Giving-Mobster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$372

Unrealized P&L

-$109

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

562

Trades

3,051

lifetime

Volume

$27.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$37

8 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 10-30 23:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Other

86% 48% +$120

Tech

6% 50% +$27

Politics

5% 29% +$264

Crypto

2% 43% -$59

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$1

Sports

0% 75% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+162	$33	8¢	$12	-$21	10-07 19:46
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+15	$7	57¢	$8	+$1	10-13 08:49
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	+77	$12	9¢	$7	-$5	10-07 19:31
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+41	$37	14¢	$6	-$31	10-07 01:56
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	+115	$55	3¢	$3	-$52	10-05 01:30
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+11	-$9	1¢	$0	+$9	09-02 13:27
will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	Yes	+39	$11	0¢	$0	-$11	08-25 19:00
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+0	-$2	4¢	$0	+$2	10-03 03:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	20	$738	1,512	1,301	+211	open	—	10-30 11:00
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	22	$697	1,549	1,475	+74	open	—	10-26 08:59
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	27	$678	2,055	856	+1,198	open	—	10-30 20:14
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	15	$634	707	674	+33	open	—	10-26 12:02
will openais frontier output token price be at or below 30 in 2026	32	$597	733	715	+18	open	—	10-14 20:04
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?	10	$539	419	419	+0	open	—	10-17 09:17
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	21	$522	649	544	+105	open	—	10-30 11:16
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	5	$490	534	534	+0	open	—	10-09 08:31
Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?	37	$488	1,637	1,681	-44	open	—	10-30 11:03
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?	18	$474	940	940	+0	open	—	10-23 08:40
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	11	$457	492	420	+72	Yes	+$111	08-17 18:36
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be above 4%?	19	$447	651	566	+85	open	—	10-27 12:10
Will Seoul have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	2	$419	344	344	+0	open	—	10-14 07:43
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	20	$414	443	334	+110	Yes	+$90	08-12 09:28
Will the median home value in Miami be between $809,000 and $830,000 on December 31?	7	$414	880	442	+438	open	—	10-30 10:43
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	9	$381	240	240	+0	Yes	+$27	09-20 15:29
Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	24	$371	866	706	+159	open	—	10-27 17:51
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	10	$353	271	271	+0	Yes	+$89	08-11 15:47
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	7	$345	351	251	+100	open	—	10-30 19:14
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	4	$329	229	229	+0	Yes	+$35	08-30 22:02
Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be under 5%?	7	$310	777	777	+0	open	—	10-10 12:14
Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 7.90 ft MLLW or more?	11	$307	238	238	+0	open	—	10-30 18:17
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	17	$285	322	313	+9	No	+$55	07-29 21:09
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $397,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	15	$266	780	424	+355	open	—	10-15 12:00
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	17	$264	225	225	+0	open	—	10-11 17:52
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	15	$253	488	488	+0	open	—	09-20 16:52
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	9	$241	225	225	+0	No	+$44	08-11 09:24
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	21	$237	280	280	+0	No	+$10	08-24 10:43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	24	$227	180	180	+0	No	+$77	06-20 09:46
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	11	$211	194	181	+13	Yes	+$10	08-13 15:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 23:32:27	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0xc5bdf4…
10-30 22:15:12	Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x4f08d0…
10-30 22:10:04	Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	61	31¢	$19	0xd9ea38…
10-30 22:09:04	Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	39	31¢	$12	0xb7b73a…
10-30 20:42:36	Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x1f503a…
10-30 20:21:52	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	108	84¢	$91	0x035006…
10-30 20:14:40	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xdb6c20…
10-30 19:14:36	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x105fec…
10-30 18:17:54	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 7.90 ft MLLW or more?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x59a927…
10-30 15:05:27	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xf2188a…
10-30 14:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x4080b1…
10-30 14:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x7623d6…
10-30 14:07:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0x45ee68…
10-30 14:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x015326…
10-30 14:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xac6e02…
10-30 14:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	69	16¢	$11	0x1032f6…
10-30 13:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xf173d1…
10-30 13:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x6d65ae…
10-30 13:52:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	112	15¢	$17	0xd79ada…
10-30 13:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	112	10¢	$11	0xd500df…
10-30 13:48:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x6de8e3…
10-30 13:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	14	54¢	$7	0x619fd6…
10-30 13:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x0f5c50…
10-30 13:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x232515…
10-30 13:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	38	9¢	$3	0xbb687e…
10-30 13:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0x237664…
10-30 13:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x3ba8cd…
10-30 13:04:52	Will the median home value in NYC be less than $445,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x6c1f14…
