Grown-Lumberman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.2%

Resolved

Trades

109

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 06-22 20:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Politics

73% 41% -$1

Other

26% 25% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-22).

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	11	$130	118	118	+0	No	+$0	05-05 02:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$123	64	64	+0	No	+$0	05-09 10:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	9	$87	97	97	+0	No	$0	05-13 21:54
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	4	$86	44	44	+0	No	$0	05-12 18:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$46	24	24	+0	No	$0	05-10 05:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	4	$46	83	83	+0	No	+$0	05-15 09:13
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$45	23	23	+0	No	+$0	05-06 01:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	4	$43	45	45	+0	No	$0	05-18 09:52
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	2	$43	23	23	+0	open	—	05-13 15:48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	3	$42	22	22	+0	No	-$1	05-20 16:54
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$0	04-30 06:57
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	$0	04-27 03:30
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	3	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$0	05-12 12:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	5	$37	62	62	+0	No	+$0	06-03 02:11
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$37	63	63	+0	No	-$1	05-29 20:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	$0	06-03 15:53
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	5	$36	39	39	+0	No	$0	05-28 06:48
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$35	19	17	+2	No	+$0	05-26 10:57
iran closes its airspace by june 15	3	$34	19	19	+0	Yes	+$0	06-05 04:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$34	19	19	+0	No	$0	05-27 22:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	3	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	06-01 07:00
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	3	$33	17	17	+0	No	$0	05-27 03:34
will kanye west have a 1 hit in june	2	$17	18	0	+18	No	+$1	06-22 20:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	3	$6	54	54	+0	No	$0	05-21 00:58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	5	$4	37	36	+1	No	+$0	05-07 00:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$4	38	38	+0	No	$0	05-21 04:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$3	59	59	+0	No	$0	05-12 02:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	5	$2	51	51	+0	No	$0	05-28 12:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 20:35:16	will kanye west have a 1 hit in june	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0xb3cc30…
06-22 20:35:16	will kanye west have a 1 hit in june	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x2e7965…
06-05 04:11:19	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xba3b1b…
06-05 04:11:19	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x82a1f2…
06-05 00:02:16	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0x50a4aa…
06-03 15:53:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0x52da8d…
06-03 13:27:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x94f7b4…
06-03 02:11:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	3¢	$1	0x4b6180…
06-03 00:13:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0x882fdd…
06-01 21:55:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x6f4381…
06-01 21:55:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x04bde9…
06-01 19:33:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x6c84ed…
06-01 07:00:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x607edb…
06-01 07:00:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x4b6a46…
06-01 01:18:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0xc1bbf1…
05-29 20:52:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0xb5201f…
05-29 16:34:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0xe3d451…
05-28 12:00:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	SELL	51	2¢	$1	0x75b971…
05-28 11:59:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xe3e2ed…
05-28 11:59:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x63b83c…
05-28 11:59:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x635788…
05-28 11:59:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$1	0x45671b…
05-28 06:48:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	7¢	$2	0xfbea4e…
05-28 04:18:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$2	0x1a50e0…
05-27 22:39:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0xc8daf0…
05-27 20:55:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x56e339…
05-27 20:55:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x40625d…
05-27 11:09:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x66f9f9…
05-27 11:08:45	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x5b52a5…
05-27 10:59:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x8dfa59…
05-27 03:34:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x8f7568…
05-27 03:34:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x43cea4…
05-26 23:37:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xc457b1…
05-26 10:57:01	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x247265…
05-26 10:45:58	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xf1ff76…
05-26 10:45:58	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x0589ac…
05-26 10:11:26	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	46	3¢	$1	0x8e16d1…
05-26 04:42:51	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xdba0d9…
05-26 04:42:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xadcc35…
05-26 04:42:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x4210cd…
05-21 04:57:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	38	4¢	$2	0xecd094…
05-21 02:38:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0xdecc5a…
05-21 00:58:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	5¢	$3	0x39dc89…
05-20 22:47:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x77aaf4…
05-20 22:47:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	6¢	$2	0x430f31…
05-20 16:54:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0xbde058…
05-20 10:58:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8fd263…
05-20 10:58:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x54780c…
05-18 09:52:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x35c953…
05-18 08:15:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x669747…
05-18 02:08:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0x7ff10e…
05-18 00:52:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xf619c4…
05-15 09:13:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	61	3¢	$2	0xe78d20…
05-15 08:40:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$2	0x2e95e5…
05-15 04:31:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0x50ca02…
05-15 01:22:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x7f4379…
05-13 21:54:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0xdfafba…
05-13 21:54:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x99bae2…
05-13 19:19:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0xfad2e1…
05-13 15:48:41	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	92¢	$21	0xa6ef17…
05-13 12:24:27	Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x873099…
05-12 18:20:09	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0xaf2275…
05-12 18:19:24	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xa11d08…
05-12 12:01:15	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x800083…
05-12 07:23:49	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0x179b11…
05-12 07:23:47	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x1097b3…
05-12 02:00:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0x1a6631…
05-12 00:51:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x1d4cc6…
05-12 00:51:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x18cc20…
05-12 00:51:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x069de6…
05-11 22:04:45	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xfeb102…
05-11 17:45:17	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x164b3c…
05-11 09:38:29	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x477668…
05-11 09:38:29	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x3d2dd6…
05-11 05:05:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0x0ff3ac…
05-10 15:04:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	4¢	$2	0x1f6cc6…
05-10 13:45:19	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0xeae00d…
05-10 13:45:19	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0xdfd62e…
05-10 05:02:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x56f323…
05-10 02:57:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x29ea45…
05-09 10:01:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x476571…
05-09 10:01:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x26a073…
05-09 06:44:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0xf5b7bd…
05-07 04:39:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0xb0f35d…
05-07 03:00:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x6ebf9e…
05-07 00:52:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x78a410…
05-07 00:51:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xa54974…
05-06 23:36:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	5¢	$1	0xfaf919…
05-06 20:59:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xfc36d7…
05-06 20:59:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$2	0xa9139f…
05-06 16:29:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0x26f0ac…
05-06 13:15:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0x6b3042…
05-06 01:26:54	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0x8d8102…
05-05 22:50:08	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x619618…
05-05 02:09:40	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xe75b1f…
05-05 02:09:40	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x1287e1…
05-05 00:22:50	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xd2d88b…
05-04 15:54:52	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xbf43a7…
05-04 13:18:46	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x2044dc…
05-04 07:15:52	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x6aea9b…