Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$400
Trades
88
Unique wallets
25
Liquidity
$5,169
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-30
last 07-25 20:31
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $3 | $151 | $148 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $0 | $80 | $80 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 9 | $4 | $11 | $7 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| Median | 9 | — | $172 | $172 |
| Below median | 5 | $1 | $36 | $34 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| unranked | 3 | $4 | $35 | $31 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | +44 | $42 | $191 | 5 | 07-25 20:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | +40 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 05:21 |
| Wet-Event 0x6236…6881 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 23:23 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +20 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 07-02 03:09 |
| Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | +6 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-01 19:42 |
| Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-01 19:42 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 5 | 07-03 01:12 |
| Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 16:59 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 20:31:16 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 16 | 98¢ | $15 | 0xea9f08… |
| 07-25 20:31:16 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 56 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xea9f08… |
| 07-23 07:29:42 | Standard-Jackal 0x5f3e…5337 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4e5d1d… |
| 07-23 07:29:42 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0x4e5d1d… |
| 07-21 05:21:52 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 18 | 97¢ | $18 | 0xeadf14… |
| 07-21 05:21:52 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xeadf14… |
| 07-21 05:21:48 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 18 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x8b73ef… |
| 07-21 05:21:48 | (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x8b73ef… |
| 07-21 05:21:48 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x8b73ef… |
| 07-15 14:16:25 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | Yes | SELL | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x1e1864… |
| 07-15 14:16:25 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x1e1864… |
| 07-11 05:01:05 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7d827a… |
| 07-11 05:01:05 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x7d827a… |
| 07-09 20:29:04 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x53fb9d… |
| 07-09 20:29:04 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x53fb9d… |
| 07-09 20:29:02 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xaa13ce… |
| 07-09 20:29:02 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xaa13ce… |
| 07-09 20:29:01 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0x95a4ac… |
| 07-09 20:29:01 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 15 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x95a4ac… |
| 07-09 20:28:59 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb30a9c… |
| 07-09 20:28:59 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xb30a9c… |
| 07-09 20:28:28 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x51c6b2… |
| 07-09 20:28:28 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x51c6b2… |
| 07-09 20:28:28 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 70 | 98¢ | $68 | 0x51c6b2… |
| 07-09 20:28:28 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x51c6b2… |
| 07-09 09:34:04 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 15 | 97¢ | $15 | 0x040450… |
| 07-09 09:34:04 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 17 | 97¢ | $17 | 0x040450… |
| 07-09 09:34:04 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 37 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x040450… |
| 07-09 09:18:20 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1478ba… |
| 07-09 09:18:20 | Shabby-Concern 0x6ea2…e79c | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x1478ba… |
| 07-09 09:18:17 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7f6f3d… |
| 07-09 09:18:17 | Those-Orchard 0xbb6c…8ac0 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xe7ac8e… |
| 07-09 09:18:17 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xe7ac8e… |
| 07-09 09:18:17 | Drafty-Tourist 0x6934…10c6 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x7f6f3d… |
| 07-09 09:18:16 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xab4321… |
| 07-09 09:18:16 | Frank-Millennium 0x38f3…4323 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xab4321… |
| 07-09 09:18:14 | Mad-Jelly 0x30c6…a4fd | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xee20f5… |
| 07-09 09:18:14 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xee20f5… |
| 07-09 09:10:35 | Shabby-Concern 0x6ea2…e79c | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x180624… |
| 07-09 09:10:35 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x180624… |
| 07-09 09:10:35 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 0 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x180624… |
| 07-09 09:10:34 | Those-Orchard 0xbb6c…8ac0 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x350604… |
| 07-09 09:10:34 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x350604… |
| 07-09 09:10:32 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x9d0dc4… |
| 07-09 09:10:32 | Drafty-Tourist 0x6934…10c6 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xaf3276… |
| 07-09 09:10:32 | Frank-Millennium 0x38f3…4323 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x9d0dc4… |
| 07-09 09:10:32 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xaf3276… |
| 07-09 09:10:31 | Mad-Jelly 0x30c6…a4fd | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8a614d… |
| 07-09 09:10:31 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8a614d… |
| 07-08 21:01:55 | Delectable-Shopper 0x3c27…97c2 | No | SELL | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0x4dfd11… |
| 07-08 21:01:55 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | SELL | 36 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x4dfd11… |
| 07-08 20:47:38 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1be16e… |
| 07-08 20:47:38 | Gigantic-Ramen 0x3bbc…a2b1 | Yes | BUY | 78 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x1be16e… |
| 07-08 20:47:38 | Delectable-Shopper 0x3c27…97c2 | No | BUY | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0x1be16e… |
| 07-08 20:47:38 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 15 | 97¢ | $15 | 0x1be16e… |
| 07-06 19:30:31 | Standard-Jackal 0x5f3e…5337 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0e7e6f… |
| 07-06 19:30:31 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0e7e6f… |
| 07-03 01:22:26 | Shabby-Concern 0x6ea2…e79c | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x096f77… |
| 07-03 01:22:26 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x096f77… |
| 07-03 01:22:19 | Frank-Millennium 0x38f3…4323 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9edc9e… |
| 07-03 01:22:19 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x9edc9e… |
| 07-03 01:22:17 | Those-Orchard 0xbb6c…8ac0 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x20f8e8… |
| 07-03 01:22:17 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x20f8e8… |
| 07-03 01:22:16 | Mad-Jelly 0x30c6…a4fd | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x604f03… |
| 07-03 01:22:16 | Drafty-Tourist 0x6934…10c6 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xa02e80… |
| 07-03 01:22:16 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xa02e80… |
| 07-03 01:22:16 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x604f03… |
| 07-03 01:12:35 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x2f8ad1… |
| 07-03 01:12:35 | Shabby-Concern 0x6ea2…e79c | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x2f8ad1… |
| 07-03 01:12:34 | Those-Orchard 0xbb6c…8ac0 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x3dbc07… |
| 07-03 01:12:34 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x3dbc07… |
| 07-03 01:12:32 | Frank-Millennium 0x38f3…4323 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x31625d… |
| 07-03 01:12:32 | Drafty-Tourist 0x6934…10c6 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xd99d5a… |
| 07-03 01:12:32 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x31625d… |
| 07-03 01:12:32 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd99d5a… |
| 07-03 01:12:31 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe2188d… |
| 07-03 01:12:31 | Mad-Jelly 0x30c6…a4fd | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xe2188d… |
| 07-02 03:09:04 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 19 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7232d3… |
| 07-02 03:09:04 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7232d3… |
| 07-02 03:09:04 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7232d3… |
| 07-01 19:42:44 | Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x56347a… |
| 07-01 19:42:44 | Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | BUY | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x56347a… |
| 07-01 16:59:58 | Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xa583e5… |
| 07-01 16:59:58 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xa583e5… |
| 06-30 23:23:11 | Wet-Event 0x6236…6881 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfa73be… |
| 06-30 23:23:11 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xfa73be… |
| 06-30 23:23:11 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xfa73be… |
| 06-30 23:23:11 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfa73be… |