Mellow-Sip — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$256.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$6.07K

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

418

Trades

4,551

lifetime

Volume

$5.72M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.26K

Open exposure

$13.0K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-24 17:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 138 days

Categories

Sports

58% 65% -$196,955

Other

29% 70% -$45,159

Crypto

8% 71% -$20,778

Politics

2% 82% +$5,711

Tech

2% 100% +$891

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No		+12,366	$9,946	93¢	$11.5K	+$1,554	08-06 04:36
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		-52,834	-$6,023	3¢	$-1506	+$4,517	08-05 15:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	130	$341.6K	172,677	172,677	+0	Yes	+$1,304	04-21 15:46
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	36	$300.4K	309,876	0	+309,876	Yes	+$9,513	01-23 18:49
nba phi bos 2026 04 21	126	$242.6K	247,977	68,976	+179,001	76ers	-$197,584	04-22 01:23
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$219.7K	0	220,000	-220,000	No	-$270	01-21 20:13
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	149	$144.3K	145,200	108,764	+36,435	Spurs	+$13,280	04-26 21:46
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	42	$111.2K	58,903	58,903	+0	Under	+$1,483	07-03 01:05
Thunder vs. Suns	72	$104.6K	64,370	56,744	+7,627	Thunder	+$1,210	04-25 21:21
Celtics vs. 76ers	22	$102.6K	86,171	42,841	+43,329	Celtics	+$7,518	04-25 01:31
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	41	$98.0K	100,000	0	+100,000	No	+$2,000	02-03 19:02
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	21	$93.9K	106,426	0	+106,426	Seahawks	+$12,570	02-09 02:21
nba phi bos 2026 04 19	22	$93.7K	103,187	0	+103,187	Celtics	+$9,438	04-19 17:23
nba tor cle 2026 04 20	30	$88.2K	103,719	0	+103,719	Cavaliers	+$15,525	04-21 00:50
nba por sas 2026 04 19	14	$74.3K	75,938	5,518	+70,420	Spurs	+$6,385	04-20 02:28
will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	176	$73.2K	39,411	34,028	+5,383	No	+$152	01-29 08:33
nba hou cha 2026 02 19	28	$70.1K	57,586	20,000	+37,586	Rockets	+$4,273	02-20 02:17
Spurs vs. Thunder	4	$64.9K	72,358	0	+72,358	Spurs	+$7,493	05-31 02:41
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	34	$62.6K	64,786	0	+64,786	No	+$2,234	01-31 23:31
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	44	$62.0K	52,421	42,785	+9,636	Raptors	-$15,130	04-26 19:51
nba ind orl 2026 03 23	25	$54.7K	31,948	31,948	+0	Pacers	-$685	03-24 01:26
Hawks vs. Knicks	6	$54.2K	44,624	15,496	+29,129	Knicks	+$3,045	04-29 01:41
will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	24	$50.0K	56,073	0	+56,073	Yes	+$6,038	06-29 14:32
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	8	$45.6K	51,129	10,000	+41,129	Argentina	-$41,423	07-07 17:33
will trump visit china by march 31	11	$42.6K	42,983	0	+42,983	No	+$387	03-25 04:32
nba sac hou 2026 02 25	2	$41.9K	47,463	0	+47,463	Rockets	+$5,546	02-25 11:51
nba chi okc 2026 03 27	24	$41.9K	32,082	18,977	+13,105	Thunder	-$5,987	03-28 01:41
spx up or down on february 9 2026	14	$41.0K	41,465	0	+41,465	Up	+$501	02-09 20:36
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	69	$40.9K	28,006	28,006	+0	Cavaliers	-$2,344	05-09 21:47
nba sac tor 2026 04 01	40	$40.3K	32,882	30,214	+2,668	Kings	-$17,222	04-02 02:30
nba atl nyk 2026 04 18	14	$39.8K	45,087	0	+45,087	Knicks	+$5,248	04-19 00:19
nba bkn bos 2026 02 27	19	$39.7K	43,705	0	+43,705	Celtics	+$3,970	02-28 01:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 17:06:35	Pelicans vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	2,000	81¢	$1,620	0x5f8f4f…
10-24 16:13:32	Pelicans vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	5,000	81¢	$4,050	0x0fbdfc…
10-24 15:52:30	Pelicans vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0x8e979b…
10-24 15:45:11	Pelicans vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	2,000	81¢	$1,620	0xf52d84…
10-24 14:51:26	Nets vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	1,500	82¢	$1,230	0x92f1dd…
10-23 22:10:26	Clippers vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	10,000	76¢	$7,600	0xefa6cc…
10-23 22:09:17	Clippers vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	10,000	76¢	$7,600	0xf4c582…
10-23 21:19:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	SELL	2,000	74¢	$1,476	0x43279c…
10-22 18:33:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	2,000	44¢	$880	0x4d7640…
10-14 12:30:20	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	312	68¢	$212	0x9c6910…
10-14 12:30:18	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	698	68¢	$475	0x3499bd…
10-14 12:30:18	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	1,000	68¢	$680	0x264c76…
10-14 12:30:17	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	547	68¢	$372	0xd8aced…
10-14 12:30:14	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	317	10¢	$32	0x8a0a06…
10-14 12:30:14	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	204	10¢	$20	0x4c4c12…
10-14 12:30:12	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	544	10¢	$54	0xeee1fd…
10-14 12:30:11	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0xb67025…
10-14 12:30:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	4,746	68¢	$3,228	0xebe621…
10-14 12:30:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	446	68¢	$304	0xd077f4…
10-14 12:30:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	467	68¢	$318	0x37768c…
10-14 12:30:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	97	10¢	$10	0x2311aa…
10-14 12:30:08	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x48db47…
10-14 12:30:08	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	893	68¢	$607	0x0e0ac8…
10-14 12:29:51	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x681e70…
10-14 12:29:27	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x580c94…
10-14 12:29:08	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x0b5dd7…
10-14 12:29:05	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x747e88…
10-14 12:27:56	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	212	10¢	$21	0xe8560c…
10-14 12:27:47	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xb15f75…
10-14 12:16:17	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x41f237…
