Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1.24K

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

10.7%

Resolved (90d)

221

Trades (90d)

8,700

8,700 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$33.5K

$33.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$137

16 positions

First seen

2026-10-17

last 11-04 12:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

65% 11% -$670

Politics

19% 15% -$511

Tech

12% 0% $0

Sports

3% 0% -$16

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$35

Crypto

0% 0% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 3983 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	-165	-$44	34¢	$-55	-$11	11-01 21:52
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	+394	$13	6¢	$25	+$12	10-30 09:53
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	No	+115	$6	16¢	$18	+$12	11-02 16:45
Will Ali G be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Yes	+744	$13	2¢	$12	$0	10-30 08:01
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	No	+201	$12	6¢	$12	+$0	10-30 16:12
Will Monica Crowley be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	+150	$8	4¢	$6	-$1	10-30 08:04
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	+58	$4	8¢	$5	+$0	10-31 13:24
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+84	$12	3¢	$3	-$10	11-02 22:41
Will Jared Goff lead the NFL in completion percentage for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	+17	$3	4¢	$1	-$2	10-22 01:59
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+33	$1	1¢	$0	$0	10-31 07:47
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 11 and January 17, 2027?	Yes	+17	$20	0¢	$0	-$20	11-02 08:48
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?	Yes	+0	$6	43¢	$0	-$6	11-01 09:29
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+0	$16	13¢	$0	-$16	11-01 02:45
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+0	-$39	13¢	$0	+$39	10-31 12:55
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$3	6¢	$0	-$3	10-31 08:29
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	Yes	+0	$20	3¢	$0	-$20	10-31 04:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	206	$1.1K	5,372	5,372	+0	No	-$1	11-01 13:34
Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	46	$917	1,997	1,997	+0	open	—	11-01 13:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	27	$795	1,311	1,311	+0	open	—	11-01 13:33
Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	22	$745	2,068	2,068	+0	open	—	11-01 13:15
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	15	$670	3,134	3,134	+0	open	—	11-01 08:53
Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?	25	$614	1,699	1,699	+0	open	—	11-01 21:50
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	22	$392	1,172	1,172	+0	open	—	11-01 13:20
Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	26	$391	1,167	1,167	+0	open	—	11-01 15:24
Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?	20	$357	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	-$83	11-01 17:34
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	8	$342	791	791	+0	open	—	11-01 13:15
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?	11	$340	442	442	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?	20	$332	1,163	1,163	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	17	$323	502	667	-165	open	—	11-01 21:52
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	16	$320	579	579	+0	open	—	11-02 06:17
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	20	$307	476	476	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	20	$288	825	825	+0	open	—	11-01 02:45
Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	13	$264	1,376	1,376	+0	open	—	11-02 20:06
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	23	$240	488	488	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	26	$238	700	700	+0	open	—	11-01 13:19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	36	$232	1,189	1,189	+0	open	—	11-02 15:22
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	11	$218	816	816	+0	open	—	10-31 12:55
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	15	$218	418	418	+0	open	—	11-01 14:49
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	8	$212	622	622	+0	open	—	11-01 13:34
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?	39	$206	3,866	3,866	+0	No	-$16	11-01 02:46
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	166	$203	10,048	10,048	+0	No	-$2	11-01 13:34
Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	277	$197	10,663	10,663	+0	No	+$21	11-01 13:34
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	26	$194	3,773	3,773	+0	No	-$85	11-01 02:44
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	19	$190	479	479	+0	open	—	11-01 14:49
Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	49	$189	8,546	8,546	+0	No	-$13	11-01 13:16
will ukraine re enter oleshky by november 30 2026	8	$187	1,290	1,290	+0	open	—	10-30 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 12:06:22	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	No	SELL	65	8¢	$5	0xee4119…
11-04 12:06:19	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	No	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x21c898…
11-04 07:04:04	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	No	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x9a0324…
11-02 23:02:51	Will “Somewhere Over Laredo” by Lainey Wilson win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?	Yes	SELL	94	8¢	$8	0x9b9b1d…
11-02 22:41:45	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	94	4¢	$4	0xc3ac82…
11-02 22:11:00	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xcdee99…
11-02 22:10:58	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x9bb3f6…
11-02 22:10:57	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xac9545…
11-02 22:10:55	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x7517cf…
11-02 22:10:54	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x6f2af9…
11-02 22:10:52	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x274239…
11-02 22:10:51	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x8f83b9…
11-02 22:10:49	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x68af08…
11-02 22:10:49	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x3ea452…
11-02 22:10:49	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x22d818…
11-02 22:07:16	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xa1545f…
11-02 22:07:06	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x3dc97b…
11-02 22:07:06	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x037557…
11-02 22:07:04	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x2a33d6…
11-02 21:33:36	Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x2ac924…
11-02 21:33:25	Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	97	1¢	$1	0x2b2f30…
11-02 21:21:34	Israel Election: Arab party and Likud in coalition?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xa13048…
11-02 21:21:24	Israel Election: Arab party and Likud in coalition?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xbad905…
11-02 21:21:22	Israel Election: Arab party and Likud in coalition?	Yes	SELL	161	3¢	$5	0xbc8ebc…
11-02 20:37:06	Will Noam be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0x5b9281…
