Determined-Smoke — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

3.1%

Resolved

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$16.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$110

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 08-01 06:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

58% 33% $-0

Crypto

24% 100% +$0

Sports

9% — —

Tech

5% — —

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	11	$1.9K	976	976	+0	open	—	04-30 02:48
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$816	409	409	+0	open	—	04-23 02:31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	6	$700	352	352	+0	open	—	04-23 08:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$590	299	299	+0	open	—	04-18 01:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	2	$413	207	207	+0	open	—	04-25 11:41
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 3?	2	$413	207	207	+0	open	—	05-04 02:28
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$413	208	208	+0	open	—	04-26 01:21
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$412	207	207	+0	open	—	04-26 01:21
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 26?	2	$412	206	206	+0	open	—	04-26 01:22
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	14	$411	207	207	+0	open	—	05-07 09:32
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$411	212	212	+0	open	—	04-27 01:40
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$411	206	206	+0	Yes	$-0	05-03 01:23
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$411	206	206	+0	open	—	04-27 01:42
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$411	206	206	+0	open	—	04-28 01:37
bitcoin above 70k on april 22	2	$409	205	205	+0	open	—	04-22 02:39
highest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 30c	2	$408	204	204	+0	open	—	04-23 02:28
nba phx okc 2026 04 22	2	$407	229	229	+0	open	—	04-23 02:30
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$406	204	204	+0	No	$-0	04-24 01:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	2	$406	203	203	+0	open	—	04-25 01:48
nba min den 2026 04 20	2	$403	245	245	+0	open	—	04-21 03:02
76ers vs. Celtics	4	$363	205	205	+0	open	—	05-03 01:56
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	2	$362	181	181	+0	open	—	04-28 01:46
highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 28c	2	$296	148	148	+0	open	—	04-19 01:27
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$295	148	148	+0	open	—	04-17 02:30
btc updown 5m 1776306600	2	$294	148	148	+0	open	—	04-16 02:35
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$292	146	146	+0	open	—	04-20 01:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	2	$280	140	140	+0	open	—	04-01 15:35
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$280	141	141	+0	open	—	04-02 03:18
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	2	$280	140	140	+0	open	—	04-03 02:31
ethereum above 1900 on april 10	2	$280	140	140	+0	open	—	04-10 02:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 06:47:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xcf1486…
08-01 06:47:15	will wti dip to 20 in august 2026	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xf2b326…
08-01 06:47:00	will wti dip to 20 in august 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa74f21…
07-28 03:00:04	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x640f28…
07-25 02:35:18	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xbd09d2…
07-24 05:41:57	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x3951fc…
07-23 02:29:51	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe89bfb…
07-18 02:54:22	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x2490e8…
07-14 03:00:55	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xa60856…
07-14 03:00:04	over 20m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325650	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x2a4d67…
07-14 02:59:43	over 20m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325650	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x8e0c85…
07-11 17:22:59	will wti dip to 30 in july 2026 321	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xacb5a9…
07-11 13:04:37	will wti dip to 30 in july 2026 321	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe76a17…
07-11 09:17:01	will wti dip to 30 in july 2026 321	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc3c526…
07-11 02:54:22	will wti dip to 30 in july 2026 321	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x13c5e6…
06-22 06:43:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	26	94¢	$24	0xc6c202…
06-22 05:58:08	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	26	94¢	$24	0x88fe53…
06-19 03:26:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	26	94¢	$24	0x38d29b…
06-19 02:12:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	26	94¢	$24	0xc31c6d…
06-08 05:15:07	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x6f4372…
06-08 05:14:57	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x20fd90…
06-04 07:03:54	gpt 5pt6 released by june 5 2026	No	SELL	24	97¢	$24	0xdfdd75…
06-03 09:05:54	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	24	97¢	$24	0xd88f2e…
06-02 02:16:02	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x349ef4…
06-02 02:15:53	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xb3e5ba…
06-01 04:15:08	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x3c14c2…
05-31 03:14:57	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0x63be21…
05-31 01:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	220	4¢	$9	0x2d15dc…
05-31 01:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	45	21¢	$9	0xe8fcb3…
05-31 01:42:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	45	20¢	$9	0xc9c664…
05-30 02:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	23	44¢	$10	0x2c95bf…
05-30 02:06:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	23	28¢	$6	0xda6768…
