Those-Orchard — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

499 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$500 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 08-03 00:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

55% 1% -$2

Politics

26% 0% -$1

Crypto

9% 0% $0

Tech

6% 0% $0

Sports

3% 14% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-03).

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	14	$14	7	7	+0	No	$0	03-01 01:01
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	7	$8	4	4	+0	Yes	$0	03-30 00:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	04-02 01:17
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-06 03:12
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-06 00:14
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	04-29 00:32
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-19 02:22
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	03-20 02:35
Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	04-13 00:50
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	03-20 02:36
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	04-16 00:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	05-26 00:48
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-10 00:52
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	06-23 00:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	06-26 09:56
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	06-13 00:47
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	06-15 00:48
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	03-30 00:57
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-08 00:25
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	03-25 08:36
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	05-18 00:21
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	No	$0	04-10 00:25
will trump say america or american 25 times during the 2026 state of the union address 819	4	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	02-24 00:47
Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-09 09:18
wix quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 18 2026 1pt47	3	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	02-10 01:02
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$0	06-25 00:42
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$0	05-25 01:34
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	$0	06-27 00:27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	$0	04-18 00:12
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 00:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 00:34:59	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x58c90a…
08-03 00:34:29	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd3ea71…
08-03 00:22:03	us announces withdrawal from al udeid air base by sep 30 20260626182408440	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc2227a…
08-03 00:15:50	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7dda7f…
07-31 00:43:47	will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260727151618909	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x184d6e…
07-31 00:43:32	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x629f7b…
07-31 00:33:14	will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260727151618909	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0ce373…
07-31 00:13:15	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xec1205…
07-30 01:03:56	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xba1852…
07-30 01:03:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xaf7755…
07-30 00:46:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8a0538…
07-30 00:39:30	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb896e9…
07-29 07:43:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 4?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x79a70b…
07-29 07:43:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x330749…
07-29 07:35:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x18948c…
07-29 07:32:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 4?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x799ef7…
07-28 01:28:52	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x04c269…
07-28 01:28:28	Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe233b4…
07-28 01:15:06	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfd8ec6…
07-28 01:08:04	Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8fdf54…
07-27 00:40:28	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x03a41a…
07-27 00:40:07	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xeaf657…
07-27 00:17:48	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9d0781…
07-27 00:09:27	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5dd1d3…
07-25 00:52:27	Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x340169…
07-25 00:52:10	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x709a20…
07-25 00:45:54	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x92eb83…
07-25 00:36:16	Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xee690c…
07-24 09:43:28	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 23 2026 20260722224646692	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xef8a58…
07-24 09:43:12	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5fbd63…
07-24 09:33:28	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 23 2026 20260722224646692	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x85cdcd…
07-24 09:31:34	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x68bc6e…
07-23 00:56:13	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x104655…
07-23 00:55:58	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9143a4…
07-23 00:49:28	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8e66a6…
07-23 00:43:45	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xfff016…
07-22 00:57:39	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0d034c…
07-22 00:57:21	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc9cafb…
07-22 00:41:27	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x318d27…
07-22 00:39:07	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x64aa02…
07-21 09:52:04	over 250k committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129594	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x200fc6…
07-21 09:51:46	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0b29a3…
07-21 09:39:25	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xda4689…
07-21 09:35:43	Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x369c10…
07-20 00:57:37	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x5aea05…
07-20 00:57:19	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x20620c…
07-20 00:43:43	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe9e0f8…
07-20 00:33:07	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x244f00…
07-18 01:02:55	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf40f5d…
07-18 01:00:52	Will the Democratic Party win the IL-07 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1714e1…
07-18 00:53:03	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0493c2…
07-18 00:50:00	Will the Democratic Party win the IL-07 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf456f6…
07-17 09:38:37	Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x53d3a6…
07-17 09:38:13	netanyahu out by july 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x358dda…
07-17 09:30:21	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x14f846…
07-17 09:27:18	Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc20d0c…
07-16 00:30:20	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 17 2026 20260714210303207	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xed0224…
07-16 00:29:56	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdb8148…
07-16 00:06:26	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 17 2026 20260714210303207	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd0888f…
07-16 00:04:52	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa4b7fc…
07-15 00:44:20	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa0d84e…
07-15 00:44:05	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x73fd00…
07-15 00:34:11	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8b3d9b…
07-15 00:27:17	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd5478a…
07-14 06:59:37	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x67af75…
07-14 06:59:20	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd4bb97…
07-14 06:51:13	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x678e56…
07-14 06:48:28	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9dd637…
07-13 00:29:01	over 2m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325641	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xac4256…
07-13 00:28:46	Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x92ec97…
07-13 00:06:31	Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x061bc2…
07-13 00:02:16	over 2m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325641	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5c9dc0…
07-11 07:02:20	Will White House post 0-19 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x00bbdb…
07-11 07:01:16	Will Tom Perriello be the VA-05 Democratic nominee?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x9cb8fc…
07-11 06:50:46	Will White House post 0-19 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd423fd…
07-11 06:48:10	Will Tom Perriello be the VA-05 Democratic nominee?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3da6d9…
07-10 00:16:40	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6f4fd4…
07-10 00:16:19	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe9ede8…
07-09 23:58:44	fda approves outlook therapeutics ons 5010 07 29 2026	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x433c0c…
07-09 23:57:04	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7e4b5f…
07-09 09:18:40	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x22aa86…
07-09 09:18:17	Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe7ac8e…
07-09 09:10:34	Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x350604…
07-09 09:08:11	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xffcb6f…
07-08 00:25:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2531a5…
07-08 00:25:04	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf3f7a9…
07-08 00:11:10	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xca78b8…
07-08 00:05:50	iran successfully targets shipping on july 7 20260625225210248	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xedcb49…
07-07 10:03:19	Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe1b90d…
07-07 10:03:04	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbd017a…
07-07 09:51:52	Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x72ec88…
07-07 09:48:56	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4bdcc5…
07-06 00:14:50	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e7 s9 20260630142926977	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x585054…
07-06 00:14:34	Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7342f9…
07-06 00:06:56	Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf0d4bb…
07-06 00:02:35	will anyone say rick 20 times during rick and morty e7 s9 20260630142926977	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x80dd0d…
07-04 00:17:55	Will Truist fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xaf1a6f…
07-04 00:17:40	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x7560ca…
07-04 00:06:40	Will Truist fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x20e8d1…
07-04 00:02:25	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd79e5b…