Upset-Sophomore — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$66

Unrealized P&L

+$33

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

606

lifetime

Volume

$44.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$158

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 07-22 00:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% 100% +$66

Other

32% — —

Sports

16% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes		+1,578	$64	6¢	$88	+$24	07-17 04:56
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes		+613	$61	12¢	$70	+$9	07-14 15:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	41	$7.5K	6,583	5,509	+1,075	open	—	05-11 11:40
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	35	$6.3K	4,164	4,391	-226	open	—	05-31 23:44
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	59	$5.2K	11,497	11,021	+476	open	—	07-07 19:24
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	12	$1.9K	2,919	40	+2,879	open	—	07-10 07:20
will khvicha kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	1	$1.8K	0	1,846	-1,846	open	—	06-08 22:30
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	16	$1.7K	1,037	1,037	+0	open	—	07-10 11:21
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	11	$1.4K	3,290	3,290	+0	open	—	05-16 21:45
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 21 2026	11	$1.3K	4,543	4,543	+0	open	—	06-23 13:39
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026?	35	$1.1K	2,355	1	+2,354	open	—	04-24 23:15
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	5	$971	522	522	+0	open	—	06-01 09:11
will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	5	$941	956	296	+660	open	—	07-16 15:00
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	5	$872	1,693	0	+1,693	open	—	07-11 07:48
will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 80k at auction 20260713215904487	1	$791	808	0	+808	open	—	07-16 15:00
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	10	$708	660	660	+0	open	—	07-13 20:06
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	4	$645	700	0	+700	open	—	07-16 15:16
iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	21	$609	2,243	2,243	+0	open	—	07-13 16:25
will ukraine or ukrainian be in the headlines this week 20260710201027759	18	$590	484	340	+143	open	—	07-13 23:44
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	12	$586	599	599	+0	open	—	07-15 19:22
iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	6	$535	366	366	+0	open	—	07-15 00:09
fifwc jor arg 2026 06 27 goals lionel messi gte1	4	$486	350	350	+0	open	—	06-27 16:51
will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232	5	$479	651	0	+651	open	—	07-14 03:32
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	10	$462	10,420	400	+10,020	open	—	05-28 22:16
chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	3	$384	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-22 00:07
iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	7	$349	462	442	+20	open	—	07-14 18:22
will donald trump publicly insult nicols maduro by june 30 2026	5	$325	740	491	+249	open	—	06-23 00:44
Will Trump say "ISIS" in May?	1	$323	334	0	+334	Yes	+$11	05-05 13:10
iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	7	$300	275	275	+0	open	—	07-14 16:34
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	9	$276	1,045	1	+1,044	open	—	07-01 17:12
iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	10	$275	222	222	+0	open	—	07-14 16:23
iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	7	$251	211	211	+0	open	—	07-14 16:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 00:07:13	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	No	SELL	750	8¢	$62	0xff5adf…
07-21 23:34:36	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	No	SELL	250	9¢	$22	0x4727d4…
07-21 21:50:12	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	No	BUY	1,000	30¢	$299	0x0c3903…
07-17 10:39:39	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	130	0¢	$0	0xc18fe5…
07-17 04:56:16	SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	4¢	$6	0x94502f…
07-16 21:46:13	will woman be in the headlines this week 20260710201027767	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x58f0fa…
07-16 15:16:34	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x830c24…
07-16 15:16:23	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	121	92¢	$112	0x291a7d…
07-16 15:16:10	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	29	92¢	$26	0x7389e3…
07-16 15:16:08	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	350	92¢	$323	0xbfef09…
07-16 15:06:40	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	170	4¢	$6	0x8a7b02…
07-16 15:06:31	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x017ae0…
07-16 15:06:23	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	210	5¢	$10	0x6aae64…
07-16 15:06:17	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	600	7¢	$43	0xcafc5d…
07-16 15:00:47	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 80k at auction 20260713215904487	Yes	BUY	808	98¢	$791	0x949cfb…
07-16 15:00:32	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	BUY	444	96¢	$427	0x767bb0…
07-16 14:33:59	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	28	20¢	$6	0x139745…
07-16 14:26:29	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	31	21¢	$7	0xbe86ea…
07-16 02:06:29	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	BUY	615	4¢	$24	0xe1ccbf…
07-16 02:06:13	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	No	BUY	216	3¢	$7	0x9e7f37…
07-15 21:06:50	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x97bd3a…
07-15 21:02:28	will reserve be in the headlines this week 20260710201027751	Yes	SELL	30	38¢	$11	0xafeb4d…
07-15 20:59:55	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	No	BUY	595	5¢	$30	0x399595…
07-15 20:58:59	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	SELL	64	97¢	$62	0x1bb7b0…
07-15 19:22:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	527	65¢	$343	0x92dc68…
07-15 11:10:59	will trump say middle east during speech to the nation 20260713200621425	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe1ad27…
07-15 06:54:25	SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x69c946…
07-15 01:02:02	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xba57f2…
07-15 01:00:04	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 90k at auction 20260713233758306	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x8f879c…
07-15 00:55:40	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	SELL	231	89¢	$206	0xcfa2f4…
07-15 00:47:52	will the jensen jacket jensen huangs tom ford leather jacket sell for at least 85k at auction 20260713233758305	Yes	BUY	296	81¢	$240	0x86baec…
07-15 00:23:38	will trump say middle east during speech to the nation 20260713200621425	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x674321…
