	613	10¢	$62	0x1c5e15…
07-22 00:07:13	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	No	SELL	750	8¢	$62	0xff5adf…
07-21 23:34:36	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	No	SELL	250	9¢	$22	0x4727d4…
07-21 21:50:12	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	No	BUY	1,000	30¢	$299	0x0c3903…
07-18 23:51:58	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	184	88¢	$163	0xde9d76…
07-18 21:43:16	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x7e043c…
07-18 21:42:12	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0x7169c8…
07-18 21:42:10	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	15	88¢	$14	0x0d1bb1…
07-18 21:37:31	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	38	88¢	$33	0x82681d…
07-18 21:30:52	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x003623…
07-18 21:29:31	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	SELL	36	88¢	$32	0xbaed76…
07-17 10:39:39	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	130	0¢	$0	0xc18fe5…
07-17 04:56:16	SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	4¢	$6	0x94502f…
07-16 21:46:13	will woman be in the headlines this week 20260710201027767	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x58f0fa…
07-16 15:16:34	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x830c24…
07-16 15:16:23	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	121	92¢	$112	0x291a7d…
07-16 15:16:10	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	29	92¢	$26	0x7389e3…
07-16 15:16:08	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	350	92¢	$323	0xbfef09…
07-16 15:06:40	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	170	4¢	$6	0x8a7b02…
07-16 15:06:31	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x017ae0…
07-16 15:06:23	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	210	5¢	$10	0x6aae64…
07-16 15:06:17	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	600	7¢	$43	0xcafc5d…
07-16 15:00:47	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 80k at auction 20260713215904487	Yes	BUY	808	98¢	$791	0x949cfb…
07-16 15:00:32	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	BUY	444	96¢	$427	0x767bb0…
07-16 14:33:59	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	28	20¢	$6	0x139745…
07-16 14:26:29	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	31	21¢	$7	0xbe86ea…
07-16 03:57:34	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	BUY	136	70¢	$95	0x750b66…
07-16 03:55:46	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	BUY	164	70¢	$114	0x82e1a4…
07-16 02:06:29	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	BUY	615	4¢	$24	0xe1ccbf…
07-16 02:06:13	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	No	BUY	216	3¢	$7	0x9e7f37…
07-15 21:06:50	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x97bd3a…
07-15 21:02:28	will reserve be in the headlines this week 20260710201027751	Yes	SELL	30	38¢	$11	0xafeb4d…
07-15 20:59:55	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	BUY	595	5¢	$30	0x399595…
07-15 20:58:59	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	SELL	64	97¢	$62	0x1bb7b0…
07-15 19:22:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	527	65¢	$343	0x92dc68…
07-15 11:10:59	will trump say middle east during speech to the nation 20260713200621425	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe1ad27…
07-15 06:54:25	SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x69c946…
07-15 01:02:02	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xba57f2…
07-15 01:00:04	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x8f879c…
07-15 00:55:40	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	SELL	231	89¢	$206	0xcfa2f4…
07-15 00:47:52	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	BUY	296	81¢	$240	0x86baec…
07-15 00:23:38	will trump say middle east during speech to the nation 20260713200621425	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x674321…
07-15 00:09:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	SELL	31	64¢	$20	0x502f1a…
07-14 19:54:02	will trump say middle east during speech to the nation 20260713200621425	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xe3941c…
07-14 18:22:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	208	26¢	$54	0xa3b33d…
07-14 18:09:01	Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No	SELL	158	96¢	$152	0xcc2f9c…
07-14 16:34:02	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	SELL	131	49¢	$64	0x262c32…
07-14 16:24:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0xe66519…
07-14 16:24:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	SELL	104	52¢	$54	0xe23bc8…
07-14 16:23:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	SELL	96	53¢	$51	0x69fe58…
07-14 16:23:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	No	SELL	189	53¢	$99	0x3eee58…