Constant-Optimization — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

-$49

Hit rate

62.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,111

lifetime

Volume

$14.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$210

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 07-22 03:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

49% 25% $-3

Politics

47% 0% $-38

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?	No	+207	$134	58¢	$120	$-14	07-19 10:28
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	Yes	+173	$61	24¢	$41	$-20	07-21 16:30
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	+50	$16	26¢	$13	$-4	07-02 17:41
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?	Yes	-10	$-18	80¢	$-8	+$10	06-30 22:11
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?	No	+37	$18	20¢	$8	$-10	05-31 14:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+25	$6	30¢	$7	+$1	07-17 17:30
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	No	-5	$-9	77¢	$-4	+$5	06-21 02:49
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+40	$5	8¢	$3	$-1	07-02 17:31
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?	No	+5	$17	57¢	$3	$-14	06-02 14:12
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?	Yes	+5	$3	42¢	$2	$-1	06-06 13:53
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$2	10¢	$1	$-1	05-29 15:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	40	$1.3K	1,267	1,197	+70	open	—	05-15 23:17
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	31	$1.2K	1,128	770	+358	open	—	07-20 12:14
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	9	$582	451	451	+0	open	—	07-01 13:44
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	22	$548	481	486	-5	open	—	05-29 08:19
iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	25	$412	399	396	+3	open	—	07-18 01:24
iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	30	$363	634	587	+47	open	—	07-18 20:51
iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	15	$356	316	316	+0	open	—	07-19 18:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	18	$316	244	244	+0	open	—	05-25 11:35
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$314	171	171	+0	open	—	04-12 19:41
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	20	$293	441	441	+0	open	—	06-24 21:24
iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	37	$279	436	436	+0	open	—	07-21 11:21
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	15	$268	192	192	+0	open	—	07-08 20:50
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?	16	$250	353	141	+212	open	—	07-19 10:28
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	21	$245	196	196	+0	open	—	05-28 17:26
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	22	$244	1,128	745	+383	open	—	07-22 08:04
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 btts	4	$240	132	132	+0	open	—	07-02 20:57
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	15	$201	141	186	-45	open	—	05-28 17:58
iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	30	$183	977	977	+0	open	—	07-19 14:14
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	16	$171	238	39	+199	open	—	07-19 16:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$170	105	100	+5	open	—	04-26 12:28
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	5	$164	250	250	+0	open	—	07-13 02:44
Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	6	$162	97	108	-11	open	—	06-08 03:20
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	11	$152	1,030	595	+435	open	—	06-21 15:01
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27?	13	$150	197	195	+2	open	—	04-26 23:55
will marco rubio attend nato summit	8	$148	97	97	+0	open	—	06-06 13:53
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	8	$144	110	110	+0	open	—	04-23 02:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	4	$139	90	90	+0	open	—	04-25 16:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$128	150	150	+0	open	—	05-10 20:06
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?	5	$126	78	78	+0	open	—	04-24 20:27
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	9	$116	131	131	+0	open	—	07-07 19:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 09:03:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x513d91…
07-22 08:58:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x704511…
07-22 08:58:12	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x9f1176…
07-22 08:58:03	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	8	31¢	$3	0x6afb38…
07-22 08:57:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x66f639…
07-22 08:57:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xb1cd58…
07-22 08:04:36	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xc8e9d9…
07-22 07:34:57	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x38c82a…
07-22 07:34:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x0eafe5…
07-22 07:28:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0x525fae…
07-22 07:28:15	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	No	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0xeee7fc…
07-22 03:41:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xbb4c38…
07-22 02:06:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	41	25¢	$10	0x32d1d7…
07-22 01:00:10	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	No	SELL	133	9¢	$12	0xab236d…
07-22 00:53:12	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	28	28¢	$8	0x483944…
07-22 00:37:27	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x52e44f…
07-22 00:35:18	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xf24ba2…
07-21 21:36:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x07d7f3…
07-21 21:36:03	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x2dbec8…
07-21 21:30:27	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x42dcda…
07-21 21:29:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	8	19¢	$1	0xf2ff36…
07-21 20:54:57	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x84fd88…
07-21 20:54:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x9022c1…
07-21 19:03:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0x01780d…
07-21 16:30:00	Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	25¢	$5	0x7ffae8…
07-21 16:26:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0xec06f3…
