Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$231

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

12.0%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

7,077

8,517 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$24.5K

$33.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$39

5 positions

First seen

2026-10-17

last 11-01 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

65% 9% -$243

Politics

19% 0% -$7

Tech

12% 0% $0

Sports

3% 0% -$12

Pop-Culture

1% 0% —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 3983 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	-59	-$16	28¢	$-16	-$1	11-01 12:54
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+178	$16	8¢	$13	-$3	11-01 13:43
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+100	$21	8¢	$9	-$13	10-31 14:27
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+33	$1	2¢	$1	$0	10-31 07:47
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$3	2¢	$0	-$3	10-31 08:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	206	$1.1K	5,372	5,372	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	46	$917	1,997	1,997	+0	open	—	11-01 13:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	27	$795	1,311	1,311	+0	open	—	11-01 13:33
Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	22	$745	2,068	2,068	+0	open	—	11-01 13:15
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	15	$670	3,134	3,134	+0	open	—	11-01 08:53
Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?	24	$557	1,699	1,347	+352	open	—	11-01 13:12
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	22	$392	1,172	1,172	+0	open	—	11-01 13:20
Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	26	$391	1,167	1,167	+0	open	—	11-01 15:24
Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	20	$357	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	11-01 17:34
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	8	$342	791	791	+0	open	—	11-01 13:15
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?	11	$340	442	442	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?	20	$332	1,163	1,163	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	13	$307	579	525	+53	open	—	11-01 01:24
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	20	$307	476	476	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	16	$294	502	561	-59	open	—	11-01 12:54
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	20	$288	825	825	+0	open	—	11-01 02:45
Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	11	$263	1,376	785	+592	open	—	10-30 10:56
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	23	$240	488	488	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	26	$238	700	700	+0	open	—	11-01 13:19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	33	$224	1,189	1,089	+100	open	—	10-31 14:27
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	11	$218	816	816	+0	open	—	10-31 12:55
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	15	$218	418	418	+0	open	—	11-01 14:49
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	8	$212	622	622	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?	39	$206	3,866	3,866	+0	open	—	11-01 02:46
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	166	$203	10,048	10,048	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	277	$197	10,663	10,663	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	26	$194	3,773	3,773	+0	open	—	11-01 02:44
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	19	$190	479	479	+0	open	—	11-01 14:49
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	49	$189	8,546	8,546	+0	open	—	11-01 13:16
Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026?	8	$187	1,290	1,290	+0	open	—	10-30 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 17:44:55	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x98f585…
11-01 17:44:40	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	46	9¢	$4	0xef132e…
11-01 17:34:28	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x2a35a5…
11-01 17:33:57	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x04678e…
11-01 17:33:51	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0xa16c15…
11-01 17:33:42	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x394cff…
11-01 17:25:43	Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x837f5f…
11-01 17:25:27	Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	77	1¢	$1	0x4c1f62…
11-01 17:21:49	Israel Election: Arab party and Likud in coalition?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0xe47e47…
11-01 17:20:40	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x417b2f…
11-01 17:20:21	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	24¢	$4	0x069a6a…
11-01 17:14:16	Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	42	1¢	$0	0xa50cfa…
11-01 17:13:48	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0xe252fa…
11-01 17:02:06	Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xb9ad23…
11-01 17:01:40	Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	46	0¢	$0	0x444107…
11-01 16:59:39	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	175	2¢	$4	0xc82569…
11-01 16:59:36	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xc726ee…
11-01 16:58:58	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	24	2¢	$1	0x041ed0…
11-01 16:58:55	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x70ee8e…
11-01 16:58:03	Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	221	4¢	$8	0xbe8f83…
11-01 16:54:13	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xf3e919…
11-01 16:52:28	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xcc4273…
11-01 16:50:58	Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xa13403…
11-01 16:50:42	Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027?	No	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x2050a0…
11-01 16:48:46	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0xa2bbd7…
11-01 16:46:24	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0xdee545…
11-01 16:46:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	5¢	$2	0xd60be4…
11-01 16:46:19	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xfed113…
11-01 16:42:21	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x42b6d1…
11-01 16:42:03	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	54	5¢	$3	0x1ba3c7…
11-01 16:41:28	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x24f41c…
11-01 16:31:42	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x72c4f2…
