Those-Orchard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

338

lifetime

Volume

$340

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 07-21 09:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

54% 0% $-0

Politics

25% 0% $-0

Crypto

10% 0% $-0

Tech

6% — —

Sports

4% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	14	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	03-01 01:01
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	7	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-30 00:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-02 01:17
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$-0	03-06 03:12
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-19 02:22
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-20 02:35
Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-13 00:50
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-20 02:36
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-16 00:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-26 00:48
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-23 00:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-26 09:56
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-06 00:14
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-30 00:57
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-25 08:36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 01:00
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-10 00:25
will trump say america or american 25 times during the 2026 state of the union address 819	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-24 00:47
Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-09 09:18
wix quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 18 2026 1pt47	3	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	02-10 01:02
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-10 00:52
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-25 01:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 00:12
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 00:27
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-11 00:37
Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-01 01:17
will bayern mnchen reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-12 00:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-27 00:40
us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-29 00:30
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$-0	04-27 00:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 09:52:04	over 250k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129594	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x200fc6…
07-21 09:51:46	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0b29a3…
07-20 00:57:37	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x5aea05…
07-20 00:43:43	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe9e0f8…
07-18 01:02:55	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf40f5d…
07-18 00:53:03	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0493c2…
07-17 09:38:13	netanyahu out by july 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x358dda…
07-17 09:30:21	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x14f846…
07-16 00:30:20	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 17 2026 20260714210303207	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xed0224…
07-16 00:29:56	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdb8148…
07-16 00:06:26	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 17 2026 20260714210303207	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd0888f…
07-16 00:04:52	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa4b7fc…
07-15 00:44:20	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa0d84e…
07-15 00:44:05	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x73fd00…
07-15 00:34:11	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8b3d9b…
07-15 00:27:17	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd5478a…
07-14 06:59:37	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x67af75…
07-14 06:59:20	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd4bb97…
07-14 06:51:13	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x678e56…
07-14 06:48:28	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9dd637…
07-13 00:29:01	over 2m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325641	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xac4256…
07-13 00:02:16	over 2m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325641	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5c9dc0…
07-10 00:16:40	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6f4fd4…
07-10 00:16:19	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe9ede8…
07-09 23:58:44	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x433c0c…
07-09 23:57:04	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7e4b5f…
07-09 09:18:17	Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe7ac8e…
07-09 09:10:34	Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x350604…
07-08 00:25:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2531a5…
07-08 00:05:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xedcb49…
07-07 10:03:04	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbd017a…
07-07 09:48:56	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4bdcc5…
07-06 00:14:50	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e7 s9 20260630142926977	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x585054…
07-06 00:14:34	Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7342f9…
07-06 00:06:56	Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf0d4bb…
07-06 00:02:35	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e7 s9 20260630142926977	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x80dd0d…
07-04 00:17:55	Will Truist fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xaf1a6f…
07-04 00:06:40	Will Truist fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x20e8d1…
07-03 01:22:17	Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x20f8e8…
07-03 01:12:34	Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3dbc07…
07-02 00:42:59	will lab dip to 6 before 2027	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4846c5…
07-02 00:41:56	will polymarket mindshare hit 70 by december 31 20260630144203054	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc1b518…
07-02 00:12:23	will polymarket mindshare hit 70 by december 31 20260630144203054	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0d1888…
07-02 00:09:20	will lab dip to 6 before 2027	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x424f31…
07-01 00:27:50	Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9482d0…
07-01 00:17:43	Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x246075…
06-30 06:26:50	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1ae286…
06-30 04:44:56	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x84b13b…
06-29 00:30:02	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x93bbba…
06-29 00:22:04	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9783a0…
06-27 00:27:22	Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb7fd62…
06-27 00:14:19	Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x469635…
06-26 09:56:25	will marco rubio attend nato summit	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9b0c7d…
06-26 09:56:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x82e4de…
06-26 09:44:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbc6a9b…
06-26 09:40:34	will marco rubio attend nato summit	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf01827…
06-25 00:43:14	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf51686…
06-25 00:21:38	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x852d94…
06-24 03:51:22	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1b8937…
06-24 03:51:05	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by september 30 20260622183223873	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x273bbb…
06-24 03:34:56	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8eac71…
06-24 03:18:41	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by september 30 20260622183223873	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa20abf…
06-23 01:00:19	will the announcers say header during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729501	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb8ea8e…
06-23 00:59:58	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xcd3377…
06-23 00:44:49	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xddfc84…
06-23 00:40:53	will the announcers say header during the england vs ghana fifa world cup match 20260622180729501	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8d4b8c…
06-22 07:26:16	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9d2ed7…
06-22 07:15:23	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbfb528…
06-21 01:02:41	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x990a2b…
06-21 00:46:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1402de…
06-16 00:56:43	will spacex have fewer than 11 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x746ad9…
06-16 00:40:25	will spacex have fewer than 11 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9f5e54…
06-15 00:48:57	Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xffe112…
06-15 00:48:43	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x15a99e…
06-15 00:37:31	Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf330a5…
06-13 00:35:33	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x347473…
06-12 00:30:57	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2dedf2…
06-12 00:30:33	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1f8368…
06-12 00:18:48	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d8834…
06-12 00:16:25	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6fcf9d…
06-11 00:56:34	xrp above 0pt6 on june 13 2026	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd30d23…
06-11 00:54:58	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb88ddd…
06-11 00:34:21	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa780f0…
06-11 00:29:13	xrp above 0pt6 on june 13 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xeaa3da…
06-10 00:53:22	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1764d0…
06-10 00:52:54	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xef73d1…
06-10 00:26:12	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf3771e…
06-10 00:22:45	will elon musk be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212474	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa6eb8b…
06-09 00:45:10	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 30 20260607232624537	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x56a5c2…
06-09 00:44:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x80582d…
06-09 00:36:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfaeda5…
06-09 00:31:52	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 30 20260607232624537	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6b90d5…
06-08 00:38:49	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf2a5c1…
06-08 00:38:34	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x2407e9…
06-08 00:26:57	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa968b3…
06-08 00:23:51	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4c6047…
06-06 00:44:49	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x454bc4…
06-06 00:11:58	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdee809…
06-05 00:50:52	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x191803…
06-05 00:49:25	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x94ccc3…