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Realized P&L (24h)
-$21
Unrealized P&L
+$107
Hit rate
36.3%
Resolved (24h)
15
Trades (24h)
14
2,629 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$61
$23.3K lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$953
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-04
last 11-15 00:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 54 days
Categories
Other
69% 11% -$528
Politics
16% 15% -$77
Sports
8% 38% +$1
Tech
4% 14% -$9
Crypto
3% 38% -$30
Pop-Culture
1% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
46 active days in 12wk • peak 328 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +160 $142 84¢ $134 -$8 11-11 16:35
Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026? Yes +99 $85 92¢ $91 +$6 11-11 15:41
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +60 $48 85¢ $51 +$3 10-21 17:30
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No +51 $25 88¢ $44 +$19 11-11 15:42
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by November 30, 2026? No +67 $21 55¢ $37 +$16 11-11 16:16
Will the Las Vegas Raiders make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? No +40 $29 89¢ $36 +$6 10-11 21:45
Will Justin Herbert have 4,099.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No +40 $29 88¢ $35 +$6 10-09 13:13
Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027? Yes +40 $25 83¢ $33 +$8 10-21 21:38
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? No +60 $32 55¢ $33 +$1 11-11 17:19
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by November 30, 2026? Yes +67 $48 45¢ $30 -$17 11-11 16:12
Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? Yes +40 $22 70¢ $28 +$6 11-11 05:15
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of November 2026? No +40 $31 67¢ $27 -$4 11-10 21:01
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? Yes +60 $29 45¢ $27 -$2 11-11 17:19
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +160 $18 16¢ $26 +$8 11-11 16:35
Will Joe Burrow have 4,249.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes +33 $16 76¢ $25 +$9 10-21 17:47
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes +33 $12 68¢ $22 +$11 10-12 09:05
Will Michael rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? Yes +40 $16 52¢ $21 +$5 10-11 14:00
Will Texas Tech Red Raiders Win the 2026 Big 12 Championship? No +29 $22 72¢ $21 -$1 10-22 04:28
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher? Yes +20 $18 100¢ $20 +$2 11-11 17:38
Will Ashton Jeanty have 974.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No +20 $14 99¢ $20 +$6 10-21 05:23
Will Jeremiyah Love have 1,000+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? No +20 $14 99¢ $20 +$6 10-21 05:57
Will Georgia Tech have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? No +20 $16 98¢ $20 +$4 10-10 19:51
Will Matthew Golden have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes +20 $15 97¢ $19 +$4 10-13 12:16
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision? No +20 $18 97¢ $19 +$2 10-08 03:23
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? No +20 $16 97¢ $19 +$3 10-11 13:30
Will Michael rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? No +40 $25 48¢ $19 -$5 10-11 14:00
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2026? No +20 $16 96¢ $19 +$4 10-12 08:47
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? No +20 $15 96¢ $19 +$4 10-11 17:32
Will West Virginia have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? No +20 $15 94¢ $19 +$4 10-10 02:36
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? No +20 $15 94¢ $19 +$3 10-10 16:43