10-14 11:33:01	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xff5371…
10-14 11:31:58	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	8	68¢	$6	0xf884bf…
10-14 11:31:53	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	192	68¢	$131	0x39377e…
10-14 11:31:29	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	156	68¢	$106	0x51eff2…
10-14 11:31:26	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	18	68¢	$12	0xfcb771…
10-14 11:31:26	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	222	68¢	$151	0x54776b…
10-14 10:22:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	79¢	$3,950	0xa14a74…
10-14 10:22:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,060	79¢	$2,418	0x363fac…
10-14 10:22:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,745	79¢	$2,959	0x21143a…
10-14 05:43:49	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x2ea9bb…
10-14 05:38:58	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	33	10¢	$3	0x969af2…
10-13 21:56:16	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0xbd9aea…
10-13 03:26:35	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	109	68¢	$74	0x710ef2…
10-13 03:26:29	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	106	68¢	$72	0xccb1e5…
10-12 11:47:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	84¢	$4,200	0x50d001…
10-12 11:45:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,000	84¢	$16,800	0xd75113…
09-30 15:20:59	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	96	95¢	$91	0xbc82ba…
09-30 14:45:47	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	59	90¢	$53	0x8de567…
09-30 14:37:35	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	1,814	95¢	$1,724	0x80c38e…
09-30 14:24:30	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	415	90¢	$374	0xe1c6b0…
09-30 13:37:32	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0xdaaeca…
09-30 13:37:17	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	81	95¢	$77	0xb80142…
09-30 12:12:59	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	1,339	92¢	$1,232	0x005e39…
09-30 12:02:59	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	118	95¢	$112	0x27f775…
09-30 12:02:45	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	82	95¢	$78	0xc185bc…
09-30 12:02:26	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	832	95¢	$790	0x27d096…
09-30 11:55:48	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	1,215	92¢	$1,118	0x0e5f2f…
09-30 11:54:26	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	1,434	95¢	$1,362	0xe37cb8…
09-30 11:54:11	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	129	95¢	$123	0x619dc7…
09-30 11:23:00	will xauusd dip to 4100 in september 2026	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xcf48a3…
09-30 11:22:02	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x34339f…
09-30 10:26:56	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	39	92¢	$36	0x164262…
09-30 10:12:18	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0xfd807a…
09-30 10:12:08	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	969	92¢	$892	0x11672f…
09-30 09:19:02	will bitcoin dip to 78k september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	1,727	90¢	$1,555	0x4cb37e…
09-21 10:18:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9,986	46¢	$4,593	0xcf863b…
09-18 14:23:33	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,882	99¢	$4,817	0xca703a…
08-24 20:14:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 29?	No	BUY	660	26¢	$172	0xb82bf9…
08-24 20:11:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 29?	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x99a129…
08-24 20:11:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 29?	No	BUY	240	26¢	$62	0x7ea4b2…
08-21 21:27:18	bitcoin above 72k on august 28 2026	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xd2cc84…
08-21 20:55:55	bitcoin above 72k on august 28 2026	No	BUY	88	9¢	$8	0x019436…
08-21 17:02:12	bitcoin above 74k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	4,996	20¢	$999	0xd401c7…
08-21 15:23:27	bitcoin above 74k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x690d9e…
08-20 15:01:30	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	954	58¢	$549	0xbd710b…
08-20 15:01:12	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	536	58¢	$309	0x3b4c3d…
08-20 15:00:49	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x4fef8b…
08-20 14:18:13	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	No	BUY	490	58¢	$282	0x560a4e…
08-06 04:36:05	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xce0610…
08-05 20:12:08	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xaabe06…
08-05 19:07:23	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0x147f42…
08-05 17:18:08	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	180	90¢	$162	0xdc1526…
08-05 15:42:23	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	2,749	11¢	$313	0x5510d9…
08-05 15:34:32	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	65	11¢	$7	0x9fd894…
08-05 15:23:38	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xab006c…
08-05 15:23:26	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	109	11¢	$12	0x0fd205…
08-05 15:23:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0xed070b…
08-05 15:23:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	76	11¢	$9	0xe40454…
08-05 15:23:23	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x7e04a8…
08-05 15:23:23	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	500	11¢	$57	0x0b4cb7…
08-05 15:23:21	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	69	11¢	$8	0x6f9bbb…
08-05 15:23:21	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x4c9613…
08-05 15:23:21	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x2105c4…
08-05 15:11:50	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	32	11¢	$4	0x3d1dae…
08-05 15:11:45	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xc68630…
08-05 15:00:33	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	241	11¢	$28	0x901758…
08-05 14:48:11	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0xa958e9…
08-05 14:47:51	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x06d43a…
08-05 14:06:09	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	23	90¢	$21	0xb82586…
08-05 13:58:39	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	34	11¢	$4	0xad47eb…