11-02 20:36:57	Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xf09437…
11-02 20:36:52	Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$1	0x8625ac…
11-02 20:36:36	Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	83	1¢	$1	0x1906dc…
11-02 20:06:36	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xad3afe…
11-02 20:05:03	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	591	0¢	$1	0xfe3497…
11-02 20:04:58	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x8fb33a…
11-02 20:04:46	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	65	1¢	$1	0xfde500…
11-02 19:59:21	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0xbe969a…
11-02 18:33:30	Will the ECB decrease the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	208	1¢	$2	0x72bd8b…
11-02 16:57:39	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x19c3cf…
11-02 16:57:33	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	17	19¢	$3	0x8f3783…
11-02 16:45:01	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xccea83…
11-02 16:08:36	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xe3a853…
11-02 16:08:28	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	88	1¢	$1	0x28cd73…
11-02 15:58:10	Israel Election: Arab party and Likud in coalition?	Yes	SELL	92	3¢	$3	0x362b8a…
11-02 15:22:06	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x763a8e…
11-02 15:21:42	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	57	8¢	$5	0x2ce1d9…
11-02 15:20:49	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	43	8¢	$3	0xcdcb99…
11-02 15:10:01	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	134	2¢	$3	0xfffea5…
11-02 15:00:34	Will Podemos win the most seats in Huesca in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x8a05d7…
11-02 15:00:12	Will Sentinels make a roster change by December?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x570540…
11-02 15:00:12	Will Podemos win the most seats in Huesca in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0x429499…
11-02 15:00:09	Will Sentinels make a roster change by December?	Yes	SELL	16	37¢	$6	0xf4c4e1…
11-02 14:59:49	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x54f90f…
11-02 14:59:30	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x010516…
11-02 14:42:16	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0x02846f…
11-02 12:35:57	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	No	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x542085…
11-02 12:35:06	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	No	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x385c5d…
11-02 10:17:51	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x4f7aaf…
11-02 09:09:15	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x80f7aa…
11-02 09:09:03	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	0¢	$0	0xe2833e…
11-02 08:50:22	Will JW Johnson advance to the Quarterfinals in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x19738b…
11-02 08:48:28	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 11 and January 17, 2027?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0x94774a…
11-02 08:46:58	Will Noam be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x982c82…
11-02 07:57:03	Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xd617fa…
11-02 07:57:00	Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	777	3¢	$24	0x0149ed…
11-02 07:41:46	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting?	No	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x5a2ecc…
11-02 07:41:24	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x95df09…
11-02 07:41:12	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting?	No	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x918fea…
11-02 07:13:45	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x4c38e6…
11-02 07:13:37	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?	Yes	SELL	26	30¢	$8	0xdb1509…
11-02 07:04:55	Will El Cuerpo de Cristo win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xfd87f7…
11-02 07:04:49	Will El Cuerpo de Cristo win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	34	0¢	$0	0xf967af…
11-02 06:56:34	Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 3-4 seats?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x118050…
11-02 06:17:34	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0xff5c98…
11-02 06:17:24	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	23	24¢	$5	0x937307…
11-02 06:01:06	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	24¢	$7	0xdfad52…
11-02 05:54:03	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-10 House seat?	Yes	SELL	52	5¢	$2	0x77bce3…
11-02 05:10:03	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xf12112…
11-02 05:09:54	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	43	11¢	$5	0x2afda2…
11-02 05:09:52	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0x1d3aec…
11-02 04:14:36	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xb70957…
11-02 03:45:25	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	No	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x8dbe34…
11-02 03:45:22	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	No	SELL	202	0¢	$1	0x76c2f4…
11-02 03:40:48	Will Sahra Dennehy advance to the Semifinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x7b120a…
11-02 03:22:39	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x5c41d7…
11-02 03:22:30	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between January 4 and January 10, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xadc003…
11-02 03:22:18	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0x91f4fc…
11-02 03:18:06	Will Arch Manning be the 2026 D1 Passing Yards Leader?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xd7b2c4…
11-02 02:52:22	Will God is Shy win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xe31e82…
11-02 02:52:01	Will God is Shy win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	47	10¢	$5	0x738e74…
11-02 02:48:00	Will Arch Manning be the 2026 D1 Passing Yards Leader?	Yes	SELL	92	1¢	$1	0xaef9fd…
11-02 01:51:40	Will Timo Meier record 50+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$0	0x1b2f9d…
11-02 01:48:00	Will God is Shy win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	41	10¢	$4	0x8f837f…
11-02 01:37:03	Will the Republican Party win the FL-24 House seat?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x2e669c…
11-02 01:15:43	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x5faf2e…
11-02 01:15:27	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	127	8¢	$10	0x74228b…
11-02 01:10:34	Will Ian Happ win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?	No	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x7389c1…
11-02 00:34:27	Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x0f97a6…
11-02 00:34:12	Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	654	0¢	$3	0xc303a4…
11-02 00:09:42	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0x2e97d0…
11-02 00:01:57	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x2d9559…
11-02 00:01:18	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x366454…
11-01 23:58:06	Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x07b211…
11-01 23:53:25	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xe183b4…