Breakable-Coincidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.58K

Unrealized P&L

-$549

Hit rate

95.8%

Resolved

Trades

323

lifetime

Volume

$89.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$277

Open exposure

$1.97K

1 position

First seen

2026-02-07

last 11-06 06:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

70% 100% +$777

Politics

16% 100% +$426

Sports

9% 67% +$1,093

Crypto

5% 100% +$288

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No		-2,072	-$1,419	95¢	$-1968	-$549	06-01 17:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	14	$5.7K	3,472	3,472	+0	Yes	+$356	06-10 20:16
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	56	$4.7K	3,351	3,351	+0	No	+$70	05-27 16:23
Fed rate hike in 2026?	15	$4.5K	3,910	3,910	+0	Yes	+$97	06-20 16:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	43	$4.1K	2,719	2,719	+0	No	+$544	05-18 07:09
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3.6K	2,022	2,022	+0	No	-$2	05-06 08:29
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$3.4K	1,735	1,735	+0	Yes	+$71	03-31 20:44
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$3.1K	3,703	0	+3,703	No	+$641	06-11 09:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	18	$3.0K	1,498	3,570	-2,072	open	—	06-01 17:10
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?	3	$2.9K	1,471	1,471	+0	No	+$6	02-26 23:27
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	7	$2.1K	1,065	1,065	+0	No	+$1	11-05 11:22
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,021	1,021	+0	No	+$1	10-23 07:32
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$1.5K	731	731	+0	No	+$2	10-27 07:05
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	2	$1.5K	1,670	0	+1,670	Yes	+$217	02-27 10:15
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 18?	7	$1.2K	925	273	+652	No	+$1	08-17 14:29
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	1	$1.1K	1,064	0	+1,064	No	+$2	11-06 06:15
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,036	0	+1,036	No	+$2	10-29 07:36
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,034	0	+1,034	No	+$2	10-28 09:32
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,032	0	+1,032	No	+$2	10-27 07:10
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,024	0	+1,024	No	+$3	10-23 07:33
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,019	0	+1,019	No	+$1	10-20 05:48
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,018	0	+1,018	No	+$1	10-16 06:30
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 15?	1	$1.0K	1,017	0	+1,017	Yes	+$1	10-15 10:43
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,016	0	+1,016	No	+$1	10-14 08:49
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 18?	1	$1.0K	1,009	0	+1,009	Yes	+$1	09-18 08:30
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C or higher on September 12?	1	$1.0K	1,006	0	+1,006	No	+$1	09-11 07:53
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	2	$994	500	500	+0	No	+$5	11-01 23:12
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?	5	$992	993	0	+993	No	+$1	09-01 15:38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 30?	1	$989	992	0	+992	No	+$3	08-29 13:29
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 27?	1	$989	990	0	+990	No	+$1	08-27 08:11
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	5	$988	500	500	+0	No	+$10	11-04 06:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 06:15:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1,064	100¢	$1,062	0xffe088…
11-05 11:22:48	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	1,006	100¢	$1,004	0xbc7141…
11-05 10:57:34	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x871a96…
11-05 10:04:10	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x640aad…
11-05 09:40:16	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x377045…
11-05 09:09:45	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x7739ad…
11-05 09:09:04	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x7d9315…
11-04 06:31:31	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1,065	100¢	$1,062	0x8af483…
11-04 06:30:18	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0xd5ad4c…
11-03 06:10:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	214	99¢	$212	0x9c076c…
11-03 06:09:33	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	161	99¢	$160	0x3fdced…
11-03 06:09:31	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xb3a540…
11-03 06:09:04	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xe09f33…
11-03 06:08:58	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	106	99¢	$105	0x2cccaa…
11-03 06:08:55	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x946ba9…
11-02 06:08:55	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0x7b7fdf…
11-02 06:08:31	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x83034e…
11-02 06:07:21	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x104f88…
11-02 06:07:12	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x7d8485…
11-02 06:06:27	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	243	99¢	$240	0x5259a2…
11-01 23:12:07	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0x37e428…
11-01 09:25:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xb0bdb8…
11-01 09:24:52	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x6867f7…
11-01 09:21:13	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xe75dd4…
11-01 09:19:39	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xe4ca9c…
11-01 09:19:33	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4e9abf…
11-01 09:19:27	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x97598f…
10-31 07:51:30	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	310	100¢	$309	0x85abee…
10-31 07:50:46	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	233	100¢	$232	0xdba98a…
10-31 07:48:07	Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xbcda5b…
10-29 07:36:34	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1,036	100¢	$1,034	0x76b409…
10-28 09:32:10	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,034	100¢	$1,032	0x062bd5…
10-27 07:10:18	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1,032	100¢	$1,030	0x722c01…
10-27 07:05:59	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	731	100¢	$730	0x80f9f9…
