Mortified-Patina — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$593

Unrealized P&L

+$34

Hit rate

86.1%

Resolved

211

Trades

1,225

lifetime

Volume

$20.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$121

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 07-14 20:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 81% +$593

Politics

7% — —

Other

1% 0% $-0

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 149 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+115	$30	48¢	$56	+$26	06-08 04:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+69	$37	64¢	$44	+$7	06-07 08:17
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+27	$20	78¢	$21	+$1	06-03 06:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	8	$460	542	0	+542	Up	+$82	05-06 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	11	$424	259	259	+0	open	—	05-04 16:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	6	$389	205	205	+0	Down	+$18	05-07 13:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	10	$385	449	0	+449	Up	+$64	05-07 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	8	$365	507	0	+507	Up	+$142	05-06 06:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$326	72,562	140	+72,422	open	—	06-17 09:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	5	$326	173	173	+0	Up	+$16	05-06 19:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	3	$300	335	0	+335	open	—	05-23 05:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	7	$274	146	146	+0	Up	+$14	05-07 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	8	$270	302	0	+302	Down	+$32	05-07 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	7	$252	135	135	+0	Down	+$14	05-08 15:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	6	$240	247	0	+247	Down	+$7	05-07 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	3	$215	224	0	+224	open	—	05-23 04:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	7	$214	112	112	+0	Down	+$8	05-07 20:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	9	$195	229	0	+229	open	—	05-17 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	7	$195	225	0	+225	Down	$-21	05-13 11:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	11	$190	276	0	+276	Down	+$17	05-12 15:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	6	$180	194	0	+194	open	—	05-17 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	6	$171	92	92	+0	Down	+$11	05-07 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	8	$165	177	0	+177	open	—	05-20 04:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	6	$163	85	85	+0	Up	+$3	05-09 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	5	$160	188	0	+188	Down	+$28	05-06 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	5	$160	172	0	+172	Down	+$12	05-07 14:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	6	$150	162	0	+162	open	—	05-17 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	5	$150	118	56	+63	Down	$-40	05-07 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	6	$140	166	0	+166	Up	$-140	05-13 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	6	$135	154	0	+154	Up	+$19	05-13 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	6	$135	154	0	+154	open	—	05-17 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	9	$135	157	0	+157	open	—	05-14 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	5	$135	146	0	+146	Up	+$11	05-07 14:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 20:26:41	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x5d9ba9…
07-14 20:25:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0xf7b9eb…
07-14 20:23:35	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	67	92¢	$61	0x7ba54f…
07-10 09:59:26	btc updown 5m 1783677300	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd9e215…
07-10 09:59:10	btc updown 5m 1783677300	Down	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xfaca42…
07-10 09:59:05	btc updown 5m 1783677300	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x603a16…
07-10 09:58:52	btc updown 5m 1783677300	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x918a0d…
07-10 09:58:14	will indonesia recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	11	92¢	$11	0x2f68f4…
06-26 04:25:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x1f8ba4…
06-26 04:24:49	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xc91b9b…
06-17 09:07:47	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	45,000	0¢	$90	0x9da56c…
06-17 08:50:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0xfe731a…
06-17 08:49:26	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xae8c24…
06-16 05:54:48	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	36	89¢	$32	0xb9d7f3…
06-16 05:54:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	48	72¢	$34	0x275385…
06-12 15:10:55	will solana reach 90 in june 2026	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0xc17e48…
06-12 15:10:33	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	28	84¢	$24	0x518a8d…
06-12 15:10:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0xdc40dc…
06-10 14:35:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x8b8ba9…
06-10 14:35:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xd7b379…
06-09 11:16:45	will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x03033d…
06-09 11:15:46	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	No	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x9b60fa…
06-09 11:15:43	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x9d869e…
06-09 11:12:19	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	No	BUY	94	43¢	$40	0x6ac42e…
06-08 20:48:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	84	83¢	$69	0x7dd02a…
06-08 20:48:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	76	69¢	$53	0x341c48…
06-08 04:09:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	218	32¢	$70	0xa7ece2…
06-08 04:09:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	140	94¢	$131	0x39d208…
06-08 04:08:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0xf6e78a…
06-08 04:07:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	33	90¢	$30	0xb2320c…
06-07 08:17:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	69	54¢	$37	0x8bd3ee…
06-06 04:29:49	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	SELL	23	90¢	$21	0x221c93…
06-05 19:08:54	will indonesia recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xfda3e1…
06-05 19:07:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0xd54ad1…
06-05 19:07:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x1969b9…
06-05 18:50:25	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	No	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x104d4e…
06-05 18:49:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0xeff39f…
06-04 05:56:24	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	23	70¢	$16	0xa4c124…
06-03 19:39:19	will solana reach 90 in june 2026	No	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0xbd5950…
06-03 06:52:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x0477c0…
06-03 06:49:31	Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0xb6291c…
06-03 06:49:19	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xd3a666…
06-03 06:45:59	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x44ef81…
06-03 06:44:11	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xda19d3…
05-31 13:18:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x729892…
05-31 13:17:46	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xc2d23e…
05-31 13:17:25	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x8c137a…
05-31 13:16:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xd8a94b…
05-31 13:16:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x33f65e…
05-31 13:16:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xbcb88e…
05-31 13:16:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0xd25df3…
05-30 15:44:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0xa8275a…
05-28 17:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	SELL	19	58¢	$11	0xf4ac2b…
05-28 17:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x71277c…
05-28 17:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd1bce8…
05-28 17:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x318704…
05-28 17:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x350305…
05-28 15:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7042cb…
05-28 15:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x3a5015…
05-28 15:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x052940…
05-28 15:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x5112b4…
05-28 15:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc7b721…
05-28 15:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc9ecbf…
05-28 15:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x671f93…
05-28 15:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x6a38c9…
05-28 15:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xebdb4e…
05-28 15:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x7c5bb9…
05-28 15:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xafd0c6…
05-28 15:47:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x06e528…
05-28 14:21:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa22ea3…
05-28 14:21:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xda2b71…
05-28 14:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x507bbf…
05-28 14:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcfb982…
05-28 14:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbc9503…
05-28 14:00:46	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xf03289…
05-28 13:59:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xf67b96…
05-28 13:57:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x9ead72…
05-27 19:33:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x015136…
05-27 19:33:13	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x35fc03…
05-27 19:32:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6b5557…
05-27 19:32:03	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0x3f7b96…
05-23 05:28:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd3dda9…
05-23 05:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0x141923…
05-23 05:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x10fa87…
05-23 05:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x2ad152…
05-23 05:04:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0xae33c0…
05-23 05:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0xa09837…
05-23 04:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x70b1c4…
05-23 04:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x5e5b91…
05-23 04:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x7abad2…
05-23 04:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xe55fd9…
05-23 04:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x6021b7…
05-20 06:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x170ea3…
05-20 06:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x670be1…
05-20 06:34:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0xd1ed66…
05-20 06:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x161dda…
05-20 06:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xaf89a5…
05-20 06:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x1b5316…
05-20 05:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xa435cb…
05-20 05:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x7c68d3…