Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$261
Trades
42
Unique wallets
16
Liquidity
$359
Latest YES mid
63¢
Latest NO mid
37¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-05-29
last 06-06 08:30
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $43 | $30 | +$14 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $53 | $53 | $0 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 5 | $19 | $19 | $0 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $21 | $30 | $8 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $4 | $4 |
| Median | 3 | — | $40 | $40 |
| Below median | 1 | — | $10 | $10 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $53 | — | +$53 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $27 | — | +$27 |
| unranked | 2 | $14 | $18 | $4 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | +80 | $39 | $39 | 4 | 06-03 20:12 |
| Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | Yes | +74 | $38 | $38 | 1 | 06-03 18:47 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +59 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 06-05 20:11 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +50 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 06-04 13:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | +34 | $18 | $18 | 6 | 06-04 13:06 |
| Measly-Gelatin 0x28ca…5d19 | Yes | +34 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-03 18:32 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | +25 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-05 20:11 |
| Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | +21 | $10 | $10 | 3 | 06-04 12:10 |
| Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | +13 | $5 | $12 | 3 | 06-06 08:30 |
| Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | Yes | +11 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-03 18:44 |
| Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | +10 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-04 13:06 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | +8 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-03 18:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-06 08:30 |
| Shady-Pinstripe 0x9efa…9332 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 05:45 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-06 08:30:28 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xb57223… |
| 06-06 08:30:28 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xb57223… |
| 06-05 20:11:10 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 56¢ | $14 | 0x7cf26d… |
| 06-05 20:11:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 44¢ | $11 | 0x7cf26d… |
| 06-04 13:06:25 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 0 | 52¢ | $0 | 0xe24b98… |
| 06-04 13:06:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 48¢ | $0 | 0xe24b98… |
| 06-04 13:06:21 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x1db65c… |
| 06-04 13:06:21 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x1db65c… |
| 06-04 13:05:13 | Honest-Similarity 0xde04…fa37 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x546be7… |
| 06-04 13:05:13 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x546be7… |
| 06-04 12:10:18 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 52¢ | $3 | 0xa3f6e4… |
| 06-04 12:10:18 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 6 | 48¢ | $3 | 0xa3f6e4… |
| 06-04 09:47:06 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | BUY | 8 | 46¢ | $4 | 0x45541e… |
| 06-04 09:47:06 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 8 | 54¢ | $4 | 0x45541e… |
| 06-04 09:45:58 | Tense-Fort 0x2f26…0d8f | Yes | BUY | 10 | 45¢ | $4 | 0x97c6b6… |
| 06-04 09:45:58 | (anonymous) 0xfcde…9bd9 | No | BUY | 10 | 55¢ | $6 | 0x97c6b6… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 64¢ | $5 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 16 | 42¢ | $7 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 8 | 52¢ | $4 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 20:12:49 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 1 | 49¢ | $0 | 0x5e0f84… |
| 06-03 18:58:22 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 5 | 49¢ | $2 | 0x512643… |
| 06-03 18:58:22 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x512643… |
| 06-03 18:47:06 | Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | Yes | BUY | 74 | 51¢ | $38 | 0x62c0a4… |
| 06-03 18:47:06 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 74 | 49¢ | $36 | 0x62c0a4… |
| 06-03 18:44:12 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x1d597c… |
| 06-03 18:44:12 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $3 | 0x1d597c… |
| 06-03 18:44:12 | JuicedBunched 0x2eba…ffa3 | No | BUY | 0 | 49¢ | $0 | 0x1d597c… |
| 06-03 18:32:28 | Measly-Gelatin 0x28ca…5d19 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 45¢ | $15 | 0x66bff0… |
| 06-03 18:32:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 34 | 55¢ | $19 | 0x66bff0… |
| 06-03 18:21:54 | Rubbery-Curio 0xc54a…5a08 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 45¢ | $4 | 0xb07aec… |
| 06-03 18:21:54 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 8 | 57¢ | $4 | 0xb07aec… |
| 06-03 18:21:54 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0xb07aec… |
| 06-03 18:15:54 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 5 | 58¢ | $3 | 0x7e97fa… |
| 06-03 18:15:54 | Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis 0x897a…4194 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 42¢ | $2 | 0x7e97fa… |
| 06-02 05:45:29 | Shady-Pinstripe 0x9efa…9332 | No | BUY | 2 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x017e67… |
| 06-02 05:45:29 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 2 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x017e67… |
| 05-30 13:52:45 | Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | SELL | 40 | 33¢ | $13 | 0x5249ba… |
| 05-30 13:52:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 33¢ | $13 | 0x5249ba… |
| 05-30 01:40:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xf788c4… |
| 05-30 01:40:34 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 10 | 67¢ | $7 | 0xf788c4… |
| 05-29 13:41:19 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x5d918a… |
| 05-29 13:41:19 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 8 | 67¢ | $5 | 0x5d918a… |