Fragrant-Handsaw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$51.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$28.1K

Hit rate

31.1%

Resolved

Trades

481

lifetime

Volume

$309.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$644

Open exposure

$26.0K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 10-19 09:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Politics

76% 53% -$37,276

Other

24% 0% -$13,772

Sports

0% 0% -$165

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-577,437	$3,582	3¢	$-17323	-$20,906	08-02 12:41
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+364,015	$9,686	1¢	$5.1K	-$4,590	10-19 09:00
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+396,745	$6,167	1¢	$3.6K	-$2,596	09-24 12:22
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-7,516	-$38	0¢	$-26	+$11	08-02 12:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$66.0K	81,846	81,846	+0	No	-$6,008	09-10 12:48
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	15	$41.0K	52,432	52,432	+0	Yes	-$18,035	03-01 18:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	48	$37.6K	188,319	0	+188,319	No	-$37,591	03-01 21:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	8	$34.2K	26,976	29,976	-3,000	No	+$12,470	04-26 16:18
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	5	$25.6K	112,370	0	+112,370	Yes	-$25,600	04-30 10:24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	3	$24.1K	16,447	16,447	+0	No	+$8,308	04-26 16:04
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	3	$18.3K	37,636	0	+37,636	Yes	+$19,342	02-27 21:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	60	$13.2K	42,259	0	+42,259	No	-$13,207	03-02 21:10
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	55	$9.7K	364,415	400	+364,015	open	—	10-19 09:00
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	181	$8.2K	99,890	677,327	-577,437	open	—	08-02 12:41
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	60	$6.4K	405,907	9,162	+396,745	open	—	09-24 12:22
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	3	$5.2K	10,008	0	+10,008	No	-$5,164	05-16 15:29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	2	$2.9K	1,954	1,954	+0	No	+$946	04-29 11:39
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	3	$2.8K	14,772	0	+14,772	No	+$11,972	04-21 13:56
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	1	$2.6K	10,099	0	+10,099	No	-$2,600	05-16 15:29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$2.6K	1,603	1,603	+0	No	+$595	04-26 09:55
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	4	$2.2K	24,244	24,244	+0	No	-$1,758	02-25 15:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	1	$1.5K	4,703	0	+4,703	No	+$3,178	04-21 13:26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	2	$1.4K	917	917	+0	No	+$371	04-26 16:19
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$1000	16,667	0	+16,667	No	-$1,000	02-22 10:41
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	3	$833	33,333	33,333	+0	open	—	08-02 12:41
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	2	$750	7,500	0	+7,500	No	-$750	02-22 10:41
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$740	11,318	11,318	+0	open	—	05-02 10:43
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	4	$484	4,034	0	+4,034	No	+$3,550	04-21 14:21
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$135	763	0	+763	No	-$135	05-14 20:18
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	2	$133	209	209	+0	No	-$67	03-01 18:49
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$38	0	7,516	-7,516	open	—	08-02 12:40
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$30	577	0	+577	No	-$30	05-05 14:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 09:00:42	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	4,181	2¢	$71	0xb14e87…
09-24 12:22:16	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2,332	1¢	$23	0x98e814…
09-15 12:31:19	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$5	0xdb0458…
09-13 11:32:30	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	10,542	1¢	$79	0xd9accf…
09-10 12:48:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	81,846	37¢	$30,017	0x67d6a1…
09-03 16:35:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	92	58¢	$53	0x327409…
09-01 09:30:27	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	3,025	1¢	$32	0xfef399…
08-31 21:36:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	481	44¢	$212	0x0284c2…
08-31 21:28:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	81,273	44¢	$35,760	0x14c6a9…
08-31 21:21:55	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	26,842	1¢	$322	0xd153a9…
08-31 21:21:25	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1,019	1¢	$10	0x47e922…
08-31 21:21:10	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	16,667	1¢	$150	0x376994…
08-20 07:54:28	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	6,186	2¢	$100	0x1d6485…
08-20 07:54:10	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	3,996	2¢	$60	0x912160…
08-20 07:42:33	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	17,585	1¢	$200	0xc75ab7…
08-13 11:50:18	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	9,091	2¢	$200	0xbf13ad…
08-13 11:49:51	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2,727	2¢	$60	0x52374c…
08-13 11:49:10	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	23,488	2¢	$376	0x4cc4f1…
08-12 20:03:01	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	59,396	2¢	$1,000	0x25f93b…
08-12 20:02:48	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	20,316	2¢	$500	0x7acc92…
08-05 21:59:26	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	94,765	2¢	$2,000	0xcc2e54…
08-05 21:48:18	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	156	1¢	$2	0xf2f3a3…
08-05 14:52:20	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	85	1¢	$1	0x5d93dd…
08-05 14:45:00	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0x39cc39…
08-05 00:18:30	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	395	1¢	$6	0xeb8c88…
08-04 19:02:09	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x00c6dd…
08-04 18:55:33	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x2a2338…
