Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$203

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

91.9%

Resolved

333

Trades

880

lifetime

Volume

$5.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$340

15 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 11-02 16:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

85% 89% +$214

Crypto

6% 84% -$10

Politics

4% 91% -$33

Sports

4% 100% +$32

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	+57	$54	98¢	$56	+$2	11-01 16:41
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	+41	$39	97¢	$40	+$1	10-31 23:50
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+35	$34	98¢	$34	+$0	11-01 21:12
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+35	$34	97¢	$34	+$0	11-02 10:55
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+35	$33	96¢	$33	+$0	11-01 21:01
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+30	$29	97¢	$29	+$0	11-02 07:24
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	+30	$28	96¢	$29	+$1	10-31 12:07
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$19	97¢	$19	+$0	11-01 19:51
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$19	91¢	$18	-$1	11-02 07:56
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+15	$14	96¢	$14	+$0	10-31 09:46
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+11	$11	98¢	$11	+$0	10-08 10:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+10	$7	68¢	$7	$0	09-29 18:23
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	$0	10-31 07:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+5	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	10-29 06:08
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+5	$5	96¢	$5	+$0	10-31 07:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	20	$143	156	0	+156	Yes	+$13	10-28 14:02
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	12	$137	70	70	+0	Yes	+$2	11-01 00:00
will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	14	$125	135	0	+135	Yes	+$10	02-20 12:37
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	14	$125	130	0	+130	No	+$5	10-13 10:44
will silver si hit high 130 by end of january 314 277 552 989	13	$114	125	0	+125	No	+$11	01-29 13:22
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	19	$112	121	0	+121	Yes	+$9	10-28 09:18
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	17	$111	140	0	+140	Yes	+$29	10-20 12:48
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	19	$102	125	20	+105	No	+$36	01-26 21:07
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government?	9	$99	120	0	+120	No	+$21	10-18 02:39
Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	11	$92	100	0	+100	No	+$8	09-30 11:20
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	16	$90	101	0	+101	Yes	+$11	02-14 07:52
Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?	9	$83	92	0	+92	open	—	11-02 03:43
Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary?	10	$70	72	0	+72	open	—	11-02 16:47
will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356	12	$64	70	0	+70	No	+$6	02-08 02:23
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	9	$54	57	0	+57	open	—	11-01 16:41
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	9	$53	56	0	+56	Yes	+$3	10-28 11:22
will germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	9	$49	55	0	+55	No	+$5	02-07 20:16
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by january 31 2026	6	$48	50	0	+50	No	+$2	01-31 17:21
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?	8	$48	55	0	+55	No	+$7	10-13 18:02
will the highest temperature in new york city be 24 25f on february 1	3	$44	23	23	+0	Yes	+$1	02-01 21:53
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR?	5	$44	45	0	+45	No	+$1	10-09 18:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	10	$42	50	0	+50	Yes	-$42	02-18 21:49
highest temperature in buenos aires on february 3 2026 37corbelow	11	$42	30	30	+0	Yes	-$9	02-03 16:22
will silver si hit high 160 by end of february 597 366 984 937	7	$41	45	0	+45	No	+$4	02-04 20:22
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 1	11	$40	45	0	+45	Yes	+$5	02-02 00:34
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	7	$39	41	0	+41	open	—	10-31 23:50
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	7	$39	41	0	+41	open	—	11-01 09:26
Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	6	$38	40	0	+40	open	—	10-31 17:15
will the us add more than 125k jobs in january	8	$37	41	0	+41	Yes	-$37	02-11 13:30
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	5	$36	40	0	+40	No	+$4	01-31 14:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 16:47:12	Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcc1182…
11-02 11:58:15	Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-05?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x856728…
11-02 10:55:18	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd37084…
11-02 09:01:10	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x78c4a5…
11-02 07:56:46	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x856719…
11-02 07:24:01	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa5ff39…
11-02 06:46:42	Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x769d9e…
11-02 03:43:10	Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x9ba2c2…
11-01 21:12:57	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf1c461…
11-01 21:02:00	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x6569a3…
11-01 21:01:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x94841c…
11-01 20:50:46	Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-11-05?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xf9ab37…
11-01 20:49:27	Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-11-05?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x5842c1…
11-01 20:46:42	Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x0d33aa…
11-01 20:45:52	Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x666373…
11-01 20:45:12	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xc70c6a…
11-01 20:44:30	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2abbc8…
11-01 20:43:54	Will AEK win on 2026-11-04?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x177aa3…
11-01 20:43:31	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-11-03?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x6c7f75…
11-01 20:42:46	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-03?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xa01b91…
11-01 20:41:27	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-11-03?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x47e9f4…