07-21 15:37:12	world cup finals coin toss result 20260716230203068	Argentina	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x0f3b71…
07-21 15:03:43	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	No	BUY	53	14¢	$7	0xd3496e…
07-21 15:00:01	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	No	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0xa827c1…
07-21 14:59:42	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xbc68b9…
07-21 14:39:06	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x561bd5…
07-21 14:38:30	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0x5ed3d6…
07-21 11:21:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x9c59d4…
07-21 08:28:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xa8c1f2…
07-21 05:09:27	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0x84c1b9…
07-21 02:29:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	45	55¢	$25	0xaa14ae…
07-21 01:59:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	17	27¢	$4	0xec724d…
07-20 23:19:13	will trump speak to andy burnham in july 20260720151658724	No	BUY	95	31¢	$29	0x3d829b…
07-20 23:18:54	will trump speak to andy burnham in july 20260720151658724	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xdfdde3…
07-20 20:48:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xee76a6…
07-20 20:07:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xcdf0e6…
07-20 20:07:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	11	66¢	$7	0xd3c42a…
07-20 20:07:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0x177d08…
07-20 20:07:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0xef4e64…
07-20 19:36:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	46	33¢	$15	0x715384…
07-20 19:16:12	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb14470…
07-20 17:28:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x44aa82…
07-20 16:38:40	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x48c36a…
07-20 16:34:12	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xd7af6e…
07-20 15:54:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xd410cb…
07-20 15:47:43	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	23	29¢	$7	0xcdf0fd…
07-20 15:40:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x8bc533…
07-20 14:30:52	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	47	23¢	$11	0x334804…
07-20 14:30:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x22aa8a…
07-20 14:30:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	26	22¢	$6	0x3d391b…
07-20 14:23:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	96	25¢	$24	0x69bce4…
07-20 14:17:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xd4d1df…
07-20 14:09:33	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	24	44¢	$11	0x2d4c4c…
07-20 13:58:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x85705b…
07-20 13:57:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x943cf0…
07-20 13:56:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x22f46e…
07-20 13:53:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	72	40¢	$29	0xdcdbfe…
07-20 13:49:24	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	13	41¢	$5	0x9f0ea0…
07-20 13:49:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	13	42¢	$6	0x84666c…
07-20 13:47:27	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0x78cfa3…
07-20 13:46:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	48	58¢	$28	0xd70d1a…
07-20 12:21:07	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xd89394…
07-20 12:14:54	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	28	77¢	$22	0x5eb37a…
07-20 12:09:24	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xb2cd5d…
07-20 10:31:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x57e571…
07-20 10:29:03	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	54	62¢	$34	0x95bd94…
07-20 10:01:30	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	BUY	60	49¢	$30	0x7c8b13…
07-20 09:45:07	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	36	77¢	$28	0x300b78…
07-20 09:19:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	16	28¢	$4	0x3bd4ed…
07-20 09:19:39	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	45	23¢	$10	0x344e87…
07-19 18:35:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x7f882b…
07-19 18:33:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	No	SELL	139	96¢	$133	0xd66727…
07-19 16:52:25	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	36	79¢	$29	0x15d10b…
07-19 16:11:24	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x60492f…
07-19 14:44:10	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xe430b2…
07-19 14:41:15	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x2b4cea…
07-19 14:14:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	SELL	257	7¢	$17	0x31ea8d…
07-19 14:07:45	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x4688d4…
07-19 14:06:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	87	9¢	$8	0x24bea9…
07-19 14:02:55	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xcca430…
07-19 13:23:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0xc6e9c8…
07-19 13:20:39	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x71915a…
07-19 13:20:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	21	7¢	$2	0xcd8842…
07-19 13:20:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	34	7¢	$2	0x31b676…
07-19 13:16:01	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	SELL	720	4¢	$31	0xc0f825…
07-19 13:08:57	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x657d18…
07-19 12:32:30	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x5a1e18…
07-19 12:32:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3ac606…
07-19 12:31:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0x105204…
07-19 12:31:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	63	9¢	$6	0x93bd45…
07-19 12:29:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	89	9¢	$8	0x4098d8…
07-19 12:28:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	13	9¢	$1	0x6fc157…
07-19 11:15:24	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xb04f4d…
07-19 11:15:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	28	19¢	$5	0xceb282…
07-19 11:15:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	128	19¢	$24	0x4379f5…