Realized P&L
+$1.87K
Unrealized P&L
+$36
Hit rate
68.8%
Resolved
6,530
Trades
121,409
lifetime
Volume
$158.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$4
13 positions
First seen
2026-02-13
last 09-23 18:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 216 days
Categories
Other
64% 44% +$972
Politics
20% 49% +$774
Sports
8% 48% +$52
Crypto
8% 45% +$56
Pop-Culture
0% 52% +$3
Tech
0% 44% +$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
8 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +4 $0 57¢ $2 +$2 05-20 17:01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +2 -$23 84¢ $1 +$24 06-30 15:48
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +4 $0 6¢ $0 +$1 05-09 07:58
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -60 $0 0¢ $-0 +$0 04-29 21:34
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Yes +1 $0 4¢ $0 $0 05-11 15:33
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $0 6¢ $0 +$0 06-30 00:07
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes +4 $0 1¢ $0 $0 05-03 16:11
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes -1 $0 2¢ $-0 +$0 05-22 17:18
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? Yes +4 $0 0¢ $0 $0 07-16 19:34
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +0 -$9 40¢ $0 +$9 06-03 23:24
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes +1 $0 0¢ $0 +$0 07-31 11:36
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes -0 $0 3¢ $-0 +$0 07-17 07:27
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? Yes +0 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 05-24 21:25