Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$460
$200 in 24h
Trades
33
Unique wallets
13
Liquidity
$6,561
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 08-07 16:47
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-2.0¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $93
vs crowd: 2% YES on $321)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $1 | $162 | $161 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $2 | $152 | $150 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3 | $3 | $1 | +$2 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $93 | $93 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $1 | $9 | $8 |
| Median | 2 | — | $212 | $212 |
| Below median | 4 | $2 | $1 | +$1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| unranked | 2 | $2 | — | +$2 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | +79 | $75 | $211 | 6 | 08-07 16:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +74 | $69 | $69 | 4 | 08-04 09:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | +64 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 05:22 |
| Enchanting-Cable 0x84a2…c7cf | Yes | +40 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-25 18:18 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +24 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-29 01:33 |
| Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | +20 | $0 | $1 | 5 | 08-07 08:01 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-04 21:58 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-01 16:59 |
| Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 16:59 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 16:47:43 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x69d3c6… |
| 08-07 16:47:43 | (anonymous) 0xfcc4…f3da | Yes | SELL | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x69d3c6… |
| 08-07 08:01:33 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 29 | 97¢ | $28 | 0x4af106… |
| 08-07 08:01:33 | (anonymous) 0xfcc4…f3da | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x4af106… |
| 08-07 08:01:33 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x4af106… |
| 08-04 21:58:41 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x036caa… |
| 08-04 21:58:41 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x036caa… |
| 08-04 21:58:39 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x38f30d… |
| 08-04 21:58:39 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x38f30d… |
| 08-04 21:58:36 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb50f20… |
| 08-04 21:58:36 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb50f20… |
| 08-04 21:58:36 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0xb50f20… |
| 08-04 21:58:36 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xb50f20… |
| 08-04 09:50:57 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x6354f7… |
| 08-04 09:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 14 | 90¢ | $13 | 0x6354f7… |
| 08-04 09:50:57 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | SELL | 24 | 91¢ | $22 | 0x6354f7… |
| 08-04 09:50:29 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 30 | 94¢ | $28 | 0x894231… |
| 08-04 09:50:29 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | SELL | 70 | 94¢ | $66 | 0x894231… |
| 08-04 09:50:29 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x894231… |
| 07-25 18:18:28 | Enchanting-Cable 0x84a2…c7cf | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x8b3e2d… |
| 07-25 18:18:28 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $39 | 0x8b3e2d… |
| 07-21 05:22:19 | (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | BUY | 64 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x502415… |
| 07-21 05:22:19 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | BUY | 35 | 98¢ | $35 | 0x502415… |
| 07-21 05:22:19 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x502415… |
| 07-01 16:59:47 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc09344… |
| 07-01 16:59:47 | Black-And-White-Consensus 0x6415…f1ab | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xc09344… |
| 06-29 16:21:34 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | BUY | 49 | 98¢ | $48 | 0x43efbb… |
| 06-29 16:21:34 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 49 | 98¢ | $48 | 0x43efbb… |
| 06-29 05:05:59 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4fa0f0… |
| 06-29 05:05:59 | Fluid-Deadline 0xdc4f…4652 | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x4fa0f0… |
| 05-29 01:33:58 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe939fd… |
| 05-29 01:33:58 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe939fd… |
| 05-29 01:33:58 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | BUY | 49 | 96¢ | $47 | 0xe939fd… |