10-26 06:10:23	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	731	100¢	$728	0x0ed72e…
10-26 06:08:50	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x2515d3…
10-26 06:08:18	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0x85321e…
10-23 07:33:03	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,024	100¢	$1,021	0x07b028…
10-23 07:32:21	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	1,021	100¢	$1,020	0xc03b28…
10-22 06:46:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,021	100¢	$1,019	0x872645…
10-20 05:48:50	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,019	100¢	$1,018	0xc89079…
10-16 06:30:42	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,018	100¢	$1,017	0x3804d8…
10-15 10:43:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	1,017	100¢	$1,016	0x101efe…
10-14 08:49:49	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,016	100¢	$1,015	0x7f25f5…
10-13 03:23:14	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?	No	BUY	195	100¢	$195	0xd78c12…
10-13 03:22:51	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb52aac…
10-13 03:22:44	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9fb230…
10-13 03:22:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcd58c1…
10-13 03:22:23	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xaf305b…
10-13 03:22:20	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x666a3e…
10-13 03:22:15	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x76b232…
10-13 03:21:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	235	100¢	$235	0x2a7643…
10-13 03:21:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x14a82e…
10-13 03:21:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x5109c8…
10-13 03:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xe012cb…
10-13 03:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x531aad…
10-13 03:20:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb41d08…
10-13 03:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1bd52e…
10-13 03:20:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1f011e…
10-13 03:20:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc61cd2…
10-13 03:20:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe28a5e…
10-13 03:20:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 13?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xce1492…
10-10 08:37:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	417	100¢	$417	0x22483c…
10-10 08:33:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 10?	No	BUY	265	100¢	$265	0xaaa2eb…
10-10 08:33:51	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 10?	No	BUY	71	100¢	$70	0xe027be…
10-10 08:33:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	261	100¢	$260	0x833ad5…
09-23 09:16:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 23?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xbd3907…
09-23 09:10:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 23?	No	BUY	222	100¢	$222	0x9d170b…
09-23 09:10:17	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 23?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb86e10…
09-23 09:10:05	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x9fd87f…
09-23 09:09:55	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	468	100¢	$468	0x7c2992…
09-23 09:09:49	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0xddef6d…
09-21 06:57:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x9aa5a6…
09-21 06:57:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	505	100¢	$504	0xe1e6cc…
09-21 06:52:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	378	100¢	$378	0x9dab95…
09-18 08:30:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	1,009	100¢	$1,008	0x75fec2…
09-17 09:32:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 17?	No	BUY	690	100¢	$689	0x67e895…
09-17 09:28:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	176	100¢	$176	0x9101c2…
09-17 09:28:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0e04eb…
09-16 09:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on September 17?	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0xebdbf7…
09-16 08:58:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	872	100¢	$871	0x8f4af3…
09-14 08:39:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	263	100¢	$263	0x48a72a…
09-14 08:39:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 14?	No	BUY	744	100¢	$743	0x3670b6…
09-11 07:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C or higher on September 12?	No	BUY	1,006	100¢	$1,005	0xc9fd21…
09-08 05:59:15	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 9?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x7ca9f8…
09-08 05:58:37	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 9?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x91d552…
09-08 05:58:30	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 9?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0x247892…
09-08 05:58:10	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 9?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0x1bec40…
09-08 05:58:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 9?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x26234b…
09-08 05:57:33	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 9?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$172	0x81e7d9…
09-03 10:30:54	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 4?	No	BUY	122	98¢	$120	0xf62166…
09-03 10:30:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 4?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x866d26…
09-03 10:28:33	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 4?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$209	0xc3eb32…
09-03 10:28:13	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 4?	No	BUY	170	97¢	$165	0x952cd2…
09-01 15:38:21	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?	No	BUY	806	100¢	$805	0x7db405…
09-01 15:37:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x83e228…
09-01 15:37:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xae5de2…
09-01 15:37:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x34a652…
09-01 15:36:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xff2465…
08-29 13:29:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 30?	No	BUY	992	100¢	$989	0x96d399…