08-04 18:48:08	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x7fe3aa…
08-04 18:45:56	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x49afbd…
08-04 18:43:08	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x4ab28a…
08-04 18:42:03	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xaab365…
08-04 17:32:08	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xd06af9…
08-04 17:30:51	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x58fad0…
08-04 17:26:26	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xc2f876…
08-04 17:11:12	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x949464…
08-04 16:50:18	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xf708a5…
08-04 16:46:50	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x412149…
08-04 16:12:27	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xeb7963…
08-04 15:42:02	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xbcf626…
08-04 15:31:45	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x50a5f8…
08-04 15:28:17	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xf81e3a…
08-04 15:26:12	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xd4fb2e…
08-04 15:22:18	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x9b1e2c…
08-04 15:19:42	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x7b6122…
08-04 15:12:08	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xc6fb98…
08-04 15:07:47	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0xcce45f…
08-04 15:02:59	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x3826f9…
08-04 15:02:56	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xbedfe5…
08-04 14:57:33	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xbfcde4…
08-04 14:54:21	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x62d985…
08-04 14:51:00	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0xdef4e7…
08-04 14:50:24	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xf66e89…
08-04 14:39:02	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xf4c5b9…
08-04 14:37:00	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x151275…
08-04 14:36:09	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x409980…
08-04 14:32:36	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x13da89…
08-04 14:32:30	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xd5d073…
08-04 14:31:38	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbf10e8…
08-04 14:28:32	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xc5d284…
08-04 10:55:12	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$13	0x4fc7f5…
08-04 10:54:48	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,323	1¢	$17	0xf2bb5f…
08-04 10:54:45	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$13	0x9212c3…
08-04 10:54:23	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,323	1¢	$16	0x49ad50…
08-04 10:52:39	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x176a22…
08-04 10:52:03	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	2,400	1¢	$33	0xe42d4a…
08-04 10:51:12	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0xa1e686…
08-04 10:50:41	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	710	2¢	$11	0xb36a64…
08-02 12:44:38	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1,053	2¢	$20	0x6b0a02…
08-02 12:43:17	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	175,036	1¢	$2,387	0x1e7121…
08-02 12:41:27	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	33,333	1¢	$233	0x58999a…
08-02 12:41:06	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	495,155	0¢	$1,087	0xf9ac3a…
08-02 12:41:06	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	182,072	1¢	$1,198	0x911774…
08-02 12:40:48	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	7,516	0¢	$38	0x0414a1…
07-18 15:52:16	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	3,999	2¢	$60	0xc9695b…
07-05 15:51:28	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	3,314	2¢	$70	0x22d657…
06-25 18:28:25	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	16,097	2¢	$300	0x647d68…
06-25 18:26:41	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	16,224	5¢	$760	0xa91682…
06-11 12:07:25	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	5,484	3¢	$170	0x2311de…
06-10 10:36:57	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	4,483	3¢	$130	0x24ba41…
06-08 19:20:42	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	667	3¢	$20	0x31ab5e…
06-02 15:35:57	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	21,429	3¢	$600	0x1ba6f0…
06-01 13:32:34	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	35,714	3¢	$1,000	0xf055d8…
05-31 17:37:28	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0x4bd5da…
05-31 17:18:44	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	64	6¢	$4	0x1ae886…
05-31 17:17:39	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	54	6¢	$3	0xc2d031…
05-31 16:52:50	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	43	6¢	$3	0x74df73…
05-31 16:46:41	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	39	6¢	$2	0xda1fa6…
05-31 15:26:48	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	51	6¢	$3	0xa377d3…
05-31 14:04:26	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x3e61f6…
05-31 13:39:40	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	52	6¢	$3	0x191783…
05-31 13:31:07	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	38	6¢	$2	0x0d3ca1…
05-31 13:29:55	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	143	6¢	$9	0x465108…
05-31 13:25:35	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x3db1ec…
05-31 13:17:28	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	56	6¢	$3	0x79c466…
05-31 13:04:15	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0xe6375b…
05-31 13:04:00	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	56	6¢	$3	0x1e56df…
05-31 13:03:07	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x2e24fb…
05-31 12:55:39	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x434e27…
05-31 12:45:55	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	700	6¢	$42	0xe2267b…
05-31 12:40:40	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	57	6¢	$3	0x504031…