Roasted-Freon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

Trades

926

lifetime

Volume

$51.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

$85

1 position

First seen

2026-03-12

last 07-23 15:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

58% 33% $-40

Politics

27% 100% +$0

Tech

12% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes		+94	$75	90¢	$85	+$9	07-20 12:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	8	$8.4K	5,208	3,208	+2,000	open	—	06-25 14:39
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	42	$3.7K	2,050	2,050	+0	open	—	05-11 06:00
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	21	$1.9K	881	1,061	-180	open	—	05-31 17:14
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	45	$1.7K	1,106	1,106	+0	open	—	06-08 16:46
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt0 and 5pt5	4	$1.5K	774	774	+0	open	—	04-16 03:00
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	11	$1.4K	704	704	+0	open	—	04-10 03:11
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	51	$1.3K	971	971	+0	open	—	04-04 13:42
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$969	501	501	-0	open	—	05-15 07:23
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	33	$923	438	538	-100	open	—	05-15 14:05
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	5	$886	448	448	+0	Yes	+$5	05-02 11:07
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	6	$874	700	189	+511	open	—	04-30 06:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	14	$866	500	500	+0	open	—	03-25 12:48
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	18	$866	726	434	+291	open	—	07-22 16:57
will the dhs shutdown end between march 12 15 2026	3	$797	400	400	+0	open	—	03-15 06:54
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	10	$761	405	405	+0	open	—	04-01 03:33
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	2	$634	325	325	+0	open	—	05-28 16:44
will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	2	$597	200	400	-200	open	—	03-13 02:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$587	300	300	+0	open	—	04-10 11:01
will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	7	$578	300	300	+0	open	—	03-16 02:21
highest temperature in chengdu on april 12 2026 20c	7	$538	484	76	+407	open	—	04-12 11:39
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	7	$534	300	300	+0	open	—	04-21 23:24
cz binance of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	6	$530	533	10	+523	open	—	04-03 16:00
will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	3	$514	261	261	+0	open	—	03-20 06:25
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	22	$498	418	180	+238	open	—	04-23 14:42
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	12	$453	360	360	+0	open	—	06-21 11:15
cz binance of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	2	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	04-03 09:49
Will DeepSeek V4 be released on or prior to April 24, 2026?	4	$412	234	209	+25	open	—	04-24 03:33
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt5 and 6pt0	20	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	04-15 19:00
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?	3	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	04-24 02:59
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$395	200	200	+0	open	—	03-23 05:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 15:42:03	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x65d1d9…
07-23 02:23:13	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x27bff5…
07-22 16:57:46	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x5b4bf8…
07-22 12:49:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	No	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0xa5c50b…
07-21 23:14:39	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xdd0638…
07-20 12:00:25	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x718a2b…
07-19 21:35:40	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	96	92¢	$89	0x83d6c7…
07-19 15:41:57	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x123ccb…
07-17 15:29:15	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x22ec2c…
07-13 17:02:04	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xad1c08…
07-13 16:58:41	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xdb412c…
07-13 16:20:19	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	213	99¢	$211	0x92fe46…
07-13 16:03:53	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0xb1f814…
07-13 10:39:08	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$16	0xf307c5…
07-13 05:48:50	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd9e592…
07-13 05:48:26	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x60cbd3…
07-13 05:38:23	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	98	78¢	$77	0xc58454…
07-12 19:02:50	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	6	78¢	$4	0xf8bf3b…
07-12 14:42:04	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x18e97e…
07-12 13:33:10	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	SELL	31	25¢	$8	0x4a4b0f…
07-12 12:06:17	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x456199…
07-12 05:57:52	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x917fc2…
07-12 04:12:53	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	38	82¢	$31	0x499cd1…
07-12 04:09:22	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x1e3bdf…
07-12 03:16:41	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x194e5f…
07-11 15:03:50	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xc1cd50…
07-11 15:03:04	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	392	55¢	$216	0xe96dcb…
07-10 04:59:28	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x1b8d4c…
07-08 15:28:46	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0x60cc39…
07-08 15:27:41	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0xc7ed0a…
07-08 15:17:17	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xb95119…
07-08 14:59:22	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xb92e4b…
07-08 12:58:01	will gpt bidi 1 be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xb426e2…
07-08 12:54:31	btc updown 5m 1783515000	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xe541af…
07-08 12:49:44	btc updown 5m 1783515000	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x45c368…
07-08 10:49:29	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	89¢	$53	0x37a152…
07-08 05:19:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	SELL	151	1¢	$2	0x195274…
07-07 15:50:37	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0xceefd9…
07-07 12:32:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	16	20¢	$3	0x3ac02d…
07-07 03:10:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x27ad25…
07-06 20:28:14	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x6e9f1f…
07-06 15:23:04	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb75f83…
07-06 13:16:05	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x718966…
07-06 03:19:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	11	29¢	$3	0x469d34…
07-06 01:18:05	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x5d64fe…
07-03 23:37:19	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xe03d83…
07-03 21:33:32	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0xf002e7…
07-03 18:22:02	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x9c2255…
07-03 16:27:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xeb5d58…
07-03 16:18:08	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xdda376…
07-03 10:27:11	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x3bd775…
07-03 10:24:08	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd30b87…
07-03 09:03:01	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x3ae665…
07-02 15:16:38	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	75	99¢	$75	0xe3e6a7…
07-02 03:11:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xb56ccd…
07-02 02:10:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7f19b0…
06-30 23:00:13	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xfe93bb…
06-30 22:35:10	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	28	73¢	$20	0xba7139…
06-28 05:26:29	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	21	55¢	$11	0x3aded9…
06-26 06:44:16	will bryan johnson have sex again by june 30 20260605201524848	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x580ef8…
06-26 06:11:55	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe04e46…
06-25 14:39:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x5a46b5…
06-24 01:30:29	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,807	100¢	$1,802	0xfa528f…
06-23 07:26:41	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd58743…
06-23 06:44:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x2db802…
06-21 11:15:58	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	160	59¢	$94	0x880753…
06-21 01:40:35	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	76¢	$29	0x4df8ee…
06-21 01:20:43	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	121	70¢	$86	0x5800ab…
06-21 01:19:13	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	34¢	$68	0xd10817…
06-20 04:20:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x3dac67…
06-20 04:20:23	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x9d758b…
06-20 04:20:23	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x20cd86…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xfd3d86…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xca28c8…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	88¢	$42	0xa93c0d…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x6714a7…
06-20 04:20:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	88¢	$23	0x126c0e…
06-19 14:47:01	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	100¢	$1,195	0xaa76ce…
06-19 09:13:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$696	0x34df2b…
06-19 08:58:56	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xa13679…
06-18 10:43:25	will bryan johnson have sex again by june 30 20260605201524848	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x545e50…
06-17 14:39:29	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,008	100¢	$2,000	0x4260dd…
06-08 16:46:06	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x4b7bba…
06-08 16:42:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	289	94¢	$272	0xfd2389…
06-08 00:07:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x91367f…
06-08 00:02:54	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x8824fb…
06-06 02:34:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	95	92¢	$87	0xa1f675…
06-05 04:59:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	135	54¢	$73	0x597581…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xe8cb0e…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe4de29…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd6b9d9…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x8990de…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7b290d…
06-05 01:57:42	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x642b43…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd61936…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x49ea1c…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x2314a8…
06-05 01:42:28	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x43c921…
06-05 01:16:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	55	61¢	$34	0x023bcf…
06-05 01:02:30	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xc6489c…