11-01 16:31:27	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x77a3a7…
11-01 16:27:24	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x216461…
11-01 16:26:25	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xf7c6ae…
11-01 16:24:33	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x7bd70e…
11-01 16:23:45	Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	No	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xaa78be…
11-01 16:15:13	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x6fe7ae…
11-01 16:14:34	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-08 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x4bb849…
11-01 16:14:10	Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xe2381a…
11-01 16:13:55	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-08 House seat?	Yes	SELL	47	5¢	$2	0x7813e5…
11-01 16:10:09	Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x9e5442…
11-01 16:09:57	Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	SELL	29	5¢	$1	0xa9c341…
11-01 16:09:25	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xca9d53…
11-01 16:09:07	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	128	5¢	$6	0xc50b56…
11-01 16:04:40	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x385cbc…
11-01 16:04:33	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x6e3e16…
11-01 16:04:00	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x894fa4…
11-01 16:04:00	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0x2c0000…
11-01 16:03:58	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x407327…
11-01 16:03:51	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x883a59…
11-01 16:03:48	Will the ECB decrease the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	39	4¢	$2	0x9d12bb…
11-01 16:01:10	Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xfa9ad4…
11-01 16:00:46	Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	104	5¢	$5	0xf799ac…
11-01 15:54:30	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat?	No	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x0e5c51…
11-01 15:54:16	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat?	No	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0xfa2395…
11-01 15:53:52	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	22	3¢	$1	0x7cbc6c…
11-01 15:49:34	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x10c0e8…
11-01 15:46:22	Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat?	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x8e8ab7…
11-01 15:46:06	Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat?	No	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xae211d…
11-01 15:45:13	Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?	No	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xd8981d…
11-01 15:44:52	Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?	No	SELL	76	2¢	$2	0xc939ba…
11-01 15:44:31	Will Anthropic IPO on November 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x935ba2…
11-01 15:43:54	Will Anthropic IPO on November 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	4¢	$2	0xa5562b…
11-01 15:43:52	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x6c5a83…
11-01 15:41:30	Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?	No	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x8852ad…
11-01 15:40:06	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xf36aa3…
11-01 15:35:48	Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?	No	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0x8c36ae…
11-01 15:33:51	Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?	No	SELL	76	2¢	$2	0xc6ed34…
11-01 15:28:52	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	111	5¢	$6	0x12dc59…
11-01 15:24:03	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	160	5¢	$7	0x321f09…
11-01 15:22:36	Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x945529…
11-01 15:14:55	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	176	4¢	$7	0xd441b6…
11-01 15:05:58	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x73cf9e…
11-01 15:05:46	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	SELL	46	16¢	$7	0xb88564…
11-01 15:00:58	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xc94270…
11-01 15:00:39	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	24¢	$10	0x449940…
11-01 15:00:36	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xe79f8f…
11-01 15:00:15	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	318	1¢	$4	0xaac0b3…
11-01 14:51:49	Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	18	2¢	$0	0xd792b6…
11-01 14:49:40	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	0	20¢	$0	0xe4f517…
11-01 14:49:18	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x12de7b…
11-01 14:49:12	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0xa0a920…
11-01 14:48:39	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	15¢	$3	0x8a380d…
11-01 14:48:31	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$1	0x4b7358…
11-01 14:42:07	Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x9d94d2…
11-01 14:41:55	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$1	0x92c817…
11-01 14:40:12	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0x4104bd…
11-01 14:39:36	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xe61d46…
11-01 14:37:42	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xbc179d…
11-01 14:36:49	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-10 House seat?	Yes	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0x5db0fa…
11-01 14:34:49	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	SELL	16	19¢	$3	0x2fd9f0…
11-01 14:34:28	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	25¢	$27	0xc50e97…
11-01 14:34:12	Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	27	2¢	$1	0xdd720b…
11-01 14:33:55	Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0xf96c03…
11-01 14:33:55	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat?	No	SELL	54	1¢	$1	0x3ad2f3…
11-01 14:30:37	Will Melania Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x626572…
11-01 14:29:22	NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 adjusted gross margin 73% to 75%?	No	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x43ffad…
11-01 14:29:10	NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 adjusted gross margin 73% to 75%?	No	SELL	19	19¢	$4	0x4002f4…
11-01 14:25:06	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0x0e8e1f…