05-29 18:17:20	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x0df7a9…
05-29 03:01:05	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x4ad8b8…
05-16 01:50:22	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf9767f…
05-15 03:58:41	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x67d929…
05-14 01:38:45	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xec92b3…
05-08 05:23:25	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9917c3…
05-08 03:34:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x310e05…
05-08 03:14:16	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x36f328…
05-08 03:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x1d6aca…
05-08 03:12:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xdf937f…
05-08 03:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2728bb…
05-07 09:32:40	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xc965db…
05-07 08:45:30	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x548089…
05-07 08:02:30	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xdf134a…
05-07 07:41:58	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x76f83d…
05-07 07:36:28	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x3b2eb0…
05-07 07:36:21	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x9a80f9…
05-07 07:13:48	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xeb9232…
05-07 06:51:41	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x118e26…
05-07 06:49:51	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x25ec5f…
05-07 06:16:55	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x7927c9…
05-07 05:37:47	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	74	99¢	$74	0xec145b…
05-07 05:26:42	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xf9c39c…
05-07 04:52:20	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa24394…
05-07 04:30:44	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	207	100¢	$206	0x0ecedb…
05-04 02:28:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 3?	No	SELL	207	100¢	$207	0x1403d6…
05-04 01:49:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	207	100¢	$207	0x956c79…
05-03 01:56:50	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	SELL	205	89¢	$182	0x648677…
05-03 01:24:40	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	87	88¢	$76	0xd177c2…
05-03 01:24:40	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	91	88¢	$80	0x8b8cb7…
05-03 01:24:40	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x14243a…
05-03 01:23:22	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	206	100¢	$205	0x454180…
05-03 01:22:04	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0x799d72…
05-02 01:34:08	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 1?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0xbeb331…
04-30 02:49:56	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0x409267…
04-30 02:48:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	205	100¢	$205	0xf924a7…
04-29 01:52:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0x70c568…
04-28 01:46:56	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	SELL	181	100¢	$181	0xe98c59…
04-28 01:38:58	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	No	BUY	181	100¢	$181	0xfd5f58…
04-28 01:38:14	Over $250k committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc5fa2f…
04-28 01:37:22	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	206	100¢	$205	0x74febf…
04-28 01:37:16	Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	206	100¢	$205	0xaa9f8b…
04-27 01:42:58	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 27?	No	BUY	206	100¢	$205	0xf52d7f…
04-27 01:42:28	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	206	100¢	$205	0x7c71a5…
04-27 01:42:22	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0xf786ac…
04-27 01:40:52	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	212	97¢	$206	0x3f2cc4…
04-27 01:40:44	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	212	97¢	$206	0xb639b3…
04-26 01:25:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	177	100¢	$176	0xc9abf5…
04-26 01:24:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x9d6a64…
04-26 01:24:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0xb3f05b…
04-26 01:23:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	154	100¢	$153	0x4d4592…
04-26 01:23:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	154	100¢	$153	0xd92a86…
04-26 01:23:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	206	100¢	$206	0xcc54b8…
04-26 01:22:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0x8113ff…
04-26 01:22:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 26?	Yes	SELL	206	100¢	$206	0xb99bed…
04-26 01:22:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	206	100¢	$206	0x39045b…
04-26 01:21:54	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	207	100¢	$206	0x5e68fe…
04-26 01:21:48	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	207	100¢	$206	0x12f18c…
04-26 01:21:20	Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	208	99¢	$206	0x70f874…
04-25 11:41:24	Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	208	99¢	$206	0x49063d…
04-25 11:41:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	207	100¢	$206	0x340460…
04-25 11:40:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	207	100¢	$207	0x282d63…
04-25 01:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	207	98¢	$203	0x4dc43d…
04-25 01:48:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	SELL	203	100¢	$203	0xd1e7ee…
04-24 01:40:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	BUY	203	100¢	$203	0x498c22…
04-24 01:40:14	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	204	100¢	$203	0x8e8780…
04-24 01:40:06	Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	204	100¢	$203	0x14f493…
04-23 08:56:40	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xf3171c…