Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$1,309
Trades
76
Unique wallets
29
Liquidity
$359
Latest YES mid
50¢
Latest NO mid
50¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-05-29
last 06-26 17:39
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $135 | $96 | +$39 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 10 | $59 | $53 | +$6 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $12 | $13 | $1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $19 | $31 | $13 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $46 | $77 | $31 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $6 | $4 | +$2 |
| Median | 3 | — | $40 | $40 |
| Below median | 4 | $7 | $22 | $15 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $53 | — | +$53 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $95 | $19 | +$75 |
| unranked | 5 | $16 | $31 | $15 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +160 | $77 | $77 | 4 | 06-23 08:27 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | +152 | $81 | $81 | 6 | 06-23 08:27 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +99 | $41 | $41 | 5 | 06-26 17:39 |
| JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | +80 | $39 | $39 | 4 | 06-03 20:12 |
| Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | Yes | +74 | $38 | $38 | 1 | 06-03 18:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | +34 | $18 | $18 | 6 | 06-04 13:06 |
| Measly-Gelatin 0x28ca…5d19 | Yes | +34 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-03 18:32 |
| All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | No | +29 | $15 | $24 | 3 | 06-16 06:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x3057…bf7b | No | +28 | $13 | $13 | 4 | 06-16 14:21 |
| Tidy-Octopus-Escape 0x9c11…847b | No | +24 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-26 17:39 |
| Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | +21 | $10 | $10 | 3 | 06-04 12:10 |
| Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | +13 | $5 | $12 | 3 | 06-06 08:30 |
| Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | Yes | +11 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-03 18:44 |
| Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | +10 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-04 13:06 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | +8 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-03 18:21 |
| Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-23 08:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc77…dc8b | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-16 14:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-06 08:30 |
| Shady-Pinstripe 0x9efa…9332 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 05:45 |
| Guilty-Spring 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-18 09:48 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 17:39:43 | Tidy-Octopus-Escape 0x9c11…847b | No | BUY | 24 | 52¢ | $12 | 0x8031a5… |
| 06-26 17:39:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 48¢ | $9 | 0x8031a5… |
| 06-26 17:39:43 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 49¢ | $3 | 0x8031a5… |
| 06-23 08:37:02 | Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 55¢ | $3 | 0x730d6a… |
| 06-23 08:37:02 | Orderly-Dentist 0xe4ca…1383 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 55¢ | $3 | 0x730d6a… |
| 06-23 08:27:17 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 58¢ | $16 | 0x244a2c… |
| 06-23 08:27:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 27 | 42¢ | $11 | 0x244a2c… |
| 06-18 09:48:22 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 50¢ | $0 | 0x99854c… |
| 06-18 09:48:22 | Guilty-Spring 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 50¢ | $0 | 0x99854c… |
| 06-18 09:01:47 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 49¢ | $4 | 0x5c6f1a… |
| 06-18 09:01:47 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x5c6f1a… |
| 06-18 09:01:47 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 49¢ | $6 | 0x5c6f1a… |
| 06-17 05:40:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 74 | 48¢ | $36 | 0xb1cdbf… |
| 06-17 05:40:11 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | BUY | 74 | 52¢ | $38 | 0xb1cdbf… |
| 06-16 22:02:58 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x79ef9f… |
| 06-16 22:02:58 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x79ef9f… |
| 06-16 14:21:47 | (anonymous) 0x3057…bf7b | No | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x197482… |
| 06-16 14:21:47 | (anonymous) 0x3057…bf7b | No | BUY | 8 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x7afb95… |
| 06-16 14:21:47 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x7afb95… |
| 06-16 14:21:47 | (anonymous) 0xbc77…dc8b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x197482… |
| 06-16 14:11:55 | (anonymous) 0x3057…bf7b | No | BUY | 10 | 48¢ | $5 | 0x31051d… |
| 06-16 14:11:55 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x31051d… |
| 06-16 14:11:55 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x31051d… |