07-15 00:09:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	SELL	31	64¢	$20	0x502f1a…
07-14 19:54:02	will trump say middle east during speech to the nation 20260713200621425	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xe3941c…
07-14 18:22:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	208	26¢	$54	0xa3b33d…
07-14 18:09:01	Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No	SELL	158	96¢	$152	0xcc2f9c…
07-14 16:34:02	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	SELL	131	49¢	$64	0x262c32…
07-14 16:24:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0xe66519…
07-14 16:24:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	SELL	104	52¢	$54	0xe23bc8…
07-14 16:23:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	SELL	96	53¢	$51	0x69fe58…
07-14 16:23:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	No	SELL	189	53¢	$99	0x3eee58…
07-14 16:22:59	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	SELL	234	32¢	$75	0xb32435…
07-14 15:43:29	bitcoin above 72k on july 16 2026	Yes	BUY	18,774	0¢	$19	0x970ea2…
07-14 15:42:22	bitcoin above 70k on july 16 2026	Yes	BUY	205	1¢	$1	0xf33cf3…
07-14 15:31:02	will trump say middle east during speech to the nation 20260713200621425	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x766098…
07-14 15:20:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	SELL	116	73¢	$85	0x30633d…
07-14 15:15:55	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	613	10¢	$61	0x2b4b85…
07-14 13:30:44	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	SELL	204	74¢	$151	0xbe5852…
07-14 11:21:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	230	35¢	$81	0x1d366a…
07-14 04:19:13	will there be 6 bonus swing home runs during the 2026 mlb home run derby 20260709214434894	Yes	SELL	212	15¢	$32	0x488b40…
07-14 03:44:47	will there be 6 bonus swing home runs during the 2026 mlb home run derby 20260709214434894	Yes	BUY	212	29¢	$62	0x875dda…
07-14 03:32:41	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232	Yes	BUY	112	74¢	$83	0xd28744…
07-14 03:26:05	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xeeb30b…
07-14 03:11:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	SELL	56	60¢	$34	0x55981a…
07-14 02:10:28	trump declassifies new ufo files by august 15 20260710184334566	Yes	SELL	120	89¢	$107	0x39bb20…
07-14 02:07:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	61	28¢	$17	0x9c453e…
07-14 02:04:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x48d327…
07-14 01:36:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x671c1f…
07-14 01:30:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	281	77¢	$217	0x34c028…
07-14 01:29:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	120	56¢	$67	0x86d6ca…
07-14 01:14:29	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	BUY	50	49¢	$25	0xb06a07…
07-14 01:14:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x4f9a02…
07-14 01:13:44	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	No	BUY	52	65¢	$34	0x0dafb4…
07-14 01:13:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x62dc94…
07-14 01:11:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	BUY	67	61¢	$41	0x515d6d…
07-14 01:11:14	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	No	BUY	57	64¢	$37	0xe39b0c…
07-14 01:08:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	No	BUY	37	63¢	$24	0x28e95d…
07-14 01:08:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	BUY	37	60¢	$22	0x2e3dfc…
07-14 01:07:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x55cace…
07-14 01:07:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	85	61¢	$52	0xa78a8a…
07-14 01:06:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	135	46¢	$62	0x4a650d…
07-14 01:06:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	BUY	36	59¢	$21	0x0ae9d8…
07-14 01:06:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	No	BUY	42	62¢	$26	0x23c56a…
07-14 01:05:59	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	61	59¢	$36	0xb2ae0b…
07-14 01:04:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	72	25¢	$18	0xe71686…
07-14 00:13:22	Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x353831…
07-14 00:12:56	will clavicular kiss the western wall in 2026 20260709144445859	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x389282…
07-14 00:12:22	will clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026 20260710172344899	No	SELL	30	74¢	$22	0x165cf5…
07-14 00:09:22	will war be in the headlines this week 20260710201027755	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xa9ae38…
07-13 23:44:29	will ukraine or ukrainian be in the headlines this week 20260710201027759	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x8852ed…
07-13 23:16:56	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	21	67¢	$14	0xd12221…
07-13 23:16:43	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	40	89¢	$35	0x9d972a…
07-13 22:53:22	will war be in the headlines this week 20260710201027755	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x0653c5…
07-13 20:46:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	No	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x7aa426…
07-13 20:46:43	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x0b37a4…
07-13 20:46:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x5c999f…
07-13 20:46:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0x2706bd…
07-13 20:46:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	No	SELL	70	69¢	$48	0x2b12a4…
07-13 20:46:02	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	No	SELL	22	69¢	$15	0x3abf58…
07-13 20:06:40	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0x8ec6cb…
07-13 20:06:40	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	9	52¢	$4	0x894cd1…
07-13 20:06:40	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	627	52¢	$326	0x5b3ea6…
07-13 19:32:23	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0x355693…
07-13 18:44:59	trump declassifies new ufo files by august 15 20260710184334566	Yes	BUY	52	75¢	$39	0x1661e1…
07-13 18:44:55	trump declassifies new ufo files by august 15 20260710184334566	Yes	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x15ee25…
07-13 18:44:40	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 20260710184334565	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x6cfec1…
07-13 18:11:49	will woman be in the headlines this week 20260710201027767	No	SELL	63	70¢	$44	0x5a69d6…
07-13 17:27:58	will senate be in the headlines this week 20260710201027762	Yes	SELL	82	66¢	$54	0x7991bc…
07-13 17:27:35	will ukraine or ukrainian be in the headlines this week 20260710201027759	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x5c3abb…
07-13 17:20:08	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	55	53¢	$29	0x9d82dc…