Neat-Tug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

25.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,384

lifetime

Volume

$15.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-26

last 07-15 22:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

52% 0% $-9

Politics

38% 0% $-5

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 167 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+5	$5	96¢	$5	$-0	07-12 13:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	22	$758	633	590	+43	open	—	06-15 05:07
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	80	$566	624	622	+1	open	—	06-21 10:39
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	94	$478	548	488	+60	open	—	06-26 16:47
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	18	$477	247	246	+0	open	—	06-11 17:31
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	14	$462	240	240	+0	open	—	06-09 15:01
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	15	$459	291	253	+38	open	—	06-18 15:45
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	31	$377	225	231	-6	open	—	06-20 05:32
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	16	$346	224	224	+0	open	—	06-16 02:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	12	$335	172	179	-7	open	—	06-16 23:48
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	9	$314	191	133	+58	open	—	06-14 18:36
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	9	$309	163	163	+0	open	—	06-16 02:52
will ethereum reach 2200 in june 2026	6	$291	177	177	+0	open	—	06-16 12:31
will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	7	$286	60	232	-172	open	—	06-17 03:33
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	7	$232	127	116	+11	open	—	06-15 20:17
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	13	$212	111	111	+0	open	—	06-09 03:33
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	7	$195	49	155	-106	open	—	06-21 14:01
Iran leadership change by June 30?	15	$178	93	93	+0	open	—	06-11 19:30
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	6	$164	85	85	+0	open	—	06-07 20:39
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 340 359	34	$144	153	0	+153	open	—	04-17 07:52
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	7	$144	76	76	+0	open	—	06-16 02:52
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	44	$138	144	144	-0	open	—	06-15 19:41
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	8	$137	72	71	+1	open	—	06-12 20:18
Netanyahu out by June 30?	2	$136	69	69	+0	open	—	06-13 02:40
ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	5	$128	67	66	+1	open	—	06-12 20:49
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	15	$127	101	88	+13	open	—	06-23 14:59
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	15	$122	121	113	+8	open	—	06-24 17:04
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	2	$116	59	59	+0	open	—	06-11 18:04
will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in june 2026	6	$116	60	59	+1	open	—	06-08 23:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	40	$114	178	143	+35	open	—	06-14 22:33
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	5	$110	10	105	-95	open	—	06-15 20:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 22:21:41	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	36	22¢	$8	0xea102a…
07-15 22:19:41	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0x94d774…
07-15 22:19:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0x0181e6…
07-15 22:19:40	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x90446e…
07-15 21:31:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xd6e8e9…
07-15 21:31:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xd6e8e9…
07-15 21:31:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xc98372…
07-15 19:44:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe50436…
07-15 19:44:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xcd680f…
07-15 19:44:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x0e9552…
07-15 17:12:19	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x19a5c3…
07-15 17:11:47	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x7eef2a…
07-15 17:11:17	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x302d13…
07-15 17:11:05	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x360682…
07-12 13:30:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4cf566…
06-26 16:47:19	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0xeb7230…
06-26 12:50:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	18	20¢	$4	0xc2b6ad…
06-25 17:03:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	18	18¢	$3	0x875214…
06-25 14:33:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	17	19¢	$3	0x5f464a…
06-25 14:16:32	will ethereum dip to 1200 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0x6a6b76…
06-25 13:58:11	will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	24	6¢	$1	0x72cfad…
06-25 13:57:44	will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x55022c…
06-25 12:06:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0x7183be…
06-25 12:06:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x7183be…
06-25 11:58:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	7	81¢	$5	0x9fb663…
06-25 02:43:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x49a5d4…
06-25 02:36:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xb1e484…
06-25 02:04:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x8f597b…
06-25 01:51:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x41ed5f…
06-24 17:04:25	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	24	13¢	$3	0xe3a64d…
06-23 14:59:37	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x059a56…
06-23 11:46:46	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	28	10¢	$3	0x2ae505…
06-23 11:45:29	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x7485d3…
06-23 06:27:40	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	Yes	SELL	24	5¢	$1	0xef2ab6…
06-22 20:47:32	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x3baaf8…
06-22 20:28:43	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x2d4564…
06-22 15:41:28	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x3bf5b9…
06-22 15:34:43	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xceebcc…
06-22 15:34:41	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xa3a31c…
06-22 15:32:58	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xdc05fa…
06-22 15:25:02	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xcc3df2…
06-22 15:24:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x09ae3f…
06-22 15:24:38	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x0869b7…
06-22 15:14:38	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x39584a…
06-22 15:07:17	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	29¢	$4	0x15d6bd…
06-22 12:54:20	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x8a539f…
06-22 11:26:14	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0xa3f8c9…
06-22 11:23:55	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	28¢	$4	0xdfd91a…
06-22 11:14:31	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0xbe9d8b…
06-22 04:19:38	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	BUY	48	6¢	$3	0x9e7f48…
06-21 15:25:17	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	14	23¢	$3	0x25a85a…
06-21 14:40:04	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	No	SELL	16	81¢	$13	0x226cab…
06-21 14:01:17	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0xb5ec46…
06-21 12:55:41	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0xe98f17…
06-21 10:39:08	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	14¢	$3	0x0bd27c…
06-21 07:06:16	will mishal al ahmad al jaber al sabah sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950083	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0xc06172…
06-21 02:24:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x31d59e…
06-20 23:38:20	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x68b2c8…
06-20 22:52:13	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0x63f0b0…
06-20 22:49:40	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0xc046dc…
06-20 22:46:17	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0x308863…
06-20 22:44:26	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x473a8f…
06-20 22:40:17	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	25¢	$5	0xce7e1c…
06-20 22:34:26	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x75e6a9…
06-20 22:32:26	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x758516…
06-20 22:26:11	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0x616317…
06-20 22:26:11	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x616317…
06-20 21:03:59	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	No	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0x1b8e29…
06-20 21:03:59	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	17	21¢	$4	0x1b8e29…
06-20 20:43:59	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0xbde324…
06-20 20:40:46	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	17	20¢	$3	0xb26769…
06-20 20:35:05	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0x5161cc…
06-20 18:52:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3d5bbc…
06-20 18:42:58	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	No	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x1c9ad0…
06-20 18:35:22	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	No	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x47a55e…
06-20 18:29:29	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x74d384…
06-20 18:29:29	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	No	SELL	11	69¢	$8	0x74d384…
06-20 17:18:40	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	No	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x3deaab…
06-20 17:13:50	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	32¢	$3	0xc55c77…
06-20 17:07:01	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xd6c214…
06-20 17:07:01	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xc87958…
06-20 17:07:01	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xc49530…
06-20 17:07:01	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xa41969…
06-20 17:07:01	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xa11183…
06-20 17:06:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0xc2cfe2…
06-20 17:06:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x1c1fa8…
06-20 17:06:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x176aee…
06-20 17:06:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x042011…
06-20 17:04:01	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xcf0a33…
06-20 17:03:02	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	31¢	$3	0x6563fd…
06-20 16:57:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x7e40c7…
06-20 16:46:50	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0xf64137…
06-20 16:37:01	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xb1617d…
06-20 16:36:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xacb655…
06-20 16:36:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x75e756…
06-20 16:36:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x6eccb9…
06-20 16:36:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x2e1088…
06-20 16:36:59	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x155c67…
06-20 16:36:58	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x8f3e28…
06-20 16:36:58	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x068a9e…