Roasted-Freon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

Trades

875

lifetime

Volume

$49.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-03-12

last 07-03 10:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

57% 33% $-40

Politics

28% 100% +$0

Tech

12% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No		+31	$17	42¢	$13	$-4	06-28 05:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	8	$8.4K	5,208	3,208	+2,000	open	—	06-25 14:39
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	42	$3.7K	2,050	2,050	+0	open	—	05-11 06:00
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	21	$1.9K	881	1,061	-180	open	—	05-31 17:14
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	45	$1.7K	1,106	1,106	+0	open	—	06-08 16:46
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt0 and 5pt5	4	$1.5K	774	774	+0	open	—	04-16 03:00
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	11	$1.4K	704	704	+0	open	—	04-10 03:11
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	51	$1.3K	971	971	+0	open	—	04-04 13:42
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$969	501	501	-0	open	—	05-15 07:23
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	33	$923	438	538	-100	open	—	05-15 14:05
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	5	$886	448	448	+0	Yes	+$5	05-02 11:07
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	6	$874	700	189	+511	open	—	04-30 06:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	14	$866	500	500	+0	open	—	03-25 12:48
will the dhs shutdown end between march 12 15 2026	3	$797	400	400	+0	open	—	03-15 06:54
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	10	$761	405	405	+0	open	—	04-01 03:33
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	2	$634	325	325	+0	open	—	05-28 16:44
will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	2	$597	200	400	-200	open	—	03-13 02:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$587	300	300	+0	open	—	04-10 11:01
will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	7	$578	300	300	+0	open	—	03-16 02:21
highest temperature in chengdu on april 12 2026 20c	7	$538	484	76	+407	open	—	04-12 11:39
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	7	$534	300	300	+0	open	—	04-21 23:24
cz binance of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	6	$530	533	10	+523	open	—	04-03 16:00
will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	3	$514	261	261	+0	open	—	03-20 06:25
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	22	$498	418	180	+238	open	—	04-23 14:42
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	12	$453	360	360	+0	open	—	06-21 11:15
cz binance of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	2	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	04-03 09:49
Will DeepSeek V4 be released on or prior to April 24, 2026?	4	$412	234	209	+25	open	—	04-24 03:33
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt5 and 6pt0	20	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	04-15 19:00
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?	3	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	04-24 02:59
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$395	200	200	+0	open	—	03-23 05:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$394	200	200	+0	open	—	04-17 17:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 16:27:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xeb5d58…
07-03 16:18:08	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xdda376…
07-03 10:27:11	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x3bd775…
07-03 10:24:08	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd30b87…
07-03 09:03:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x3ae665…
07-02 15:16:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	75	99¢	$75	0xe3e6a7…
07-02 03:11:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xb56ccd…
07-02 02:10:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7f19b0…
06-30 23:00:13	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xfe93bb…
06-30 22:35:10	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	28	73¢	$20	0xba7139…
06-28 05:26:29	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	21	55¢	$11	0x3aded9…
06-26 06:44:16	will bryan johnson have sex again by june 30 20260605201524848	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x580ef8…
06-26 06:11:55	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe04e46…
06-25 14:39:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x5a46b5…
06-24 01:30:29	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,807	100¢	$1,802	0xfa528f…
06-23 07:26:41	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd58743…
06-23 06:44:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x2db802…
06-21 11:15:58	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	160	59¢	$94	0x880753…
06-21 01:40:35	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	76¢	$29	0x4df8ee…
06-21 01:20:43	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	121	70¢	$86	0x5800ab…
06-21 01:19:13	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	34¢	$68	0xd10817…
06-20 04:20:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x3dac67…
06-20 04:20:23	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x9d758b…
06-20 04:20:23	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x20cd86…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xfd3d86…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xca28c8…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	88¢	$42	0xa93c0d…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x6714a7…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	88¢	$23	0x126c0e…
06-19 14:47:01	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	100¢	$1,195	0xaa76ce…
06-19 09:13:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$696	0x34df2b…
06-19 08:58:56	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xa13679…
06-18 10:43:25	will bryan johnson have sex again by june 30 20260605201524848	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x545e50…
06-17 14:39:29	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,008	100¢	$2,000	0x4260dd…
06-08 16:46:06	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x4b7bba…
06-08 16:42:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	289	94¢	$272	0xfd2389…
06-08 00:07:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x91367f…
06-08 00:02:54	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x8824fb…
06-06 02:34:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	95	92¢	$87	0xa1f675…
06-05 04:59:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	135	54¢	$73	0x597581…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xe8cb0e…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe4de29…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd6b9d9…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x8990de…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7b290d…
06-05 01:57:42	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x642b43…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd61936…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x49ea1c…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x2314a8…
06-05 01:42:28	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x43c921…
06-05 01:16:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	55	61¢	$34	0x023bcf…
06-05 01:02:30	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xc6489c…
06-05 00:35:52	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0xc28a25…
06-04 17:51:27	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	55	71¢	$39	0xf963c5…
06-04 17:09:37	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x2dc13c…
06-04 01:08:16	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xe9ffd2…
06-03 09:49:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x43959d…
06-03 09:36:23	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x91f01d…
06-03 06:59:29	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x9ce9de…
06-03 06:59:21	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x2c33d3…
06-03 06:44:44	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x62c50e…
06-03 05:55:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	34	83¢	$28	0xc5696e…
06-03 03:54:47	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xf933b7…
06-03 03:52:27	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x56cd5e…
06-03 01:04:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x638905…
06-02 15:37:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0x505496…
06-02 13:41:09	LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	EDward Gaming	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x16fb8d…
06-02 10:37:37	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	31	74¢	$23	0x0d6ebf…
06-02 10:36:44	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	26	74¢	$19	0x1c4ecd…
06-02 05:26:31	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	79	76¢	$60	0x8327a0…
06-02 04:59:27	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x084463…
06-02 04:44:54	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xf2c975…
06-02 04:44:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$37	0x5b3052…
06-01 17:12:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x15bd3b…
06-01 16:38:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xe06c9f…
06-01 11:54:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	64	80¢	$51	0xe65674…
06-01 11:52:21	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	41	80¢	$33	0xc827e9…
06-01 03:14:09	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x5c6971…
06-01 02:58:13	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0xa5fd54…
06-01 02:56:42	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x9990ad…
05-31 17:14:50	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	136	100¢	$136	0x56881f…
05-31 11:24:37	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0x106b1c…
05-31 05:39:17	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	215	81¢	$174	0xe2965b…
05-31 04:02:43	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x291303…
05-31 04:01:03	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x168949…
05-31 02:55:43	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x06aabe…
05-31 02:52:48	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4b4b58…
05-31 01:00:40	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xc66498…
05-31 01:00:24	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x678ab6…
05-31 01:00:03	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x3461f8…
05-30 13:38:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	96	72¢	$69	0x2c6e73…
05-30 03:30:39	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x029c23…
05-30 02:35:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	398	100¢	$396	0x306be0…
05-29 18:14:02	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	265	97¢	$257	0x93f575…
05-29 07:02:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	86	85¢	$73	0x7d71ab…
05-29 07:02:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x7cfe40…
05-29 06:10:45	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0x87e783…
05-29 05:35:37	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	93¢	$111	0x03d4fb…
05-29 05:17:16	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x80f1d9…
05-29 04:03:02	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x791ff5…