Stimulating-Shadowbox — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$261

Unrealized P&L

+$12

Hit rate

43.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,157

lifetime

Volume

$191.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

$134

1 position

First seen

2026-01-24

last 06-27 14:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

51% 67% $-261

Other

40% — —

Politics

8% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+447	$122	30¢	$134	+$12	06-16 09:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	36	$7.4K	7,930	7,930	+0	open	—	03-08 05:32
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	3	$5.2K	7,459	2,778	+4,681	open	—	06-08 22:57
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	9	$5.0K	12,183	7,183	+5,000	open	—	06-11 02:52
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	4	$4.6K	115	7,557	-7,442	open	—	06-14 03:30
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic	6	$3.9K	4,400	4,400	+0	open	—	05-31 12:56
ufc bre1 edm 2026 06 06	2	$3.9K	2,355	2,355	+0	open	—	06-07 02:41
ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	2	$3.6K	2,719	2,719	+0	open	—	02-22 05:17
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	17	$3.3K	4,385	8,900	-4,515	open	—	03-08 23:35
Spurs vs. Thunder	3	$2.8K	5,342	1,250	+4,092	open	—	05-30 19:18
epl sun liv 2026 02 11 liv	3	$2.8K	1,913	1,913	+0	open	—	02-11 22:13
epl bri ars 2026 03 04 ars	2	$2.8K	1,760	1,760	+0	open	—	03-04 21:41
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	13	$2.6K	2,266	2,123	+143	open	—	06-04 22:00
lol fox1 dnf 2026 02 12	4	$2.4K	1,455	1,455	+0	open	—	02-12 14:15
cdr atm fcb 2026 02 12 fcb	1	$2.2K	5,198	0	+5,198	open	—	02-12 14:16
epl eve mun 2026 02 23 mun	2	$2.1K	1,434	1,434	+0	open	—	02-23 22:18
mwoh can usa 2026 02 22	4	$2.1K	1,647	1,647	+0	open	—	02-22 18:16
nhl car las 2026 06 09	1	$2.1K	4,200	0	+4,200	open	—	06-09 11:45
ucl ben rma 2026 02 17 rma	3	$2.0K	1,416	1,416	+0	open	—	02-17 22:08
nba was det 2026 02 05 total 226pt5	5	$1.9K	1,765	1,765	+0	open	—	02-06 02:21
epl liv new 2026 01 31 liv	2	$1.9K	1,195	1,195	+0	open	—	01-31 22:36
nba gsw hou 2026 03 05	4	$1.8K	1,461	1,461	+0	open	—	03-06 03:19
ufc ale14 die4 2026 01 31	2	$1.8K	2,999	0	+2,999	open	—	01-31 10:33
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-05 20:58
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	2	$1.7K	1,620	1,620	+0	open	—	02-21 20:15
nhl ott cal 2026 03 05	9	$1.7K	1,600	1,200	+400	open	—	03-06 03:38
military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	2	$1.7K	800	1,600	-800	open	—	03-12 19:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$1.6K	3,200	3,200	+0	open	—	03-13 01:28
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland	3	$1.6K	2,100	1,100	+1,000	open	—	05-31 20:07
nhl car las 2026 06 06	5	$1.6K	3,854	2,400	+1,454	open	—	06-07 02:42
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi	2	$1.5K	1,030	1,030	+0	open	—	06-01 21:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 14:36:34	ufc jav3 kaa 2026 06 27	Javier Reyes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xca86d5…
06-26 11:34:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	659	37¢	$244	0x0de990…
06-16 09:39:18	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	447	27¢	$122	0xd2838f…
06-15 21:31:12	atp fernand hardt 2026 06 15	Bruno Fernandez	SELL	286	25¢	$71	0x468c16…
06-14 21:36:12	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	2,480	20¢	$496	0xb31e13…
06-14 08:31:06	ufc kyl3 bon 2026 06 14	Kyle Daukaus	BUY	2,857	28¢	$800	0x70629d…
06-14 03:30:57	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0x926c1f…
06-14 03:24:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x4d7bac…
06-14 03:22:27	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	3,276	88¢	$2,883	0x128471…
06-14 01:47:13	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 5pt5	Knicks	SELL	686	48¢	$329	0xe99732…
06-14 01:28:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 1h moneyline	Knicks	BUY	1,576	6¢	$100	0x5e27ea…
06-14 00:33:10	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 5pt5	Knicks	BUY	686	51¢	$350	0x5f172d…
06-14 00:28:57	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 1h moneyline	Knicks	SELL	4,130	34¢	$1,404	0x6865a0…
06-14 00:24:06	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	SELL	417	100¢	$416	0x53bacc…
06-13 22:48:16	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	4,167	35¢	$1,458	0xe48ac2…
06-13 22:03:01	mlb tex bos 2026 06 13	Boston Red Sox	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6ccb07…
06-13 22:01:28	mlb tex bos 2026 06 13	Boston Red Sox	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x0ec695…
06-13 21:32:25	mlb nyy tor 2026 06 13	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xafd9ff…
06-13 20:58:10	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xcf011d…
06-13 20:58:06	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xfff151…
06-13 20:58:06	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	557	24¢	$134	0xc02c57…
06-13 20:58:06	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x4a69cc…
06-13 19:33:15	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 goals granit xhaka gte1	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x116a22…
06-13 19:33:01	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 goals granit xhaka gte1	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x4cae8b…
06-13 19:32:57	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 goals granit xhaka gte1	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x8b52e0…
06-13 19:32:57	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 goals granit xhaka gte1	Yes	BUY	144	27¢	$39	0x62fe3b…
06-12 21:32:48	mlb sea wsh 2026 06 12	Washington Nationals	BUY	1,163	43¢	$500	0x30210c…
06-12 19:49:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	777	77¢	$598	0x85afa4…
06-12 17:59:52	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xebc3d9…
06-12 17:53:45	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xefe0cf…
