Roasted-Freon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

Trades

842

lifetime

Volume

$40.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 06-08 16:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

49% 33% $-40

Politics

34% 100% +$0

Tech

13% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	42	$3.7K	2,050	2,050	+0	open	—	05-11 06:00
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	21	$1.9K	881	1,061	-180	open	—	05-31 17:14
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	45	$1.7K	1,106	1,106	+0	open	—	06-08 16:46
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt0 and 5pt5	4	$1.5K	774	774	+0	open	—	04-16 03:00
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	11	$1.4K	704	704	+0	open	—	04-10 03:11
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	51	$1.3K	971	971	+0	open	—	04-04 13:42
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$969	501	501	-0	open	—	05-15 07:23
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	33	$923	438	538	-100	open	—	05-15 14:05
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	5	$886	448	448	+0	Yes	+$5	05-02 11:07
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	6	$874	700	189	+511	open	—	04-30 06:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	14	$866	500	500	+0	open	—	03-25 12:48
will the dhs shutdown end between march 12 15 2026	3	$797	400	400	+0	open	—	03-15 06:54
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	10	$761	405	405	+0	open	—	04-01 03:33
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	2	$634	325	325	+0	open	—	05-28 16:44
will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663	2	$597	200	400	-200	open	—	03-13 02:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$587	300	300	+0	open	—	04-10 11:01
will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	7	$578	300	300	+0	open	—	03-16 02:21
highest temperature in chengdu on april 12 2026 20c	7	$538	484	76	+407	open	—	04-12 11:39
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	7	$534	300	300	+0	open	—	04-21 23:24
cz binance of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 0 19	6	$530	533	10	+523	open	—	04-03 16:00
will gpt 6 be released by march 31 2026	3	$514	261	261	+0	open	—	03-20 06:25
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	22	$498	418	180	+238	open	—	04-23 14:42
cz binance of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 60 79	2	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	04-03 09:49
Will DeepSeek V4 be released on or prior to April 24, 2026?	4	$412	234	209	+25	open	—	04-24 03:33
will china gdp growth in q1 2026 be between 5pt5 and 6pt0	20	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	04-15 19:00
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)?	3	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	04-24 02:59
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$395	200	200	+0	open	—	03-23 05:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$394	200	200	+0	open	—	04-17 17:24
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	3	$394	200	200	+0	open	—	04-28 03:33
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	3	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	04-07 02:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 16:46:06	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x4b7bba…
06-08 16:42:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	289	94¢	$272	0xfd2389…
06-08 00:07:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x91367f…
06-08 00:02:54	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x8824fb…
06-06 02:34:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	95	92¢	$87	0xa1f675…
06-05 04:59:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	135	54¢	$73	0x597581…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xe8cb0e…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe4de29…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd6b9d9…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x8990de…
06-05 01:57:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7b290d…
06-05 01:57:42	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x642b43…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xd61936…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x49ea1c…
06-05 01:57:39	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x2314a8…
06-05 01:42:28	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x43c921…
06-05 01:16:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	55	61¢	$34	0x023bcf…
06-05 01:02:30	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xc6489c…
06-05 00:35:52	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0xc28a25…
06-04 17:51:27	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	55	71¢	$39	0xf963c5…
06-04 17:09:37	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x2dc13c…
06-04 01:08:16	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xe9ffd2…
06-03 09:49:04	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x43959d…
06-03 09:36:23	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x91f01d…
06-03 06:59:29	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x9ce9de…
06-03 06:59:21	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x2c33d3…
06-03 06:44:44	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x62c50e…
06-03 05:55:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	34	83¢	$28	0xc5696e…
06-03 03:54:47	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xf933b7…
06-03 03:52:27	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x56cd5e…
06-03 01:04:07	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x638905…
06-02 15:37:48	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0x505496…
06-02 13:41:09	LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	EDward Gaming	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x16fb8d…
06-02 10:37:37	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	31	74¢	$23	0x0d6ebf…
06-02 10:36:44	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	26	74¢	$19	0x1c4ecd…
06-02 05:26:31	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	79	76¢	$60	0x8327a0…
06-02 04:59:27	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x084463…
06-02 04:44:54	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xf2c975…
06-02 04:44:43	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$37	0x5b3052…
06-01 17:12:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x15bd3b…
06-01 16:38:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xe06c9f…
06-01 11:54:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	64	80¢	$51	0xe65674…
06-01 11:52:21	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	41	80¢	$33	0xc827e9…
06-01 03:14:09	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x5c6971…
06-01 02:58:13	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0xa5fd54…
06-01 02:56:42	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x9990ad…
05-31 17:14:50	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	136	100¢	$136	0x56881f…
05-31 11:24:37	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0x106b1c…
05-31 05:39:17	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	215	81¢	$174	0xe2965b…
05-31 04:02:43	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x291303…
05-31 04:01:03	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x168949…
05-31 02:55:43	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x06aabe…
05-31 02:52:48	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4b4b58…
05-31 01:00:40	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xc66498…
05-31 01:00:24	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x678ab6…
05-31 01:00:03	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x3461f8…
05-30 13:38:46	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	96	72¢	$69	0x2c6e73…
05-30 03:30:39	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x029c23…
05-30 02:35:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	398	100¢	$396	0x306be0…
05-29 18:14:02	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	265	97¢	$257	0x93f575…
05-29 07:02:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	86	85¢	$73	0x7d71ab…
05-29 07:02:21	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x7cfe40…
05-29 06:10:45	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0x87e783…
05-29 05:35:37	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	93¢	$111	0x03d4fb…
05-29 05:17:16	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x80f1d9…
05-29 04:03:02	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x791ff5…
05-29 02:13:08	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	95¢	$58	0xd85891…
05-29 02:12:10	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	95¢	$64	0x6b15ac…
05-29 01:14:53	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	172	97¢	$167	0x79a92f…
05-28 16:44:18	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	325	99¢	$322	0x73046f…
05-28 16:41:42	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	325	96¢	$312	0xb47583…
05-20 05:17:29	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x5c034c…
05-20 05:14:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0xbe5fa1…
05-20 05:11:39	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x02fa8e…
05-20 04:47:19	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1da7cc…
05-20 02:53:26	Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	189	94¢	$178	0x7d6a56…
05-15 15:06:27	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0xe51f23…
05-15 14:59:53	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x03dc2c…
05-15 14:51:15	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x59e41a…
05-15 14:49:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	66	81¢	$53	0x88dffd…
05-15 14:44:36	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	54	82¢	$44	0x056462…
05-15 14:44:10	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xd76066…
05-15 14:08:09	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	45	75¢	$34	0x203299…
05-15 14:08:00	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x56092d…
05-15 14:05:56	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xeeb8e3…
05-15 14:05:24	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x5ad82a…
05-15 13:18:02	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	119	72¢	$85	0x8a7b69…
05-15 13:12:58	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x45969a…
05-15 13:01:19	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	75	74¢	$56	0x898676…
05-15 07:23:43	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	201	100¢	$200	0x9e4d98…
05-15 06:46:11	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	119	99¢	$118	0xa01bd7…
05-15 06:45:08	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc07365…
05-15 06:41:12	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	78	99¢	$78	0x5a55a8…
05-15 06:39:32	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x1037f8…
05-15 06:37:14	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x73400b…
05-15 05:53:29	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x00aeb4…
05-15 05:47:02	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	137	99¢	$137	0xd4c421…
05-15 05:45:52	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x47c3dd…
05-15 05:45:31	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x821f16…
05-15 05:08:02	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xe270a1…