Squeaky-Polyp 0x7e1d3c…d44d41 Create alert
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L (7d)
+$455
Unrealized P&L
+$291
Hit rate
89.0%
Resolved (7d)
24
Trades (7d)
143
3,334 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$2.83K
$161.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$48
Open exposure
$2.03K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 11-07 22:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 230 days
Categories
Other
48% 57% +$2,274
Tech
19% 56% +$831
Politics
16% 74% +$83
Sports
9% 79% +$115
Crypto
8% 83% +$351
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026? No +556 $450 98¢ $544 +$94 11-06 01:16
Gemini Carbon released by November 9, 2026? No +500 $432 95¢ $476 +$44 11-05 03:16
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +470 $53 60¢ $282 +$229 11-02 02:24
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) be released on November 7, 2026? No +227 $206 100¢ $226 +$20 11-01 02:20
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 8, 2026? No +100 $85 100¢ $100 +$15 11-05 11:44
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026? No +170 $121 57¢ $98 -$23 11-07 07:04
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +83 -$21 54¢ $45 +$65 11-03 20:10
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +50 $11 87¢ $44 +$32 09-12 16:23
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 10, 2026? Yes +120 $6 31¢ $37 +$31 11-01 22:04
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? No +46 $32 72¢ $33 +$1 11-05 22:50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +100 $36 30¢ $30 -$6 11-03 07:14
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026? Yes +634 $10 4¢ $27 +$17 11-03 18:37
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 15, 2026? No +21 $21 100¢ $21 +$0 10-29 03:39
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +120 $87 12¢ $14 -$72 09-13 02:07
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%? Yes +120 $20 8¢ $9 -$11 10-31 15:08
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026? Yes +396 $127 2¢ $9 -$119 11-05 16:09
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027? Yes +42 $3 16¢ $7 +$4 11-05 03:17
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027? Yes +20 $2 24¢ $5 +$3 11-05 20:10
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of January 2027? Yes +15 $2 32¢ $5 +$3 11-01 20:39
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026? Yes +220 $11 2¢ $4 -$6 10-26 20:16
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027? Yes +10 $1 34¢ $3 +$3 11-02 13:19
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +30 $14 10¢ $3 -$11 10-16 02:59
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026? Yes +20 $1 14¢ $3 +$2 10-22 02:21
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes +200 $2 1¢ $2 $0 10-14 12:55
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%? Yes +110 $8 2¢ $2 -$6 11-07 16:53
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027? Yes +5 $0 20¢ $1 +$1 11-01 22:59
Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026? No +20 $29 3¢ $1 -$28 10-28 17:28
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? Yes +6 $0 8¢ $0 +$0 09-20 02:03
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +100 -$21 0¢ $0 +$21 10-13 04:31
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%? Yes +100 $14 0¢ $0 -$14 11-04 04:22