06-12 17:52:33	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	112	58¢	$65	0x7c100f…
06-12 17:50:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	61¢	$203	0xcb1cd3…
06-12 17:48:16	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	303	58¢	$176	0x2b0be5…
06-12 17:47:46	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	1,000	58¢	$580	0x888f9e…
06-12 17:41:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	500	92¢	$460	0x1db655…
06-12 17:32:43	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	237	91¢	$215	0x4e433e…
06-12 17:32:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	263	91¢	$240	0x0a6044…
06-12 17:12:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	777	76¢	$591	0x584489…
06-12 17:10:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	65¢	$216	0x5e2066…
06-11 21:24:13	nhl las car 2026 06 11 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	1,111	45¢	$500	0x06f453…
06-11 18:22:12	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	490	57¢	$278	0x6941e7…
06-11 17:27:34	wti closes above 91 on june 11 2026	Yes	SELL	170	14¢	$24	0x8cf0fa…
06-11 17:27:18	wti closes above 91 on june 11 2026	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0x537379…
06-11 17:25:55	wti closes above 91 on june 11 2026	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x418da4…
06-11 17:00:22	wti closes above 91 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	300	47¢	$141	0xfee545…
06-11 02:52:07	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	3,333	12¢	$400	0xf46038…
06-11 02:09:52	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	1,667	6¢	$100	0x3df205…
06-11 01:58:58	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	4,528	8¢	$362	0xd670d0…
06-11 01:58:27	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	1,250	8¢	$100	0x08e45b…
06-11 01:58:25	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	625	8¢	$50	0x7b5ea3…
06-11 01:58:25	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	438	8¢	$35	0x611257…
06-11 01:58:25	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x1228ce…
06-11 01:58:24	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	SELL	312	8¢	$25	0xd6029d…
06-11 00:02:21	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	7,183	55¢	$3,951	0xefa1d1…
06-09 21:00:06	mlb mil oak 2026 06 09 total 13pt5	Over	BUY	1,117	47¢	$525	0x6670f2…
06-09 18:30:25	spy closes above 740 on june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0xac2050…
06-09 18:30:16	spy closes above 740 on june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x10c116…
06-09 14:14:21	spy closes above 740 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	48	65¢	$31	0x5ab1e9…
06-09 14:14:06	spy closes above 740 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	252	65¢	$164	0xbff45a…
06-09 13:13:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	444	52¢	$232	0x10b24a…
06-09 12:05:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	324	72¢	$233	0x2e8fca…
06-09 12:04:57	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xdafb91…
06-09 12:04:39	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$15	0x671ac3…
06-09 11:45:45	nhl car las 2026 06 09	Golden Knights	BUY	4,200	50¢	$2,100	0x36526b…
06-08 22:57:00	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	4,681	47¢	$2,200	0xe19e3e…
06-08 22:56:37	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Knicks	SELL	2,778	53¢	$1,472	0x013eb7…
06-08 21:44:22	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Knicks	BUY	2,778	54¢	$1,500	0x05b601…
06-08 16:24:21	wta boulter fernand 2026 06 08	Katie Boulter	BUY	1,512	53¢	$800	0xca2964…
06-07 04:24:09	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	2,000	23¢	$460	0x887c2e…
06-07 02:51:48	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x603caa…
06-07 02:51:45	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	BUY	703	4¢	$28	0xe2ea96…
06-07 02:51:45	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x47df80…
06-07 02:51:42	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	BUY	154	4¢	$6	0xbfa733…
06-07 02:42:00	nhl car las 2026 06 06	Hurricanes	BUY	84	22¢	$19	0x9298af…
06-07 02:41:57	nhl car las 2026 06 06	Hurricanes	BUY	416	22¢	$93	0xab1b1c…
06-07 02:41:27	ufc bre1 edm 2026 06 06	Brendan Allen	SELL	2,355	100¢	$2,353	0x52f85f…
06-07 02:41:21	nhl car las 2026 06 06 total 6pt5	Over	SELL	457	99¢	$452	0xa6bc86…
06-07 02:40:07	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	257	12¢	$31	0x6f2fbe…
06-07 02:40:07	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	80	12¢	$10	0x39fd7f…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0xfbe812…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xf5b17d…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0xe6d365…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xe39610…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xd7afb5…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0xcf0c45…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0xc4ceef…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xa8dabb…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0xa6dc21…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0x9fc4ed…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	72	12¢	$9	0x94ce8c…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0x90097b…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x8c16af…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x7844c1…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x7623d0…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x687eef…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x5efec0…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0x38c96e…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	89	12¢	$11	0x32739d…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	60	12¢	$7	0x2d4ec3…
06-07 02:40:06	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Belal Muhammad	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x2b3040…