11-01 20:40:45	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xe90be7…
11-01 19:51:51	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x535fd7…
11-01 19:35:37	Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8ad291…
11-01 18:54:03	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x561452…
11-01 17:19:43	Will FC Alverca win on 2026-11-02?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x39eaa0…
11-01 16:41:00	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xd310a0…
11-01 09:26:34	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x83912f…
11-01 06:47:39	Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xf88fe9…
11-01 06:02:28	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd8e158…
11-01 00:00:01	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x54caba…
10-31 23:50:42	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xba081f…
10-31 22:34:16	Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xb3bc6e…
10-31 19:39:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x65d825…
10-31 17:15:22	Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x74a5c4…
10-31 12:07:18	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x928bd8…
10-31 10:29:04	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x458849…
10-31 09:46:30	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8fbf85…
10-31 09:45:31	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5fd356…
10-31 09:17:28	Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xab210c…
10-31 09:12:54	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xc16df5…
10-31 08:37:40	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xa2da23…
10-31 08:12:19	Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9ada96…
10-31 08:03:09	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5016da…
10-31 07:32:42	AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xeb0ce6…
10-31 07:25:25	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x507d33…
10-31 07:22:00	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x9a0421…
10-31 07:20:36	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x41811c…
10-31 07:20:22	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x8cf78f…
10-31 05:47:31	Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xd511fe…
10-31 05:25:13	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xfaed75…
10-31 02:43:22	Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x01dd19…
10-31 02:38:45	Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xfb6346…
10-30 23:07:45	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x39309c…
10-30 21:32:55	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-10-30?	No	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0xfd9746…
10-30 19:08:24	Will Willem II Tilburg win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa3cae9…
10-30 19:05:28	Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x13e0ef…
10-30 19:04:46	Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-10-30?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x83096f…
10-30 19:02:22	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xe13bd3…
10-30 19:01:55	Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-10-30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe49a3c…
10-30 19:00:31	Will Venezia FC win on 2026-11-01?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x0de14c…
10-30 18:59:54	Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?	No	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x38de71…
10-30 18:57:46	Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x6953f1…
10-30 18:56:43	FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x39604c…
10-30 18:22:13	Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x2e2f74…
10-30 17:15:31	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x258181…
10-30 15:02:22	Will Lara Trump be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7a4103…
10-30 13:47:22	Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xeb87e7…
10-30 08:54:27	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb6b634…
10-30 08:20:07	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x259115…
10-30 08:10:07	Will UBS fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x02e7f0…
10-30 07:45:09	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf17158…
10-30 07:45:04	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8273a3…
10-30 05:46:25	Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x80e9e1…
10-30 05:46:06	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xf0e331…
10-29 19:15:36	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xca1cb9…
10-29 17:17:23	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xd90850…
10-29 17:11:22	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x91f0cb…
10-29 15:57:49	Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x778599…
10-29 14:48:16	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd0b4dc…
10-29 14:48:16	Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x127f4d…
10-29 12:56:28	Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x729e2a…
10-29 12:41:49	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	94¢	$3	0x49ffb7…
10-29 11:21:04	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xebf86f…
10-29 08:00:05	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x874ba8…
10-29 07:50:05	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd3a028…
10-29 07:08:04	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x211362…
10-29 06:55:23	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xdfb9c0…
10-29 06:29:17	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc78f52…
10-29 06:19:41	Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x774ffe…
10-29 06:18:35	Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xb91b60…
10-29 06:18:02	Will Málaga CF win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xc4bf5e…
10-29 06:16:53	Will Levante UD win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x4d7c95…
10-29 06:16:08	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-10-30?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xbd0bc1…
10-29 06:15:04	Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1c2231…
10-29 06:13:47	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x58f73c…
10-29 06:13:10	Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4c1d83…
10-29 06:08:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfb8663…
10-29 05:45:11	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3c365c…
10-28 23:00:26	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xaf5c98…