| 06-16 06:26:00 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | No | SELL | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x0cf85b… |
| 06-16 06:26:00 | (anonymous) 0x3057…bf7b | No | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x0cf85b… |
| 06-15 15:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x43d5…2e11 | No | SELL | 826 | 30¢ | $248 | 0xa4f9fb… |
| 06-15 15:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x1b64…bd0e | Yes | SELL | 23 | 70¢ | $16 | 0xa4f9fb… |
| 06-15 15:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x1a41…1160 | Yes | SELL | 793 | 70¢ | $555 | 0xa4f9fb… |
| 06-15 15:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x2f68…21ec | Yes | SELL | 10 | 70¢ | $7 | 0xa4f9fb… |
| 06-15 13:18:22 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | No | SELL | 6 | 42¢ | $2 | 0x4d3b13… |
| 06-15 13:18:22 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 58¢ | $3 | 0x4d3b13… |
| 06-15 12:27:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 51¢ | $16 | 0xb473c0… |
| 06-15 12:27:51 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 52¢ | $5 | 0xb473c0… |
| 06-15 12:27:51 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | No | BUY | 40 | 49¢ | $19 | 0xb473c0… |
| 06-06 08:30:28 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xb57223… |
| 06-06 08:30:28 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xb57223… |
| 06-05 20:11:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 44¢ | $11 | 0x7cf26d… |
| 06-05 20:11:10 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 56¢ | $14 | 0x7cf26d… |
| 06-04 13:06:25 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 0 | 52¢ | $0 | 0xe24b98… |
| 06-04 13:06:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 48¢ | $0 | 0xe24b98… |
| 06-04 13:06:21 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x1db65c… |
| 06-04 13:06:21 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x1db65c… |
| 06-04 13:05:13 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x546be7… |
| 06-04 13:05:13 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x546be7… |
| 06-04 12:10:18 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 6 | 48¢ | $3 | 0xa3f6e4… |
| 06-04 12:10:18 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 52¢ | $3 | 0xa3f6e4… |
| 06-04 09:47:06 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 8 | 54¢ | $4 | 0x45541e… |
| 06-04 09:47:06 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | BUY | 8 | 46¢ | $4 | 0x45541e… |
| 06-04 09:45:58 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 10 | 55¢ | $6 | 0x97c6b6… |
| 06-04 09:45:58 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | BUY | 10 | 45¢ | $4 | 0x97c6b6… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 64¢ | $5 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 1 | 49¢ | $0 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 8 | 52¢ | $4 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 16 | 42¢ | $7 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 18:58:22 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x512643… |
| 06-03 18:58:22 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 5 | 49¢ | $2 | 0x512643… |
| 06-03 18:47:06 | Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | Yes | BUY | 74 | 51¢ | $38 | 0x62c0a4… |
| 06-03 18:47:06 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 74 | 49¢ | $36 | 0x62c0a4… |
| 06-03 18:44:12 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $3 | 0x1d597c… |
| 06-03 18:44:12 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 0 | 49¢ | $0 | 0x1d597c… |
| 06-03 18:44:12 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x1d597c… |
| 06-03 18:32:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 34 | 55¢ | $19 | 0x66bff0… |
| 06-03 18:32:28 | Measly-Gelatin 0x28ca…5d19 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 45¢ | $15 | 0x66bff0… |
| 06-03 18:21:54 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 8 | 57¢ | $4 | 0xb07aec… |
| 06-03 18:21:54 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0xb07aec… |
| 06-03 18:21:54 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 45¢ | $4 | 0xb07aec… |
| 06-03 18:15:54 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 42¢ | $2 | 0x7e97fa… |
| 06-03 18:15:54 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 5 | 58¢ | $3 | 0x7e97fa… |
| 06-02 05:45:29 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 2 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x017e67… |
| 06-02 05:45:29 | Shady-Pinstripe 0x9efa…9332 | No | BUY | 2 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x017e67… |
| 05-30 13:52:45 | Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | SELL | 40 | 33¢ | $13 | 0x5249ba… |
| 05-30 13:52:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 33¢ | $13 | 0x5249ba… |
| 05-30 01:40:34 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 10 | 67¢ | $7 | 0xf788c4… |
| 05-30 01:40:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xf788c4… |
| 05-29 13:41:19 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 8 | 67¢ | $5 | 0x5d918a… |
| 05-29 13:41:19 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x5d918a… |