10-30 11:16:24	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x01f8a3…
10-30 11:03:09	Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0xc29aa6…
10-30 11:00:48	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x1b69fe…
10-30 10:59:13	Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	204	29¢	$60	0xe7fb81…
10-30 10:43:54	Will the median home value in Miami be between $809,000 and $830,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	333	28¢	$93	0x2b8d80…
10-30 10:35:39	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	111	46¢	$51	0x05540a…
10-29 19:24:46	Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x438281…
10-29 16:54:14	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 7.90 ft MLLW or more?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xc8a33c…
10-29 16:02:28	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	97¢	$68	0xdb7812…
10-28 22:51:13	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	97¢	$49	0xb8436c…
10-28 21:05:59	Will the median home value in Miami be between $809,000 and $830,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xdf9df9…
10-28 20:52:35	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	60¢	$33	0x83c28b…
10-28 20:41:35	Will the median home value in NYC be less than $445,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	120	29¢	$35	0x6fe1c6…
10-28 20:25:46	Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	38¢	$8	0x12b491…
10-28 15:57:41	Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	23¢	$26	0x0844e8…
10-28 12:08:34	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x56522d…
10-27 17:51:26	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	29¢	$21	0x7ca642…
10-27 13:31:45	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	126	26¢	$32	0xe30ed7…
10-27 13:29:41	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x3e3eda…
10-27 12:10:00	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be above 4%?	Yes	SELL	107	30¢	$32	0xdb0dee…
10-27 12:02:38	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x4774aa…
10-27 12:02:20	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	614	23¢	$142	0xeb6351…
10-27 11:52:32	Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0xda36cc…
10-27 09:00:30	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x632028…
10-27 08:48:08	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$8	0xb6b24e…
10-26 13:15:33	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x1953da…
10-26 13:10:20	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x7b5adf…
10-26 12:02:29	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	SELL	87	31¢	$27	0x8c1f7f…
10-26 10:36:08	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	BUY	33	28¢	$9	0x3c4979…
10-26 09:13:06	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	30¢	$20	0x2c904e…
10-26 09:13:05	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	29¢	$16	0xacf091…
10-26 09:13:05	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x78b49a…
10-26 09:13:05	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	30¢	$5	0x676ded…
10-26 09:08:56	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	27	27¢	$7	0xc2fc94…
10-26 08:59:50	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	48	28¢	$14	0x07643d…
10-26 08:59:36	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	334	16¢	$53	0x4e363b…
10-26 08:59:11	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	214	38¢	$80	0x4f35a5…
10-26 08:38:03	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	SELL	432	33¢	$142	0xfbe456…
10-26 07:43:59	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) Q3 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.5M?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x38910a…
10-26 07:43:56	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) Q3 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.5M?	No	BUY	72	50¢	$36	0xcc001c…
10-26 07:30:23	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	111	63¢	$70	0x85ef3c…
10-26 03:04:41	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xb4c690…
10-25 22:02:11	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xf0aeda…
10-25 20:04:48	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	19	63¢	$12	0x602f0b…
10-25 19:48:57	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xa04c01…
10-25 19:48:51	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x232214…
10-25 19:48:41	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x760411…
10-25 19:48:35	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x730061…
10-25 19:48:20	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xfd2819…
10-25 18:37:54	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	Yes	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x7bb072…
10-25 15:39:42	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0x577588…
10-25 14:13:38	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x4d8d78…
10-25 12:41:42	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0xf04e0b…
10-25 12:28:51	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x92e84f…
10-25 12:21:00	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0e3c54…
10-25 12:19:48	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x54a1a4…
10-25 12:09:45	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0xd918df…
10-25 11:48:12	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x5e985b…
10-24 22:45:20	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 3.00 to 3.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	SELL	223	18¢	$40	0x1f8235…
10-24 20:50:33	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0xb2cacd…
10-24 19:17:21	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0x09bf38…
10-24 19:06:21	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x109438…
10-24 14:01:38	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	SELL	155	63¢	$98	0x2ff9cc…
10-24 14:01:38	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x000fdb…
10-24 13:39:06	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xdd619c…
10-24 13:39:06	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0x518b13…
10-24 13:39:06	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	313	25¢	$78	0x259881…
10-24 13:02:03	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x42c14c…
10-24 12:48:51	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x363aee…
10-24 12:16:57	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x6b42f0…
10-24 11:48:09	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x734312…
10-24 11:47:42	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3a0e9a…